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[–] 61 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

Sadly I fear worse, the bulk of people will adapt in the stupidest way...

What's coming... is obvious. When the AI bubble bursts, there will be an absurd amount more data centers than use for them... and all the hardware is in forms that aren't going to be convertable into consumer devices.

What's going to happen is what microsoft, amazon, and google have been dreaming of for a decade... Remember google Stadia, Luna etc...

People won't be buying PCs... they will be buying, thin clients. Your PC will just stream your hardware from a data center. The music and movie industries will be happy because the providers can scan for pirated content... governments may flat out ban individuals from owning personal computers, that's a security risk they can't control, they are already looking into bills to prevent personal AI systems. No worries of people bypassing age verification, or running custom OS's or firmware that can't be controlled.

Best of all it's super profitable, instead of a few grand for a one time purchase, they can hit you up every month... and gradually raise the prices like cable, like movie streaming. Maybe even vendor lockouts... you gotta stream an MS computer to get access to office 365, but you'll also need an amazon subscription to run some other applications, or games or whatever they locked in exclusivity for.

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  • [–] 26 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

    this is all based on the premise that an individual can afford the plethora of products and services on offer.

    i think more or less that’s it’s difficult to foresee what will happen in the next 5 years.

    what i believe people have a hard time understanding is that there is no such thing as “too large to fail”. it only takes a handful of poor decisions for a company to fail, and many more better decisions for it to succeed.

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  • [–] 18 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    what i believe people have a hard time understanding is that there is no such thing as “too large to fail”.

    Well, I don't think people generally think that literally anymore. Nowadays what it ends up meaning is that if the company is such a monolith central to modern life, it can make the stupidest decisions imaginable and simply be "propped up" by sucking money out of our pockets.

    Less "They're too big to fail" and more "They won't let it fail, even if it should."

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago

    I'll give up on technology before becoming dependent on the cloud. I'm set with what I have now for at least a decade, I'll downsize down to my last RPi or equivalent if I can't get components.

    I brought my 23 year old IBM x31 back to life last year just to see if I could, and it's happy to be dragged kicking and screaming until 2031, when I'm pretty sure it'll no longer be supported in the Linux kernel. I'll do it with the rest of my devices if I have to while cannibalizing components to keep others going.

    I can probably completely disconnect my network from the internet and live happily on the services I have running and my library card.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    this is all based on the premise that an individual can afford the plethora of products and services on offer.

    That's the neat part, your access can be dialed down. Oh you can't afford the normal plan... what about buying in 5 minute increments, what about with ads? They will be able to match you for what you deserve with your current earnings.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 weeks ago*

    What you describe needs continued investment into datacenters, which will be a no go when the bubble pops. The hardware doesn't last forever (avg. life expectancy is somewhere around 6 years iirc), and running that hardware also isn't free at all.

    Add to that that you can nowadays run Cyberpunk 2077 on medium detail with 60 FPS on a freaking Android Phone with FEX and Proton, and personal computing is far from dead, regardless of what they want.

    Edit: I'd rather expect mainboards that make HBM available for consumer PCs to pop up, and that hardware for personal inference drops in price dramatically.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 weeks ago

    At that point you connect your phone to a screen and use that to handle what is needed for paying bills and schoolwork instead of yet another subscription. It's after the AI bubble pops, so Greatest Depression time and nobody got spare cash for more services.

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  • [–] 121 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

    Saw this coming when Microsoft admitted to have bought up loads of hardware they couldn't actually use yet. I'm convinced the data centre build out is to hoard all the computing capacity so we are forced to use their cloud services because our own hardware isn't capable.

    If this keeps up in a couple generations every personal computing device will essentially be a thin client with everything running remotely for a subscription.

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  • [–] 15 points 3 weeks ago

    Fuck their subscriptions. I'll game locally on the thin clients if I have to. 2034, 512MB of RAM? It will fucking run Doom! Fuck it I remember running a Minecraft server with 768MB of system memory back in 2011. It worked for over 10 people.

    Its going to be odd having really powerful CPUs and being limited by memory, what that leaves us able to run or not and how well it will run. Discord should be sweating, return to IRC!

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago

    Jokes on them, I have converted my entire workflow to be as simple as possible and I like playing retro games. I am good with using old "outdated" hardware.

    Hell my laptop is 10+ years old now.

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  • [–] 47 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

    You wish.

    In 2015 it would've shipped with a functional operating system.

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  • [–] 34 points 3 weeks ago (15 children)

    I am fucking 🤏 this close to starting a business where I just slam LMDE on poor people's laptops and put on LXQT and call it a day.

    The only problem is that if someone can't afford a new laptop, they can hardly afford to pay me.

    Also, I'm only good enough to just shove linux on a shitty computer, not be a 24/7 linux customiser. Also, getting paid to install linux on people's computers seems like it violates... something.

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  • [–] 33 points 3 weeks ago (11 children)

    Also, getting paid to install linux on people's computers seems like it violates... something.

    Nah, even the GNU people themselves explicitly encourage that.

    https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/selling.html

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  • [–] 8 points 3 weeks ago (10 children)

    awesome.

    Do you also have a solution for the other problem?

    The only problem is that if someone can’t afford a new laptop, they can hardly afford to pay me.

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  • [–] 16 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

    yea, lower your rates to something a bit less than the retail price of a new laptop.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

    Sure, but what's the price? Too low and it's not worth the bother, too high and the person that's trying to get a little extra mileage can't afford it. I don't know when I can run classes since I'm taking care of my kid or looking for work and battling mental health stuff.

    Also, I'm hardly Mr Torvalds, I can barely get my machine to work properly.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 weeks ago

    This is a calculation that anyone should do before starting a business: is it profitable?

    If you're genuinely serious about doing this, work out exactly what you're offering and how long it will take you to do this for each system. Then work out what you need per hour to live, and work it through. You should now have a ballpark figure for a single customer/system. You might need to tweak it a bit to allow for bits and bobs. Practice it a couple of times on any different systems you can get your hands on. Be ready for hardware challenges like different GPUs or other hardware.

    You may need to figure out ways of making things quicker/cheaper, by doing some jobs in parallel and automating some stuff with scripts. You may end up with, say, multiple flash drives with Ventoy containing a few images and some scripts.

    Be absolutely clear about what you're offering. It's important for potential customers to know that Linux isn't a Windows clone and it's not trying to be, and it may take a little time to adjust, but also not too strong on that as to put them off.

    Like you already identified, you don't want to be a 24hr support line afterwards. You may need to invest in some reference material to get them started, in the form of a quick reference booklet or some Peertube videos, or even just a collection of links to a hand-selected group of videos or sites that others have done.

    You may want to add extras, like data migration, but be careful not to have so many options as to confuse, and don't offer it so cheap as to screw yourself. The data migration side is a minefield because of things like save games, settings and all sorts of obscure applications that can hide their stuff in nooks and crannies. Again, be clear that it's only their docs and not all the other stuff. Also be clear that if they don't opt for data migration their stuff will be gone: it seems obvious but not everyone understands that. Factor these things into your prices: when you're advising people about the service you're not getting systems done.

    Support could be an extra, but again be careful of pricing: this is an area you could bankrupt yourself if you get your pricing wrong.

    I don't mean any of this to put you off at all. Running a business can be very rewarding and fulfilling, and could turn out to be the most awesome thing you've ever done. Depending on your commitments, you could try doing it as a side hustle to test out the market and refine your processes before diving in.

    And, most of all, good luck!

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    Do it in batches. You are charging for your time basically. So don't do them one at a time. Get a few USB installers, wait til you've got 5 or so ready to go, and then just do them all at once. Now you can charge less. I mean idk how much your thinking of charging but installing an OS isn't exactly difficult. Takes maybe 15 minutes.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago

    I've had the same thoughts as you a lot of the time! Very similar. I've been wanting to run install clinics at my local library but...I only work there part time sooo...they won't let me since it's far outside my job description.

    But as an outsider, you could look into hitting up your local library to run the occasional event. :D

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    Worked in a PC repair shop years ago, £50 to reinstall windows was a price people would pay fairly happily.

    If you get customers happy to wait for bulk work you could probably do better. Plus doing it at home means no workshop to pay rent on. If its something on the side of your main job, even better.

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  • [–] 19 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    You'd be getting paid for the service, not for the software, so it's fine

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  • [–] 26 points 3 weeks ago* (1 child)

    We allowed tech companies to have more money than entire countries by repealing the laws that forced them to reinvest their profits. They in turn bought out supplier's entire stock of RAM to stifle their competition and eventually remove tech ownership from the lower classes. This has nothing to do with AI and everything to do with greed.

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  • [–] 24 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

    Let's see the positive part of it! Now programmers will have to learn how to actually optimise their programs and NOT to use Electron, Tauri and any other hybrid framework ever again!! /s

    Looks around Oh fu- Everyones just vibecoding their shit

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  • [–] 22 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

    My Latitude from like 2019 with 32GB of DDR4 sure is feeling fancy these days.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    Same. My 2019 thinkpad is holding up surprisingly well, especially since I'm not running the bloated vibe slop mess that is Win 11.

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  • [–] 19 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

    Silver lining? Just maybe software vendors might be a little more careful with memory usage.

    I won't hold my breath though.

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  • [–] 15 points 3 weeks ago* (3 children)

    Nah, everything's gonna be a web app

    Wait no, everything's already a fucking web app

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  • [–] 14 points 3 weeks ago

    Welcome to the Brazilian personal computer experience. Enjoy!

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  • [–] 11 points 3 weeks ago

    Meanwhile at the Microsoft Store

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  • [–] 9 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

    I bought a computer in 2007 that was 8GB of RAM and a TB Hard-drive, but a recent windows update bricked the machine because it didn't have enough space. Is that what's going to happen to these machines? Just, right off-the-line and into the garbage?

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  • [–] 12 points 3 weeks ago

    Not sure, on Linux I don't really think about these things. Never had a computer become "bricked".

    Tbh it's great for the Linux community because we can pick them up secondhand cheap and continue using them.

    Brick more laptops Windows. 🐸

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  • [+] 8 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)
  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (5 children)

    Well what happened is it tried to update, got stuck, and now won't start. tried starting it over and over and over again while hitting F1 and F2 and it just spins it's fans. Though it randomly will start-up into a weird BIOS safe mode and give me a couple options, but I've yet to find the magic option that let's me boot it up using the previous version of windows just so I can turn it into a Linux machine. It's gotten to the point that I'm willing to pay someone to take it and convert it into Linux Fedora or Debian for me (and then pay for a quick tutorial in how tf Linux works 😭 )

    EDIT is this actually a service? If this exists I'll fucking do it, I swear

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    Guys guys chill. Just use Claude to reverse engineer everything you use in Rust and it'll all fit in 4gb

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  • [–] 5 points 3 weeks ago

    I need to be honest here. I bought my current "gaming" laptop in 2020 because my PC got struck by lightning right at the height of the last GPU crisis and I needed something. It came with 8gb of RAM, upgradable to 32 gb. I have never needed more. That system runs Cyberpunk at 100 steady fps, and I have no desire to play anything more graphically intense than that.

    That being said, I wanted to upgrade last year because it was possible. I looked up the price for SO-DIMM RAM right after it skyrocketed and said "nope, I'm good".

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago

    I had 32 gigs of RAM in the PC I built in 2015.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago

    I don't actually see the point of needing 48 GB for a notepad instance.

    Ah, yes, it runs on a framework of a framework and spies on me...

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago

    Just wait until AI sends most of us back to a time when we were unemployed.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

    8gb don't fit windows 11 plus chrome

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  • [–] 8 points 3 weeks ago

    Why the fuck is anyone still using Chrome when there's so many good forks of Firefox? I refuse to use any browser that doesn't support adblockers on principal. I haven't willingly seen an ad in over a decade and I'm not about to start doing that again.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

    That's why I run Linux, then Chrome can be unleashed. Who needs all those dumb spyware services gobbling up ram in the background or an update service that installs in the background only to snipe your presentation for an update.

    I also enjoy that Linux will roll upgrades easy-peasy, unlike Windows where "ope, you've gotta buy new hardware because we're bankrolled by OEMs"

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    To be fair, the amount of RAM was stagnating for a decade already.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    Pretty sure the entry level machines has 4GB back then

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    They can make more money selling fewer items for higher prices. As long as there are people who can buym the prices will go up. Even the Chinese chip contenders are selling under performing products for the same or higher prices than the established ones.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    That is no longer a laptop

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    Lol Win11 on 8GB. My job got me that at first, i was at 95% usage on idle.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    Good! We do not need most of the volume of code that we ship nowadays anyway. Need to get out of the user’s way so they can do whatever they’re here to do, not give them a Hoover dam of bullshit

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago

    4GB is fine on a proper operating system. I'd still be using my 2011 mba with debian if it wasn't for the fan noise.

    If you genuinely need more, good for you buy something more powerful. Most folks just use web browsers, and if you stay out of the chromium ecosystem those tend to be relatively lightweight in my experience.

    I'm also of the opinion we should abandon the modern web and shift back to gopher but that's just like, my opinion, man

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