CXMT

Gamers Nexus has mentioned them a few times on youtube.

I'm assuming the usa will label them as communist terrorist witches though, and it will not be available in the usa, and possibly also not available in some of their ally of evil nations.

I'm still not quite sure what happened with Deepcool in that respect though, since I bought a Gamerstorm psu a few weeks ago. Gamerstorm is Deepcool, they have mirrored products under both brands.

Even if another manufacturer enters the market, why is everyone so convinced they are just going to spit out cheap RAM? If anyone is going to invest in RAM now, it's going to be solely for the insane profits. Case in point: the RAM you are talking about is already 600€+

only for the Chinese market from what I've read about them. if they manage to scale to the point of exporting then prices will drop with or without the bubble popping. my money is on a pop though.

Heard of them too, iirc the sticks they have now are still 'slow' compared to companies sucking AI penis (8400 nits to 9400 nits[?] whatever that means).

The price is due to AI companies paying for the RAM at high prices. When the demand goes down the price should naturally come down, same thing happened with GPUs with crypto mining.

Don't forget that Chinese companies also started making DDR5 RAM, if they can increase their output and keep up with demand, I believe the price will go down. Maybe in the future Chinese companies will dominate the RAM industry.

Yeah this is like when the cops investigated themselves and find no wrongdoing. Why would anyone listen to the chip mafia when they have only their own interests in mind. They want you to think that there is no point in waiting for prices to drop, when that is obviously what everyone should be doing right now. Basically everyone should boycott the entire semiconductor industry as much as possible.

But this case they’re just not making consumer ram. No glut.

Yea, I wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung and SK Hynix would come to regret their deals with OpenAI once the Chinese have ramped up production and price them out of the market.

This. As with any technology, it will always improve. The American government helped the Chinese by barring the chips from them, meaning they had to program more efficient models.

Yeah, but that news won't make a boardroom happy.

The local models require massive amounts of ram that isn't available for most consumer hardware

I do hope the bubble bursts soon but low ram and local ai aren't compatible

Ay, if you are sure about that, buy calls (or puts, idk) from open AI and 2x your money!

why would it be cheap, if people would buy it at 4x the normal price?

This is my read on it too. I give it a year.

That's a pretty naive assumption to make.

It's just hyper capitalism unfortunately.

Self hosting isnt a threat to them, most folks ain't doing that. And those of us who do already block most of their ways to generate revenue of our usage, so we don't really matter to them.

Self hosting also requires a ton of RAM because each individual user has to load a (usually slightly smaller) model + KV cache, whereas for hosted, they load the huge-ass model once (per cluster) and then store KV caches for a bunch of users, which has better scaling.

The memory companies win whether you self-host or pay a subscription. They might win more if you self-host because look at the cost of self-hosting, it's actually pretty steep if you don't have the hardware already from the before times.

No, it's because they switched their manufacturing to chips used in AI datacenters, which aren't the same as what is in consumer hardware.

The price fixing agreements will happen after the bubble pops, assuming the demand actually drops.

My prediction is that the intent is to kill the consumer hardware market so we have to subscribe to a virtual desktop.

Chinese companies are not investing in very expensive RAM fabrication plants in order to sell it on the cheap...

Might really be the time to revisit smartphone-based server ideas.

Used DDR4 sodimms on eBay. Got 2x8GB for 35 pounds.

You should though.

Not only do they have an interest, they are also in control of that price. And any other supplier is exactly in the same boat. When supply is lower than demand, prices go up, it's economics 101.

On one hand it is an opportunity for CXMT to gain more market share. On the other when demand drops they will be left with excess capacity and that might discourage them from expanding.

There are some games that require a lot of RAM, especially if recording while playing or something.

Hosting an accurate AI locally typically takes 24GB of VRAM. Not having sufficient VRAM makes you reliant on remote models as a paid service. You pay many more times for tokens what you could pay for RAM just once for limitless tokens.

Even if the AI bubble burst today and we canceled all data center plans, it would take a while to pivot production back to something useable for consumers instead of highly specialized servers. Not four years but at least a couple of months.

It alao assumes that each data center will have a hardware refresh every few years to sustain demand.

I can't see demand surviving the necessary pricing to be profitable over time with the inital hardware, much less to pay for the inevitable refresh.

Inflation will take care of that. Memory never really dropped in dollar price.

You don’t think their main source of income was ever consumer-grade memory… do you?

It’s always been servers and business customers.

It's probably a good projection if you assume the AI bubble doesn't collapse. Though that may be a poor assumption.