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[–] 131 points 1 day ago* (55 children)

Huang admitted in August that major cloud providers are moving away from Nvidia in favor of in-house chips, leaving Nvidia staring down a massive oversupply of prepaid TSMC silicon and memory that was “coming at him like an ‘avalanche'”.

I've been claiming this RAM shortage could end very suddenly, because bankruptcies could void most 3 year advance orders in a matter of days.
This kind of proves it if true. It doesn't even have to be bankruptcies!!

My guess is that we will have cheap RAM already next year. 😀

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  • [–] 74 points 1 day ago (2 children)

    I just want some HDDs for my server, that’s all. Is that too much to ask? They’re fire now. $300 for a 4tb HDD? That’s a crime.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 day ago (14 children)

    cheap RAM already next year.

    Unlikely because ram has been retooled for hbm server gpus. It will be another year before it's back to ddr5.

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  • [–] 13 points 1 day ago (8 children)

    So cheap GPUs then? I could live with that.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago (7 children)

    The Datacenter GPUs can’t be used for graphics, unfortunately.

    Now, if you want a compute firesale…

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (5 children)

    If someone or some group could figure out a way to get them working for normal people they could make a lot of money even if it's not easy like resoldering components or something

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  • [–] 8 points 1 day ago* (4 children)

    It’s not a software limitation. Datacenter GPUs physically do not have ROPs; they cannot render games.

    Nvidia removed them on the H100. The A100 technically has some, but not enough to perform well.

    AMD removed them even earlier, on the MI100 at the very least.


    …But if you are interested in workstation compute stuff?

    Datacenter GPUs are great at that. I look forward to picking up a firesale B100 someday.

    Also, there is already a group hacking them on the Level 1 Tech forums. But they are trying to unlock the motherboards to use them for compute, not graphics.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (3 children)

    Workstation compute - like CAD? Video rendering?

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  • [–] 3 points 1 day ago* (2 children)

    Not CAD. Pretty much anything that’s “real time graphics” needs ROPs.

    But Blender rendering, yes. Works great on datacenter GPUs.

    It goes well beyond that. There’s tons of stuff GPU compute is useful for; personally, I want a B200 for video/image processing and for more “old school” machine learning experimentation.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    Is CAD real time? I know there's a rendered preview but I mainly think of the solver running on the GPU when I think of CAD hardware acceleration

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago

    Hard to say how much of the demand induced price increases are based on anticipated chips for future purchase under multi-year contracts that may simply evaporate. Often prices are based on future predictions, not here-and-now supply ane demand.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago*

    This argument completely ignores that consumer electronics are being used for this stuff as well and while cheap server grade components might not be directly usable, it'll cascade down the entire industry freeing up a lot of the consumer components that were bought up.

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  • [–] 14 points 1 day ago (4 children)

    The only thing more exciting than prices correcting is having cheap ram subsidized by Nvidia shareholders.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    I don't think that's how it works, I bet Nvidia is making a huge profit on that RAM.
    When the prices collapse, we don't need RAM to be subsidized, and for now RAM is expensive because of Nvidia.
    So I don't really follow your logic.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    Nvidia will have paid some money to the manufacturer. Even if they do not accept all the chips they'll owe some money for breaking the contract. I can twist that in my head to imagine the consumer chips will be subsidized by that money. Let me have this.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 day ago

    OK sorry for my skepticism, you are of course absolutely correct.
    For sure Nvidia will have paid for RAM production to have been expanded more over a period of 2-3 years. And that will help lower prices in the future.
    We will have cheap hardware soon, from factories subsidized by Nvidia. 😋

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  • [–] 12 points 1 day ago (15 children)

    The chips made for data centers aren’t consumer grade. I doubt there will be a sudden decrease in RAM prices even with a few bankruptcies.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 day ago (13 children)

    Funny how Sam Altman is complaining about RAM in ordinary PC's?

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  • [–] 23 points 1 day ago (10 children)

    Because sam is an idiot,but he probably is talking about future ram. Insteadof the basic componemts going towards future personal ram, he wants everythong diverted to the cloud.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 day ago (9 children)

    Sam is an idiot, let's just leave it at that and be in agreement. 😋

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  • [–] 18 points 1 day ago (4 children)

    No we can't, because the second part of my explanation makes the case that he is also evil. And Trump is a perfect example of how far being evil can get you, no matter how stupid you are.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 day ago* (3 children)

    OK an evil idiot, I'm absolutely fine with that too. 👍
    I also agree regarding Trump, and let's throw in Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Zuckerberg et al.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    If we were to leave it at him being an evil idiot - which he is - that still leaves him at the helm. He still gets to dictate what goes where because there are always useful idiots who will follow those dollars right into their own destruction in the name of ultimately making the evil idiot more rich.

    It can't be left alone. I don't have anything like a realistic answer besides "make a law or ten prohibiting such people from doing such things and acquiring such incomprehensible wealth and power," but outside of that I've got the same secret dark wish as everybody else; that Ryuuk will drop his Death Note at my feet and then I'll rearrange society that way. Otherwise, I got nothin'.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (2 children)

    Problem here is USA, not Trump, not Musk, not Jensen Huang. It's USA, everything else over there are symptoms of a sick society that Americans refuse to fix.
    30 years of Schools shootings, and they still refuse to tighten regulation!!

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    Preaching to the choir, my friend.

    I've been to protests and movements and the like. The system comes down hard on anything that has real grassroots potential. They were terrified of OWS back in the day. Its why they coordinated a nationwide simultaneous strike at east coast dawn to dismantle the entire movement.

    I've stared down cops with military gear in their military formations, using chemical weapons in their own city that would otherwise be considered a war crime while also using barricades as battering rams to pin groups of people against the side of a building while the rear line swarmed in with batons and zip ties. And that is after, mind you, they had sent groups in at midnight on the nose to literally destroy the encampments. Chainsaws were put through occupied tents, pharmacies were emptied of useful over-the-counter remedies for things like pepper spray and bruises - there wasn't even any tiger balm or Ben gay, I looked - and they just generally made sure to make everyone in that impromptu community as miserable as possible.

    It really is Altman and Musk and Trump who are the problem. They pay the politicians who gladly take the bribes to make sure they all stay fat together. The system allowed them to get so big, but it was last generation's fat cats who really made it possible for the greedy fucks of this generation to run this wild.

    Conservatives in this country have long hated the notion of an educated populace. That isn't unique to the US, but we went and took a sledgehammer to our education system over the course of my life and I actively voted against those policies. Outvoted by the idiots.

    Get rid of all that money and influence at the top and things stand a chance of actually changing. As it stands, money makes the rules and the rules say money gets to make the rules, so sucks to suck then doesn't it you filthy poor? That's life for most thinking Americans.

    This blue wave is something like a fluttering of hope, but it could also just be the final twitches a corpse lets out as all brain activity shuts down. We shall see.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago*

    You are a hero for taking up the fight. 👍 😀

    It really is Altman and Musk and Trump who are the problem.

    No it's the society that has allowed them to become so powerful. more than half a century of both American parties working for the 1%. The 1% never used to be as powerful as they are today.

    The Republicans are insane, and progress needs to be found with the Democrats as the lesser evil. But mind you, they are ONLY the lesser evil, they are still evil. Luckily DSA had a good midterm election, those are the kinds of people that are willing to change things to reestablish balance in American democracy. So-called moderate Democrats are what we in Europe call clearly right wing.

    This blue wave is something like a fluttering of hope, but it could also just be the final twitches a corpse lets out as all brain activity shuts down. We shall see.

    Yes unfortunately, I too am only cautiously optimistic about that.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 day ago

    That's not the point. The problem is that these giant AI datacenter buyers have signed contracts promising to reserve all of the chip foundries' future production for however many years. The chips causing this "shortage" for the most part aren't even made yet.

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  • And without much complications to the "market". Since the 3 yrs supply they "bought" in advance was never paid for. Find a way to void the contracts and start making stuff people actually want to buy. It's not like nvidia is going to actually pay them at this point. E:typo

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  • [–] 7 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    I've said it before, but there's a reason SanDisk was happy to sign multi year contracts to provide storage at fixed prices. That is not a bet on hardware staying expensive. That's a tech company that's been around thinking the prices in 2026 are as good as they were going to get moving forward.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    My guess is that we will have cheap RAM already next year. 😀

    Maybe. Taiwan amount for 2-3% of the global RAM production, only. When - some say if, but it doesn't look like it - China decides to start a war with Taiwan and it turns out they can't invade the island in just a few weeks, it could have an effect on their RAM production. China covers 10%. Other RAM manufacturers: South Korea 63%, Japan, also would be affected, I guess?

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    The companies switching to in-house chips will still need other companies to do the manufacturing. If Nvidia cut its reserved production capacity it would just go to those other companies. Demand for Nvidia's data center stuff is down, but that doesn't necessarily mean demand for data center stuff is down overall.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago

    No not automatically it doesn't, in house could increase equally to the decline of Nvidia.
    But in practice I think it does a lot, because in house will be built on way more efficient models. And Nvidia is at the center of a huge circular financial scheme mostly off the books, that is driving the AI bubble. If the AI bubble bursts, demand will most definitely plummet.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago* (5 children)

    The AI bubble bursting might take us into yet another "once in a generation" recession, but at least we'd finally be able to actually buy computer parts again!

    I mean the orange turd's war with Iran already skyrocketed the cost of living crisis in the west, so we might as well get a recession to pair with it like a nice Chianti.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (4 children)

    Everything could be so good, but instead we are so fucked. And notice how USA is consistently on the bad side of things!!!
    Maybe Americans voting for a sociopath was a bad idea IDK?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago* (3 children)

    We don't know that the country actually voted for him and that he didn't falsify election vote totals, directly in between the first time we know he tried to falsify election vote totals, the first time we witnessed him try to violently overthrow the government, and the most recent time we know he tried to falsify election vote totals.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

    We don’t know that the country actually voted for him

    Yes we do, because there is no evidence to the contrary apart from tinfoil hat conspiracies.
    So there is no rational reason to believe Trump didn't win.

    we know he tried to falsify election vote totals

    Yes when he lost in 2020 he tried that, and he was so clumsy his attempts were revealed, and they all failed.
    Then he tried a coup, and Americans were fine with that, and said, OK that's fine, let him run again.
    If you are making bullshit excuses you are not facing reality. Wake up, half the American populations are made up of idiots and psychopaths and religious nuts.

    and the most recent time we know he tried to falsify election vote totals.

    And Americans are allowing it. They do not defend their democracy, and for 30 years they've done nothing to improve on their obsolete joke of a democracy.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (1 child)
    1. He tried to falsify vote totals in 2020.

    2. He tried to overthrow the government in 2021.

    3. He won fair and square in 2024.

    4. He tried to falsify vote totals in 2026.

    Sure, Jan.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 day ago*

    Trying to falsify does not mean they were successfully falsified.
    Your logic is flawed.

    In 2020 he tried and failed despite he had the position of US President and executive power to leverage the efforts.
    In 2024 he did NOT have that privilege, obviously making it harder, AND there is no evidence.

    Wear your tinfoil hat as you please, I'm not joining that circus.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    I just dont understand the "in-house" chips part. What in-house chips?

    Later in the article they mention "alternative" chip manufacturers. What alternative manufacturers? AMD?

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  • [–] 9 points 1 day ago

    Google, Amazon and Huawei have their own in-house chips. Probably many more, because it's become way easier to make chips in-house. But of course they are still produced by TSMC or some other chip manufacturer.

    AMD is not a chip manufacturer in the sense of having their own manufacturing, all manufacturing is outsourced same as Nvidia.
    Intel, TSMC, Samsung are the main CPU manufacturers as in having actual factories. Then there are 4 companies manufacturing most of the RAM. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and a Chinese company I think it's called CXMT.

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    [–] 15 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 child)

    Interesting. Fabricated scarcity to justify highway robbery prices. They've been choking out a fuckton of very powerful industries, not just the gaming industry.

    I hope they get sued to oblivion.

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  • [–] 58 points 1 day ago (8 children)

    Steve from Gamers Nexus has been screaming from the roof tops for a couple of years now, but all the “mainstream news outlets” that are supposed to be for the people, ignored him and kept praising goldfish-face Jensen and made him look like a god with his ugly-ass leather jacket.

    We all saw it from the very beginning. It’s all about the short term gains and to make those graphs point upwards. It doesn’t matter the means and the consequences of that, just make sure they go up. That’s it. Fuck you and me average fucks who just want to buy 2TB of storage for their pc or a fucking 32GB of RAM. Y’all in the West seriously need to bring back guillotines and public execution.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 day ago (4 children)

    Y’all in the West seriously need to bring back guillotines and public execution.

    Wouldn't help—there's no deterrent effect, because people like this have too much ego to even consider that they might be caught. We need to start catching them before they make a mess.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    Wouldn’t help—there’s no deterrent effect, because people like this have too much ego to even consider that they might be caught.

    That is a testable hypothesis.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago (2 children)

    Historical data is enough. There was no sudden surge in crime rates when public executions ceased in the West. The deterrent effect is zilch—people treated it like a theatrical performance, not a criminal penalty. That's why we don't do it anymore.

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  • we need to fuck the ram market so badly people making cases and power supplies go out of business.

    then do nothing with it

    in service to building the machine whose three settings are 'degrade artists' 'flood the zone with shit' and 'project the past onto the future and normalize boots on necks forever'.

    I love this guy

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  • [–] 6 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    Why are there people even defending this piece of shit?

    Dunno, haven't seen that happen anywhere

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  • [–] 3 points 1 day ago

    So, good news, then?

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  • [–] 5 points 1 day ago (2 children)

    May the universe hear my prayers and kill this piece of shit human being.

    Woah, such violence.

    May his socks always curl under his toes forever.

    See? Same amount of pain, no violence.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 day ago*

    May he fall in a hole and never get out.

    You can also imply some grisly possibilites without stating it directly.. or who knows, maybe he just likes it in there and wants to stay. Could be full of chinese honey or something, idk.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 child)

    It makes sense that general purpose hardware would just be a stopgap for data centers who need to run one very specific workload like LLM prefill at the lowest cost possible. Nvidia’s exact target market who want general purpose hardware for a variety of tasks like running games, Blender, video editors, and some ML models now can’t afford it. Not to worry, though. Even if a B200 sucks at prefill compared to purpose-built hardware, I’m sure a lot of us would happily buy one or two for like $100 each.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 day ago*

    An issue with LLM inference is that the software architecture changes significantly, very quickly, and the combination of Nvidia’s software support + some architectural flexibility makes GPUs quite advantageous for that.

    Just as an example, everyone saw KV cache as this existential limiting factor for LLMs. Now, it’s tiny. Another is the old dense model paradigm vs. the almost comically sparse ones coming out. Even matrix-multiply compute could be rendered irrelevant if Bitnet gains traction.

    And that’s not to speak of training.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    He artificially created the RAM and GPU crisis.

    GPU maybe. RAM was Altman. Need a scorecard to keep the players straight.

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