Imagine having a streaming service so bad it fails twice

I love that nobody watched anything on Yahoo! Screen except for that one season of Community

Late to streaming? Netflix was the first big time streaming service that I ever heard of. The main reason their streaming service was able to take off like it did is that nobody else of significance thought that streaming was worth pursuing. What other companies were offering streaming services at anything approaching scale before Netflix?

late to streaming, but practically the first subscription based system to watch movies/tv online.

First years of Netflix were the best, the product began degrading quite early on. but that was mostly companies realizing that instead of licensing their content on Netflix, they can make their own platforms.

And that's why they're trying underhanded tactics to inflate earnings and IPO directly into the index funds, so every American's 401K will legally have to rebalance and invest in them. They're racing to fleece retirement funds before the bubble bursts.

Not financial advice, of course :p but people should really consider getting their stuff out and into self-directed funds or whatever it is US people do to not depend on auto-allocated funds.

Of course they don’t, that’s why they’re building bunkers. Thinking it’ll slow us down, as we’ll open their bunkers like cans of tuna. A bunker only works for so long, then the survivors start hunting for them like delicious shipwrecks.

Money printer go brrrrrrr

That's simple, because the people making laws and overseeing the adherence to those laws are great buddies with those same CEOs.

So, corruption.

Though i do agree with you, there is no such thing as too big to fail. Government shouldn't have any handouts to corporations.

That's definitely costing them more than running it on their own hardware, but it doesn't mean AI is costing them more than the AI startups. Anthropic for example is already paying SpaceX 1.25 Billion a month for compute, and has agreed to pay Google 200 billion over the next 5 years for access to Google's compute and TPU chips.

Google's deal with xAI specifically lets them terminate the deal with 90 days notice after the end of the year. Google is also investing heavily in building new data centers with their hardware. I'm assuming this deal means they've eclipsed their current TPU capacity, and are just looking for a short term bandaid until they can catch up with their new constructions.

Anthropic is doing the same too. SpaceX over here providing the shovels and pans for the modern day gold rush, sheesh.

Claude just kills the other models, it's not close. Microsoft could ban claude extension from VSC tonight and ill start using command line Claude tomorrow. There's just no comparison right now. Itd be like Microsoft trying to ban NVidia gpus from Windows, they'll just lose.

The thing is this really depends on the speed of some financial events, not some technical failing.

Notably, if OpenAI has to cancel any of their commitments to buy hardware because they find they have neither the money nor can secure even more debt to cover, that event would potentially cause the bubble to pop, even for hypothetical companies that may have been more responsible and might have a viable business approach. Those commitments are coming up, and a lot of analysis struggles to see how they will fund those commitments.

The thing with this bubble is that the investors don't get the nuance and will flee at signs of trouble in any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or a handful of others, and Altman's leadership has made trouble at OpenAI very likely, but the investors don't believe it and won't believe it's unique to OpenAI, even if it would be.

The bubble will pop, I think a lot of people are just baffled by how big it's getting.

What people? All the credible people I read say that things fall apart Q2/Q3 2027 as debt and profit obligations are due.

The only thing that changed is now there is an energy crisis coming, so it's possible that might force the bubble to pop sooner if all the systemic risk aligns.

Only because the hype has lasted longer than expected. Now that IPOs have been filed, the AI companies (Anthropic, OpenAI) released statements about slowing down to protect us. They're setting the stage for lower growth. But I think you should invest every penny you have into "SpaceXMegaTwitterSuperCarAI".

To break even on operating expenses, not even counting debt payments, depreciated capital value, or future recapitalization costs.

This is why IMO blitz scaling is dumb when your service is a commodity. I'm not any more loyal to Uber than Skip. If more investor money goes into making a cheaper meal or ride on Skip I use that. Consumers are mercenaries about that stuff.

The "blitz" part of blitz scaling assumes your customers can't move.

"I need a triple A cooking game with blackjack and hookers, all written in SQL."

"But that's a database langu-"

"Did I stutter?"

Agreed, but hey no need to pile the the hate on Pascal, modern ones like FPC/Lazarus are pretty cool actually :)

We need this in Esperanto and the lost languages of Lutruwita.

Exactly, these companies will keep leveraging more and more because they know the govt will step in and print whatever number of trillions of dollars needed to fix the accounting. Then they'll tell us "core" inflation is only 2.8%.

An older co-worker seems to ask AI for help during work, we are blue collar. But the Owner of the company does not seem to use it whatsoever.

I ask Claude on occasion, to see if it will say something smart (it was mostly useless as fuck).

Would be nice to see that used hardware for sale rather than it being junked as a writeoff.

I find that hard to believe, I recently had to uninstall co-pilot after it weaseled its way into my search bar. Its not an exageration to say that my PC literally ran cyberpunk 2077 with pathtracting better than it ran the fucking windows search bar with co-pilot.

It is sorta. Training is orders of magnitudes more intensive than inference, but we infer billions of times within a model generation.