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[–] 228 points 4 months ago (17 children)

xAI buried inside SpaceX wasn't enough to make them uncomfortable?

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  • [–] 128 points 4 months ago (14 children)

    It's worse than that... what they IPO with is basically a tiny percentage of SpaceX composed solely of xAI

    The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math, which is why it rarely makes sense

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  • [–] 28 points 4 months ago* (4 children)

    It's not even a surprise, this is from SpaceX s-1 document: only 7% of their estimated valuation is from Space related activities

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Is "Enterprise Applications" like shooting datacenters into space, or copilot business edition?
    I think the "Space-Enabled Solutions" part sounds more like designing satellites than the space-launch business.

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  • [–] -1 points 4 months ago* (2 children)

    They bought Cursor for AI. Earlier this year cursor switched to pay per use model, so now every engineer is spending dozens to hundreds of AI Bucks. I don’t think Cursor is profitable on that yet, but I imagine xAI are looking to scale that model, both to turn Grok into something that earns an income, and to scale up to profit despite cost of datacenters/training.

    I’m skeptical there is really a profitable market, but it might be the most grounded of his predictions. The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale

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  • [–] 7 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale

    could you provide details on that?

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  • [–] 0 points 4 months ago

    You could probably research the company but from my direct experience

    • Cursor is one of the stronger contenders for coding - bringing a variety of models to tools where coders are.
    • Cursor switched to pay per use, significantly increasing costs and didn’t lose customers
    • cursor charged more for higher end models and didn’t lose customers
    • grok is not currently there, or at least not what I can see, so is a huge gap from an xAI perspective
    • it seems good enough business model to business people to be worth a huge purchase

    Once grok is added to Cursor, I will just have it, along with a variety of other models, and can simply choose it based on cost and effectiveness. It may even be chosen for me since I usually leave it in automatic, and my company is a paying customer where each engineer spends a budget

    Also it’s more like a subscription. Software companies love a subscription model with regular income, rather than selling something you pay for once

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  • [–] 30 points 4 months ago (5 children)

    That's what I was referencing, I'm surprised the regulators and the exchange let that happen

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  • [–] 60 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    National Bank employee during OWS protest in 2011.

    You are surprised that the people doing this during Occupy Wall Street are allowing this?

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 19 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    One of several people standing on a balcony overlooking an Occupy Wall Street protest in 2011. This woman specifically was at the time believed to be an employee of National Bank but I don’t know if they were ever identified individually.

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  • [–] 10 points 4 months ago* (2 children)

    The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math

    The US, England, and Japan are all returning to quantitative easing policy. So we've once again got too much money chasing too few investments. What a lot of naive investors see as a market bubble is recognized among the more savvy as a return to our ongoing policy of asset inflation.

    A lot of what SpaceX is selling boils down to an access point to public spending - through sale of military hardware and equipment, network access to Starlink, and R&D funds allocated to the private sector. That's what is really driving investment. It is, in effect, a play on the future of police and military spending.

    Still wildly overvalued imho. But not "blind" speculation.

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  • [–] 14 points 4 months ago

    The corporate governance arrangements (or lack thereof) should be enough to make any investor with two functioning brain cells stay well clear. But the stock market has lost all touch with reality long ago. The crash will be brutal. And small investors will hold the bag, as per standard procedure.

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  • [–] 112 points 4 months ago (21 children)

    The valuation of the stock is based on Musk doing what he's always done, which is making seemingly impossible promises sometime in the future.

    You know what he promised by 2025? A fleet of driverless Tesla taxis. xAI producing the first AGI. A human being on Mars planting a flag.

    You know what the evaluation of SpaceX is based on? The promise of a Mars colony with one million human inhabitants, and space-based data centers. It's going to be decades before it's worth the IPO, if ever.

    In the meantime SpaceX is in debt 20 billion, and is bleeding money. It lost $4.94 billion in 2025.

    So it looks to me like a private equity project. Like Toys 'R Us or Radio Shack or Claire's. Remember those?

    And Nasdaq-100 is fast-tracking SpaceX into its portfolio after 15 days. Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks. So when it does implode, a lot of worker-class folk are going to eat the loss.

    You know who I bet will not be eating the loss? Trillionaire Elon Musk.

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  • [–] 26 points 4 months ago (5 children)

    Jesus Christ thank you for reminding me to confirm I keep his shit as far away from my pension as possible. Thankfully I'm in Canada so I feel there's a hope

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  • [–] 8 points 4 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Disagree with my pension and my RRSP I do have options for how I want to distribute my investments for example focusing on Canada or Europe or BRIC for investments or even dumping your money into a less risky but more stable money market. They're pretty diverse now.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    Other guys comment, and the note about pension funds, is more about how things like the CPP will invest in SpaceX -- as will many ETF/bundled type 'funds' that people use. Things practically outside your control.

    Yes, you and others can invest your personal wealth into whatever you want. But your gov old age stuff will invest into stuff like SpaceX regardless, and be exposed to potential risks should things collapse catastrophically.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    CPP is mandated to make a set return for the Canadian people and it's pretty loose on now they do that. I agree it's concerning them looking at morally questionable companies but money wants to make money and I would argue Canadians care more about having money for their retirement than they do the companies they're investing in.

    Case in point since Trump 45 we should have been collectively divesting in America yes we haven't. American companies even hostile ones still have a huge economic edge. I expect the CPP to be pragmatic and not invest based on their morals all the time. That makes for bad finances. Sucks but sadly this is the world.

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  • [+] 12 points 4 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 11 points 4 months ago

    No, it's totally possible. Not with any technology we've ever built, maybe not with any technology we can build, but physics doesn't preclude it outright.

    Your point still stands though. It's a promise that's impossible to meet within the lifetime of the investors.

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  • [–] 5 points 4 months ago* (2 children)

    It’s possible, but not economical.

    For basically any “space datacenter” scenario, imagine putting that same thing in a vast desert instead. You’ll find it’s easier and an order of magnitude cheaper.

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  • [+] 3 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child)

    800K is 526C! You can't run a datacenter at that.

    80C (still very hot for datacenter hardware coolant) is 350K. And there are other challenges, like effects from being in LEO, or proximity to wherever the solar array is.


    And this is just one of MANY ridiclous engineering challenges. Another great example is that GPUs, memory, and SSDs get random bit flips in orbit, and the issue gets worse with smaller lithography: https://www.itpro.com/server-storage/high-performance-computing-hpc/367323/hpes-supercomputer-helps-iss-astronauts

    There's tons of spam about "solving" this after the Tech Bro boom, but I don't really buy anything I've seen. Nothing but a bunch of lead (or the Earth's atmosphere) is going to stop fat gamma rays or extremely fast nuclei.

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  • [+] 2 points 4 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago*

    To be fair, 100MW is pretty big.

    AI doesn’t actually need that much. I’m pretty sure entire models like GLM 5.2 or Deepseek v4 are trained (and served) on a much, much smaller scale than a 100MW cluster.

    But if that’s the case… why even invest in orbital data centers in the first place?

    Why not desert ones? Why all this cash there instead of actually improving LLM architectures!?

    There are so many nested levels of absurdity here. It’s all just total mania, with zero punishment to those doing the funding because they are too rich to feel any consequences.

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  • [–] 26 points 4 months ago (2 children)
  • [+] -16 points 4 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago (3 children)

    What technology promise did he make that he kept?

    His promise of self-driving cars turned into a huge pile of accidents, especially since he insisted (still insists) that autopilot operate on a single sensor. Waymo uses five.

    It's not like his companies did nothing. Getting his launch vehicles to land safely, vertically, was way cool, but a small step on the way to space colonies or space tourism.

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  • [+] -3 points 4 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago* (1 child)

    Tesla FSD is not safer than real drivers. All robotaxis are level 4 at most, so it's an "apples vs oranges" thing. It's like saying trains are safer than real drivers. By all accounts, the Tesla robotaxis are the worst that exist, and they're barely being used where they've been rolled out.

    I will give credit that Tesla forced other car manufacturers to innovate, but they're outclassed in every way now.

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    [–] 69 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (17 children)

    Initial price was $135. Then it climbed to $210ish. Now $185.

    Pretty regular stuff for a new IPO meme stock. Don't go on the ride if you don't like the speed.

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  • [–] 32 points 4 months ago (15 children)

    There is literally nothing but hope behind the valuation. Same as Tesla. Just dreams and hopes.

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  • [–] 4 points 4 months ago (4 children)

    Both Tesla and SpaceX has produced a lot of stuff, some of it pretty good. But yeah, their stock price are bit out there.

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  • [–] 7 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Stock prices shouldn't be volatile based on tweets lol

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  • [–] 0 points 4 months ago (8 children)

    Hopes and dreams are a good thing, that we should all have. I want to buy the claims Musk is selling: he seems to be the only one actually selling a future and I want hope and dreams for a better tomorrow. And he has delivered, even if not exactly what he said exactly when he said it.

    I understand musk is not an engineer, I understand some of his founder credits might be exaggerated. But his ability to weave an inspired vision, willingness to pay for it, ability to inspire others toward it, does deserve a lot of credit for the growth and success of both Tesla and SpaceX.

    Then his dark side came out into the open … and I still want the vision pushed by Tesla and SpaceX

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    I dont know. To me he is intelligent but he lacks empathy and kindness. He doesn't care about people. He is that typical type of person that can figure shit out but you don't want him running humanity, unless you like dystopia.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago (1 child)

    And yet that was one of the things I used to like - like an engineer he is able to talk in technical details, focus on minutiae, but lacks social skills. Perhaps a nod toward autism. As an engineer, that personality spoke to me.

    It’s only after people started worshipping him that he hallucinated having social skills or really any talent outside speaking of technology. That’s one person who should have stayed in his shell.

    He was always reputed to be hell to work for also, so it’s not like I ever was tempted toward that

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago*

    Yeah I think that intelligence combined with autism means he will always work very hard, because he enjoys it. But he lacks self awareness and he doesn't understand that technology is not what creates a better world. We used to think that before big tech. Now we see how horrible it becomes.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago (4 children)

    I want to buy the claims Musk is selling: he seems to be the only one actually selling a future and I want hope and dreams for a better tomorrow.

    he is selling a future, but not nearly a good one.

    when the musk future comes, don't cry for how the reality ended up, but eat the shit with a smile on your face.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (3 children)

    I will happily live in an era of electric vehicles, cheap and easy access to space and all the modern functionality that brings, affordable satellite connectivity. I will happily live in a world where even the biggest trucks can keep up speed while fully loaded iPhone uphill, without polluting, without noise. I will happily choose a vehicle whose trip planning optimizes route and duration, automatically planning chargers as needed. I will happily live in a world where my vehicle, thermostat and home power storage can participate in a “virtual power plant” with intelligent time shifting

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    I hope you'll also happily live in an era where the powers discriminate against you, and try to eradicate you. the only comforting thought you will have, is there is no going back.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago (1 child)
    1. That’s true of all new vehicles, not specific to EVs
    2. I’m very interested in the Slate truck, which might be the only exception. I don’t want a pickup but I do want the lack of gadgets and surveillance they promise
    3. Or if you want to be argumentative, I claim to be the “in” group, the last to be discriminated against (except I’m from a blue state). Y’all can fight the battles
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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago

    I’m very interested in the Slate truck, which might be the only exception. I don’t want a pickup but I do want the lack of gadgets and surveillance they promise

    that is not the future that musk is selling

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  • [–] 53 points 4 months ago* (13 children)

    World's first ex-trillionaire , yes?

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  • [–] 20 points 4 months ago (11 children)

    Nope. Since everyone bought his shares he got to keep their money

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  • [–] 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (7 children)

    By that logic he's not a trillionaire at all. They only sold 4% of the company for some 68 billion USD. A trillion dollars was never liquidated.

    Edit: 4.3% and 75 billion are the correct numbers.

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  • [–] 18 points 4 months ago* (6 children)

    He gets to borrow against the shares as if he has that trillion in cash.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    What moron bank would lend against no actual collateral.

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  • To add to what the other user said, this is why the rich convert their money into real estate wealth as well. Not only does it hold its value better than cash, it appreciates faster than any savings account ever could, and the wealthy take a loan out on it when they need cash, and then pay that loan off with money from a loan on a different piece of property.

    By repeating this over and over, they go their whole lives without ever having to actually give up any of their assets to pay off any of these loans, and when they die, the debt disappears alongside them.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    That's... not how this works.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago (1 child)

    People give him 170 to 300$ for worthless share. He get to keep this money, now the valuation on the shares he have got up because people hedge fund were fighting for the useless one. Now when the dust settles we will see how Musk will do but in any case he got out with a filthy bunch of money

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  • [–] 52 points 4 months ago (4 children)

    Sure would be nice to have some food, affordable housing, and healthcare…

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  • [–] 21 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Get out of here, fracking lazy SOCIALIST!! 😡

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  • [–] 47 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Down 6%.

    The line wiggled a bit.

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  • [–] 42 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    They diluted the stock 3.4% in less than a week of trading 🤣. Invest with Musk at your own risk.

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  • [–] 7 points 4 months ago

    This is actually Elon Musk's fault (that felt wrong to say), the company should never have been valued so highly anyway that was stupid. As far as I can tell Musk hasn't actually done anything.

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  • [–] 40 points 4 months ago

    That drop is more than it’s worth.

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  • [–] 35 points 4 months ago (5 children)

    I get it. I have a uniquely shaped rock that I found in a ditch. I value that thing at about 530 billion dollars. /s

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  • [–] 9 points 4 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 24 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    Once again, wealth trickles up to the billionaires.

    Capitalism! Gotta love it, or not.

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