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[–] 182 points 10 months ago (12 children)

Infinite energy for all is cancelled.

Infinite wealth for the shareholders will go ahead instead.

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  • [–] 85 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    “If," ["the management consultant"] said tersely, “we could for a moment move on to the subject of fiscal policy. . .” “Fiscal policy!" whooped Ford Prefect. “Fiscal policy!" The management consultant gave him a look that only a lungfish could have copied. “Fiscal policy. . .” he repeated, “that is what I said.” “How can you have money,” demanded Ford, “if none of you actually produces anything? It doesn't grow on trees you know.” “If you would allow me to continue.. .” Ford nodded dejectedly. “Thank you. Since we decided a few weeks ago to adopt the leaf as legal tender, we have, of course, all become immensely rich.” Ford stared in disbelief at the crowd who were murmuring appreciatively at this and greedily fingering the wads of leaves with which their track suits were stuffed. “But we have also,” continued the management consultant, “run into a small inflation problem on account of the high level of leaf availability, which means that, I gather, the current going rate has something like three deciduous forests buying one ship’s peanut." Murmurs of alarm came from the crowd. The management consultant waved them down. “So in order to obviate this problem,” he continued, “and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on a massive defoliation campaign, and. . .er, burn down all the forests. I think you'll all agree that's a sensible move under the circumstances." The crowd seemed a little uncertain about this for a second or two until someone pointed out how much this would increase the value of the leaves in their pockets whereupon they let out whoops of delight and gave the management consultant a standing ovation. The accountants among them looked forward to a profitable autumn aloft and it got an appreciative round from the crowd.”

    ― Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

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  • [–] 55 points 10 months ago (9 children)

    Infinite gold would be useful for electronics, but it would destroy gold's utility as a long-term store of value. So the wealth for shareholders would be finite, taken from today's gold holders.

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  • [–] 9 points 10 months ago (6 children)
  • [–] 7 points 10 months ago (5 children)

    I'm no physicist, but it seems like once transmutation is a thing, it won't stop here.

    It would be like a quantum computer breaking Bitcoin and so we fall back on Ethereum.

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  • [–] 11 points 10 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    I don't know, if you gather one proton's and two neutrons worth of energy, localized entirely within the supposed space of an atom, you could generate mass from energy. However, what that energy converts into, is entirely random, so I would guess most of the time you just get realllly high energy photons out of it.

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  • [–] 4 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    so we just smash thosse photons into each other until we get a hydrogen! by josh you're onto something

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  • [–] 4 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    You have seen the equations? 99% you don't get anything useful or somehow split the fucking universe, so that time-reversed flow of information won't break the causality. (And it fucking does break the universe, the local bubble we are in. Please, don't google false-vacuum.) We don't even know the speed of light in one-direction, because information travels at the fucking speed of light, whatever that is. Yet, you measure a spin of electron, and the other fucker in the opposite side of the universe, is known to be opposite in the instant.

    The action is minimized by nature, in one way or other, even if this means punching a hole in the space-time continuum, to start a tree-of-universes descending from the host.

    /s (I had enough beer for today.)

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  • [–] 79 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    I'd really love to travel back in time and first amaze an alchemist that their future colleagues will be able to turn lead into gold. Only to crush them again by explaining that the process is too expensive.

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  • [–] 37 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    I mean I guess the concept there though is, isn't making things into gold pointless anyway. We can lab make diamonds too, the jewelry industry works to keep them as a distinct alternate product to protect their slave mined ones. Is the quantity used for electronics enough that it would make a difference in typical manufacturing?

    Actually kind of the ironic thing to me based on the time. Did gold have a practical use in the days of alchemy? I mean obviously mass producing gold, basically would have made it completely useless back then, it could make a small group of people very rich, provided they kept the method secret and were careful about how much they sold. It seems like the whole idea was flawed on it's head even if they hadn't based it on completely incorrect basis of the world.

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  • [–] 27 points 10 months ago*

    The jewelry and investment industries make up 45-50% of gold consumption. Practical and industrial uses make up only 5-10%.

    As such, while flooding the market with cheap gold would rapidly lower value, that's unlikely to be how the gold is sold. If the amount of gold being generated from fusion reactors is orders of magnitude less than the global consumption rate from jewelry and investment, which seems likely, and they are selling at our near market value rather than trying to undercut everyone, then the value of the generated gold would remain relatively stable.

    in other words, considering that the gold market generates something like $350bn USD per year, and the total market value of "above ground" gold around $25tn USD, even if fusion reactors generate $1bn USD worth of gold it would have a negligible impact on the price of gold while providing significant value to the reactor operators (incentivizing the growth of the fusion reactor industry)

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  • [–] 4 points 10 months ago*

    Alchemists (correctly) observed that everything in the world was subject to disorder and decay as time progressed, but noted that gold seemed to be immune to this effect (since it is highly resistant to oxidation). Add into that the belief system that they were working with:

    • That everything in the world exists on a chain of being from the most corrupt at the bottom to the most noble on top (with god being most high).

    • That everything is really the same thing, and through physical processes changes its form, including up and down the chain.

    And they belived that if they could figure out how to transmute a lesser metal into a more noble one then they could probably move other things up the chain of being as well. Which is why the Philospher's Stone was supposed to make people unaging and immortal, and cure all disease, in addition to transmuting lesser metals into gold. Alchemists like John of Rupescissa probably belived that creating the Stone would also bring the world closer to the divine in some way, and it was god's wish for mortals to do this.

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  • [–] 53 points 10 months ago (12 children)

    arxiv.org: a pre-print source, this is not peer-reviewed yet. So, until other papers refer to this paper, it has low significance in the literature. The paper has references to other papers and to previous corpus of knowledge on the subject, which is good. However, this paper is based on simulations only.

    Crucially, the scheme identified here does not negatively impact electricity production, and is also compatible with the challenging tritium breeding requirements of fusion power plant design because (n, 2n) reactions of 198Hg drive both transmutation and neutron multiplication

    Monte Carlo transport calculations show that neutrons produced in a tokamak power plant can convert the abundant isotope 198Hg to stable 197Au via the (n,2n) channel, yielding several tonnes of gold per plant-year without compromising the tritium breeding ratio.

    The decommissioned blanket material would increase in value, and the Mercury-198 in the blanket doesn't majorly impact its effectiveness in transmuting lithium to tritium.

    The "worst" gold isotope half-life is less than a year, so only a modest cool-down is needed for the output:

    197Au to be Class 7 when activity concentration is > 2700 pCi/g, which is reached after 13.7 years for the initial concentration listed.

    An even more stringent constraint can be applied for any gold that will be regularly handled by the general population. As a highly conservative requirement, we can stipulate that this gold must be less radioactive than a banana. Due to 40K content, bananas have an activity of ∼ 3520 pCi/kg, or about 420 pCi for a single banana. To meet this requirement, a troy ounce of gold with the initial isotope mix shown in Table 2 must sit for about 17.7 years to be below a banana equivalent level of activity.

    What strikes me here with this paper is the suggested liquid blanket, so this would be a kin of D-T Fusion MSR. We now have two proposed technologies behind being able handle hot radioactive liquids.

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  • [–] 9 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    It also helps that we're talking about rather dense nuclei too. So it's not just a neutron absorbing blanket, but a rather high-performing one at that. Which you need to convert fusion outputs to heat and power anyway. And gold is soluble in mercury anyway, so extraction is already a known (albeit incredibly dangerous) process. Win-win.

    yielding several tonnes of gold per plant-year

    Mother of god that's a lot to magic-up outta nowhere. At first I thought this would disrupt the market, but it looks like yearly global gold production is around 3000 tons a year. So it would take a lot of reactors to impact the gold market, so... yeah. Reactors really could start paying for themselves.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago (7 children)

    The safe level isn't that important, because the gold can be put into an ETF investment vehicle, which is a substantial enough demand for gold. National reserves (the vast majority of gold demand) too are long term holders.

    2t/GWhth is a huge amount. While the best case economics for fusion is 30c/kwh cost = $3m/Gwhe, that would be 3GWhth = 6T of gold. Even at $45/oz (1/100th of current value) that would be $8m/Gwhe revenue, and would likely be able to sell electricity at market rates as the "waste product", or not even bother with the expense/complexity of electricity generation.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago (6 children)

    Wouldn't the constant stream of new gold tank the market value?

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Look at the gold price for the last 10 years, it's steadily rising. We keep producing more electronics that need gold. At the same time some gold is lost because not in all tech it can be easily recycled. On top of that gold mining is becoming more expensive because a lot of easily accessible gold has been mined out.

    So even if this technology could create additional gold in the future it probably won't out scale the growing demand.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago (2 children)

    global mine production is 10t per day. 120t/day from single 1gw e plant does sink value substantially, but is a drop in the bucket compared to 80k tons of copper/day. Gold is a better copper I think, so maybe a floor value of $20/kg. But to subsidize fusion energy by 20c/kwh, it needs to stay above $11/oz . Gold is also a better silver, but silver production is 80t/day, and so gold is unlikely to hold that threshhold value.

    A bigger deal is that we are collectively too politically stupid to have "golden goose fusion". Our blessed oligarchs deserve better than their heathen oligarchs, and it is perfectly normal to diminish and warcruise them. Nuclear power already isn't war resilient, and destroying one is something Ukraine has seen propaganda value in doing due to media control that would blame Russia for it. So, our collective stupidity is already at extreme levels. But the play in golden goose fusion is buy all the ultra cheap gold after mine closures, and then destroy all the golden geese. Destroy all attempts to build new ones.

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  • [–] 26 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    I thought they were going to make helium since it is non-renewable and humans are using it at an unsustainable rate.

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Isn't that half the plan of Helion Energy?

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  • [–] 8 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Helion got really quiet since that last venture push :)

    I've seen a few pretty solid questions about the lack of shielding around their running equipment being a red flag that their output is nowhere near what they claimed.

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  • [–] 24 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Here's a link to the paper, HTH, HAND.

    This is entirely over my head, unfortunately, but massively amusing!

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  • [–] 21 points 10 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    You can't spell "demonstrations" without "demon" (or "monstra").

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

    Demon I think comes from the Latin meaning "Show" and "money" also comes from "demonstra" to "show or represent value,from in terms of the hellish entity comes from "Demonic spirits" as in "the ones who show themselves, as opposed to the spirits that don't show themselves. "Monster" comes from monstra, which is from demonstra, a monster is a specific spirit that shows itself.

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  • [–] 21 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Wasn't the plan to use the neutrons generated by D-T fusion to generate more tritium because it is very rare on Earth? Didn't they even not have enough neutrons to generate enough tritium for self sustaining fueling of fusion that the current plan is to use a beryllium blanket to multiply the neutron flux? Where would the extra neutrons for gold transmutation even come from? Waste from the tritium breeding?

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    It looks that way.

    Monte Carlo transport calculations show that neutrons produced in a tokamak power plant can convert the abundant isotope 198Hg to stable 197Au via the (n,2n) channel, yielding several tonnes of gold per plant-year without compromising the tritium breeding ratio.

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  • [–] 19 points 10 months ago

    Coward didn't even call it alchemy in the abstract

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  • [–] 19 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    nuclear physics is just modern alchemy

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  • [–] 18 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    I feel like this is one of those things governments might get paranoid about because their treasuries are based on a high (constantly increasing increasing due to limited amount) value of gold. Imagine one country figuring out how to produce gold and then every other treasury starts losing it's value.

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  • [–] 14 points 10 months ago (5 children)

    I wonder what the next "ground currency" will be once we can replicate everything at the atomic level. I'm hoping it's human trust

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  • [–] 15 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    As soon as they figure out how to turn lead into porn, we'll be driving personal fusion powered space cars to mars.

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  • [–] 18 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    My first thought was “what happens to all that gold under neutron irradiation?” Apparently it transmutes back to Mercury 198 with beta decay, which is the wrong isotope. But if Mercury 198 gets hit again… I think it turns into 199, which is also stable?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold-198

    A lot of papers for these reactions are behind stupid subscription paywalls :(

    Still though, it does seem extremely fortuitous, and it’s possible the gold doesn’t become impossibly radioactive. Maybe there’s some other chain that will cause problems, but the immediate concern in the bulk materials seems… alright.

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago*

    uhm... if gold198 turns back into mercury in 64 hours, and is radioactive in the meantime.... that sucks. But what they are doing is turning Mercury198 into mercury197, and that decays into (real) gold197 .... afaiu.

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  • [–] 7 points 10 months ago

    This is rich!

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  • [–] 7 points 10 months ago

    And just like that gold is a proof of work currency. Too bad those economics will change as gold becomes less scarce. Buy mercury now!

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  • [–] 11 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Deuterium-tritium sounds a lot like stuff from star trek

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago
    [–] 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (3 children)

    I wouldnt believe shit until they’ve answered the stability behind these reactions. Like the Lead article where they transformed lead into another element maybe Gold…? Ok but now you would have an unstable isotope of gold that would decay.

    Edit: I read the article and it’s stable in theory.

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  • [–] 16 points 10 months ago*

    Homie, Au-197 is what's being created, as stated in the screenshot, and it is the stable isotope of gold. It's the naturally occurring one.

    And the reaction doesn't need to be especially stable on its own when it is a bonus byproduct of existing fusion reactor processes. The point is that we can take existing and new reactors, add this process, and immediately gain significantly extra value from the stuff we're already doing.

    it's like hybrid electric cars that charge their batteries using the brakes. You're already braking and losing a ton of energy as waste. ANY way to recapture and use that waste energy that yields more value than the materials required to capture it, is an immediate win.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago*

    Another thing fusion reactors would be good for is “burning” high radioactivity fission waste.

    …Keeping such waste in a hole isn’t that expensive, so maybe the economic viability is questionable, but still. Fusion is great sources of very high temperature neutrons for anything that needs it.

    That being said, I’m skeptical of all the other stuff needed to make it practical. Like, say, the extreme neutron flux making all that incredible expensive containment equipment radioactive.

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago

    Singularity Sky is not the torment nexus I expected.

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  • [–] 4 points 10 months ago* (4 children)

    https://www.marathonfusion.com/alchemy.pdf

    https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/government-funded-alchemy

    tldr from that blog's assessment:

    First, the researchers have a high degree of credential credibility. [...] These are very much not software engineers who think they’ve solved alchemy after talking with ChatGPT for a year or something.

    [...]

    Optimistically, in my mind this leaves about 10% odds that fusion energy becomes commercialized or at least piloted over the next couple decades and Marathon Fusion’s approach for the alchemical production of gold becomes a meaningful consideration for these fusion plants! That’s pretty high, and implies a high value for continuing to research this technology, even if not necessarily for Marathon Fusion specifically. Manifold [a prediction market] traders are giving this proposition ("Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?") ~20% odds, which likely reflects the discount rate on a market that only resolves in 10 years, although it also leaves room for other potential methodologies for gold production (presumably also through fusion energy but who knows).

    [...]

    Oh ya, this Gold is Radioactive

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  • [–] 12 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    I... don't know if I want to believe someone who cites a gambling site as a credible source.

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago (1 child)
    1. Prediction market is a tool to predict a future more accurately than asking people what will happen[1][2]
    2. You can't cash out on manifold.markets so I would not mark it as gambling unlike polymarket. It works like premium in-game currency
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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago

    Yeah, I don't think "asking people what will happen" is a reliable way to measure pretty much anything, let alone the future, so being more accurate than that is whatever. Additionally, I tried to find where the substack got his numbers for these chances from, and it seems like the answer is out of his ass? So that isn't very credible either in my opinion.

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  • [+] -7 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Shit like this is what makes me question if this is our first run around or if we are looping a creation/destruction loop.

    Ancient astronauts.

    Younger dryas.

    Unified flood myths.

    Objects out of place in the larger historical context.

    No historical records past cave paintings.

    I'm just a bit of a nutter on this. Maybe alchemy was us trying to re-enact what our more advanced ancestors could do before something reset us. Maybe we were so advanced everything was digital and that's why there's no records. Books break down. Digital media breaks down. Know what doesn't? Stone. But you can only do so much to tell people thousands of years from now. So you do what you can do. Oral storytelling, but then languages get lost and evolve but things persist.

    It's a great concept for fantasy or sci Fi.

    Anyways I digress.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

    It's a neat idea for sure, but the out of place artifacts are rarely/never as mysterious as people like Graham Hancock would suggest.

    Younger Dryas wasn't as catastrophic either. Nor are flood myths as unified.

    It's fun to imagine possibilities like that but I can't conceive of how a society could advance to a nonphysical/digital technology paradigm without impacting the earth in enormously detectable ways.

    I think it's interesting to imagine a scenario like what if European explorers shipwrecked on a place like Rapa Nui, the most isolated inhabitable place on the planet. How many generations could they maintain knowledge of the globe, and their culture.

    Obviously the Polynesians basically maintained their language (ie it was identifiable as a polynesian dialect) for ~500+ years in plausibly total isolation.

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  • [–] -3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (3 children)

    Fun fact joke: The chemistry of oils is called "Öl-Chemie" in german which sounds almost like alchemy.

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  • [–] 11 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Unfortunately this is only fun, not fact. The actual word is "Petrochemie".

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago (1 child)

    Does that term apply to just petroleum based oils or does it include essential oils extracted from plants, herbs, etc?

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago

    I looked and I couldn't find a use of the term "Ölchemie", however I am pretty sure that for all other oils, there were never enough chemical processes to have a need in finding a name for a branch of the chemical industry, as for "Petrochemie". But yes, per the Etymologie link that I looked at, "Petrochemie" comes from greek "petros" for rock, and "ol" for oil - technically (and the article mentioned the same) it should be "Petrolchemie" which makes it closer to the "Alchemy" joke the previous commenter was making :)

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