Company that has a vested interest in keeping prices high says prices will remain high. Yeah, I'm not going to trust that source.
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I bet it's not going to be that indefinite, a year tops before CXMT ramps up RAM production https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-cxmt-makes-breakthrough-advanced-memory-chips-information-reports-2026-08-31/
On one hand it is an opportunity for CXMT to gain more market share. On the other when demand drops they will be left with excess capacity and that might discourage them from expanding.
It's bad, OK, I'm not trying to remove any blame or criticism for the situation.
That being said, what actual normal usage for a normal person (not a National Geographic 8K stereo 360 video editor or a developer compiling Firefox daily) needs a lot, say more than 16GB, of RAM?
Again I'm not trying to find a way to accept a bad situation, only to see which actual usages are in trouble because honestly I don't see any.
There are some games that require a lot of RAM, especially if recording while playing or something.
The fact that you wrote "some" perfectly illustrates my point, it's not normal. It doesn't mean those usages aren't important, just not typical.
It just means I wasn't sure my example (4x games) was completely right
Did a quick search and "Most games required more than 16GB RAM ONLY if the game was played at 4k or 8k resolution. Usually between 16-25GB RAM" https://laptopstudy.com/ram-usage-games/ so I would argue that's not a typical usage.
Hosting an accurate AI locally typically takes 24GB of VRAM. Not having sufficient VRAM makes you reliant on remote models as a paid service. You pay many more times for tokens what you could pay for RAM just once for limitless tokens.
Same, that's not a normal usage. Spending a lot of time on Lemmy/Reddit/HackerNews tech community might lead to believe running a local model is normal but very few people do. When they do it's typically on GPUs or Mac precisely for their unified memory architecture... but it's not a normal setup even for gamers. Also typically it's to tinker locally and learn from than actually productivity. I'm repeating here, I'm not saying it's not an interesting use case for some, just not what most people do.
Isn't there a 4rth RAM producer in China that is starting to make waves?
CXMT
Gamers Nexus has mentioned them a few times on youtube.
I'm assuming the usa will label them as communist terrorist witches though, and it will not be available in the usa, and possibly also not available in some of their ally of evil nations.
I'm still not quite sure what happened with Deepcool in that respect though, since I bought a Gamerstorm psu a few weeks ago. Gamerstorm is Deepcool, they have mirrored products under both brands.
Even if US doesn't open up, many others would so that would reduce the demand and in turn the price for the cartel.
Depends on their output I guess, CXMT might also be selective of who they sell to, at least initially. No idea how many fabs they have, or future plans. We currently have what should be a growing consumer market, with a drastically reduced supply... and apparently no/few actual warranties.
We (the rest of the world) definitely need hardware options outside of the usa.
Even if another manufacturer enters the market, why is everyone so convinced they are just going to spit out cheap RAM? If anyone is going to invest in RAM now, it's going to be solely for the insane profits. Case in point: the RAM you are talking about is already 600€+
Because they are filling market demand. They don't have to produce consumer ram (or even cheap ram), they just have to supply the market demand for any dram chips and prices will fall, providing demand doesn't increase further - which it still may.
Ram is expensive because of low supply and high demand. I've not heard of any cartel agreements, so price is still set by the market itself.
They just have to sell them cheaper to get customers. Then the others will have to drop their prices as well to compete.
only for the Chinese market from what I've read about them. if they manage to scale to the point of exporting then prices will drop with or without the bubble popping. my money is on a pop though.
Heard of them too, iirc the sticks they have now are still 'slow' compared to companies sucking AI penis (8400 nits to 9400 nits[?] whatever that means).
Honest question, why would the prices at this point ever go down again, even if the AI bubble pops?
Those companies are now used to these profits. For them, profits always have to increase year after year. If there's no other choice of vendor (and I know this would open an opportunity for a new vendor to come and be cheaper, but if it were that easy with RAM it would have happened already), why would they even care to reduce it again?
The price is due to AI companies paying for the RAM at high prices. When the demand goes down the price should naturally come down, same thing happened with GPUs with crypto mining.
Don't forget that Chinese companies also started making DDR5 RAM, if they can increase their output and keep up with demand, I believe the price will go down. Maybe in the future Chinese companies will dominate the RAM industry.
SK Hynix, who recently floated on the stock exchange, says thing to prevent line go down.
And now, the weather

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