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Memory Prices Indefinitely High: SK Hynix Says Shortage Continues Through 2030 - PC Perspective (pcper.com)
submitted 2 months ago by to c/technology@beehaw.org
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[–] 15 points 2 months ago* (4 children)

Implicit in this prediction, is the assumption that AI data-center demand will continue that long.

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  • [–] 12 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Even if the AI bubble burst today and we canceled all data center plans, it would take a while to pivot production back to something useable for consumers instead of highly specialized servers. Not four years but at least a couple of months.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    A lot of startups are using at least partially consumer grade hardware, which will likely get offloaded to the used market when the bubble bursts as they try to recoup some of their losses. This will put some pressure on pricing especially for used parts.

    I don't think it'll put pricing back at pre-AI levels immediately, but it will likely cause prices to start to drop pretty soon after the bubble bursts, even before manufacturing is able to change focus.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago

    It alao assumes that each data center will have a hardware refresh every few years to sustain demand.

    I can't see demand surviving the necessary pricing to be profitable over time with the inital hardware, much less to pay for the inevitable refresh.

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