This mess is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

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[–] 112 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The longer this goes on the more it seems like the explicit goal rather than a side effect.

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  • [–] 41 points 8 months ago

    bingo. And any companies that do make it out the other end of this will transition to subscriptions for their stuff. HP is already rolling this out for their laptops. The end goal is to stop people from owning stuff but pay a monthly subscription on it. and if you want to own a device outright, prepare to pay a premium.

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  • [–] 99 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    I love how we have to protect Taiwan against Chinese annexation because the World relies on their chips, but when extremely large corporations basically take away the World's supply of chips it is supposed to be fine.

    At least with the Crypto and now the AI craze we are at least getting used to shortages from the eventual war of the chips

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  • [–] 17 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Coming to a potato farm near you

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  • [–] 16 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    How about instead of building concentration camps, we build chip factories, and employ all the people we're abusing? Then they can spend their earnings, and pay taxes, and stimulate the economy.

    Or we can lock them up, create a chip shortage, destroy otherwise viable companies, and keep our economy limping along, satisfied with the false metric of the Stock Market as a score.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    How about instead of building concentration camps, we build chip factories, and employ all the people we’re abusing? Then they can spend their earnings, and pay taxes, and stimulate the economy.

    Not sure if there are sarcasm tags here, but the capital costs for a leading edge chip factory are unreal. It took a transition from a dictatorship to a democracy, a lot of blurring between capitalism and a planned economy, decades of concentrated investment, and luck for TSMC to get where they are.

    As a national effort in the US, it'd make the Apollo Program seem trivial. It'd be a bit like saying "lets turn all the immigrants into astronauts."

    Not that the immigration situation isn't utterly cruel and ridiculous and that we should be bringing these people in with open arms, but one can't just will chipmaking into existance quickly. It's extremely difficult. It's why the potential collapse of Intel is such a calamity, as it would be almost impossible to rebuild, and why the atrophy of Global Foundries can't be reversed as much as Europe would like to.

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  • [–] 34 points 8 months ago

    Guess who will 'help' these companies in the future. It's a power grab, plain and simple

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  • [–] 32 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Well.. The ram manufacturers will have a great surprise when AI doesn't continue growing exponentially and all their other customers have died.

    But at least we made the line go up this quarter I guess.

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago

    I doubt RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. From the article,

    Pua Khein-Seng is further said to have highlighted that memory manufacturers are now "demanding three years' worth of prepayment (unprecedented in the electronics industry)"

    If they're really being prepaid three years in advance that's a huge cushion. Of course this assumes that it's really money and not just a contract for more money.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    I don't think RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. There might be fewer consumer electronics manufacturers after this, but the same demand for consumer electronics. There will be about the same level of production, but just by fewer manufacturers.

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  • [–] 18 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    I saw a post that they plan on most office jobs will be obsolete in the next 2 years.

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  • [–] 45 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Sorry about the RAM prices but we needed it to make you unemployed, thank you for understanding.

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  • [–] 24 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    If I wrote a fictional story about a critical component of modern society being manufactured on a single island, and then had that island invaded by the neighboring nation causing the rest of the world to collapse, I'm pretty sure people would dismiss the story.

    But here we are. Any country not scrambling to build local fabs are in danger.

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    This is arguably about an un(der?)regulated futures market gone wild. If you can buy all the production for the year, before it's even been produced, you're going to create a shortage. One could argue that supply and demand is out of whack and that more fabs = more supply to meet demand, but if Western Digital completely sold out of hard drives when we're only 1/6 of the way through the year then more supply isn't really the way to fix it.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    This is a really interesting point. It seems to suggest that the self-organising property of markets isn't just from supply & demand, but also requires some other conditions (that demand is widely distributed politically? or in space & time?) and that any market with a sufficiently wealthy actor loses its predictive power, because they can destroy those conditions whenever it benefits them.

    Doesn't even seem to be related to the fact that they had exclusive purchase rights. Lacking that, you could buy far in the future after everyone else has put in their orders.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Supply and demand hold where there is competition within and across all the market layers. This has rarely held in IT and the hardware market has always had these problems at smaller scales where the capacity of suppliers or demand is so skewed that certain actors on the market have to be appeased at the cost of long term health of the industry.

    That is to say we had ample warning that was ignored.

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    What the fuck is happening to journalism? What is "reportedly says" supposed to mean? Did he say that and you are reporting on it, or did it come to you in a dream?

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago*

    It's because they machine translated the direct quote. It means "here's the direct quote in English, but we cannot absolutely guarantee that it is a flawless translation."

    They're clear about that in the article.

    And that's reasonable for these internet tech outlets, which don't have much budget for (say) human translators for every little blurb these days. TBH it's a miracle PCG is still operating at all.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    This won't happen because they need consumer electronics to enslave the population.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    I'm honestly worried that's the goal.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (8 children)

    i really hope its over soon.

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    Hahahahahaha....

    Oh wait, you're serious? Same, but it won't be over soon.

    The whole market will crash when AI takes a dive. I'm hoping for that to happen soon but given how much money the companies involved have and can get.... Probably not anytime soon.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    Yeah i was serious.
    But i said soon cause OpenAI And many AI companies are burning through alot of money.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    Yeah, but they have backing from companies with deep pockets. Apple and Microsoft are leveraging chatGPT on their back end, so they're not going to run out of money until that well dries up.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (3 children)

    I know Apple has been very open with creating their own LLM, and Microsoft isn't exactly hiding the fact that they are too.

    The one that will be hard to squash is Gemini, since it's fairly far along in terms of development and it's also backed by Google. Being backed by Google is either a sign that it won't ever die, or that it will be cut in the next 18 months and end up as another item on killedbygoogle.com

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    But it's not a bubble!

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    So do your best to keep your current equipment in tip top shape, learn how to solder, learn electrical schematics, learn how to replace components on a circuit board and NEVER throw away a broken electronic anymore.

    2026 and on might be a way for repair to come back strong, but at the same time, we can't repair without parts, so it's a double edged sword. SSD's only have a 5-10 year life span, so we are ALL screwed and i'm really hoping my new NVME SSD's last a decade.

    All gaming consoles and PC's are doomed for the next decade, so hopefully everyone has books, retro consoles, and physical media to consume when their gaming equipment dies as it eventually will in that time frame.

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  • 33 comments in c/hardware@programming.dev view that post
    [–] 67 points 8 months ago (16 children)

    None of this makes any sense unless there is some super secret versions of these AI that they're holding back from the public. Nothing about the current models is what they claim it to be. Its a useful tool, sure, but its really only as useful as the skill of the operators, and I don't mean "prompt engineer" or whatever other bullshit you call that. I mean actually developers and engineers who have had the time in the trenches to know what is going to work or not work.

    Use AI to generate a codebase for an app. Get to an MVP. Then, try and make a change. I dare you to. Its a fucking disaster. These models are not up to the task. Its a structural issue. They have no conception of how things fit together. They're constantly just making shit up whole-cloth, and beyond that, they're just gaslighting you to sound smarter than they are.

    They can be used to make demos. They can be used to solve already solved, well trodden problems. But thats really about it. You'll spend 4 hours trying to get it to change one basic component. They're exponentiating the amount of calories burned, but not the amount of work done.

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  • [–] 50 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    It's a grift, nothing more. The execs know this, but they want new yachts.

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  • [–] 19 points 8 months ago

    Thats what I think. If they had the super secret "next best thing", they'd be pumping it for all its worth. The models themselves have felt asymptoted since 4.0. The engineering around those models has improved, but the underlying models haven't.

    There is also a hanging chad around alignment. There was much-ado when I think it was 4.0 or 3.5, around some jailbreaks. Everytime a jailbreak got fixed, the models got worse.

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  • [–] 33 points 8 months ago (10 children)

    What are the chances that this is orchestrated to bring more computing control to the larger companies who can weather the storm? If end users don't have ram or storage that will make it even easier to push them into walled garden cloud platforms.

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Starting to look like that honestly

    Edit: and they probably like the AI is flooding the open source market with shitty code and PR that can make it hard to know which projects/PR actually is actually done through human efforts for the betterment of the society

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    The only hope for consumers is that Chinese manufacturers pick up the slack, but guess which country western governments ABSOLUTELY don't want you buying products from?

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    How much would it matter?
    Even if they are Chinese manufacturers, they would want to go with the high-price buyer, which is larger companies.
    And if they do keep some reserve for people, out of some long-term-thought or maybe just some morals, wouldn't they just prefer selling inside China?

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Chinese manufacturers would fall outside of the "circlejerk" economy between hardware manufacturers and AI companies, and as such I think AI companies would be less willing to buy from Chinese manufacturers, particularly with Trumpian anti-China policies.

    Even if they didn't, Chinese companies still seem to very much be old-school capitalism - they actually still concentrate on making and selling a product instead of just moving capital around with the customer being an obstacle and excuse.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Chinese companies still seem to very much be old-school capitalism - they actually still concentrate on making and selling a product instead of just moving capital around with the customer being an obstacle and excuse.

    This seems very plausible. But I still don't see what is stopping the AI companies to create proxies to buy out as much of the usable product as possible, maybe only leaving DDR3 and older stuff, so while we will still have the chance to buy it, it will still end up being pretty expensive.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Well, the purchases they make now from western companies is an incestuous "you scratch my back I'll scratch yours" on-paper only revenue scam.

    Chinese companies would not play ball with that, because for better or worse, China has a MUCH stronger will to rip a company apart if it's behaving irresponsibly, particularly if that irresponsibility is strengthening US companies' hands. So buying from NVidia means market manipulation and ulterior motives for ledgers and stock prices. Buying from a Chinese company means buying the product at something more like a fair market price rather than sweetheart deals, and then also fighting a US government that is actively fighting Chinese chip production and willing to use tariffs and strongarming to enforce it.

    I'm not saying this is exactly how this will shake out, but I am saying it's the only potential place that computer technology has ANY chance of being made for consumers for the next decade or so, so it's them or nothing.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Again, as per Gamers Nexus the Chinese manufacturers have been mandated to prioritise a majority of their production to Chinese data centers, because the Chinese government has its own AI dreams.

    They are not going to be the salvation of the consumers.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    I don't think that is what they originally intended. As always it is just trillion dollar corporations chasing shortsighted profits, they are incapable of making such long term plans.

    But that is definitely what they are going to pivot towards when the AI bubble bursts. That will keep the data center circle jerk running for a while longer.

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  • [–] 34 points 8 months ago (8 children)

    And the only ones that will actually grow are Chinese companies that dont rely on western owned semiconductor fabs. Kind of odd that none of the "national security" idiots in the US have started ringing the alarms about this yet. At this point China will fully catch up (at least in terms of RAM manufacturing) in just a few years and eat up the entire consumer segment.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinas-cxmt-and-ymtc-to-expand-memory-output

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago

    As per Gamers Nexus the Chinese RAM manufacturers have been mandated by the Chinese government to prioritise the majority of their production to data centers now though. The Chinese government has its own AI dreams.

    So no, they care as little about consumers as the rest of them.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    Kind of odd that none of the “national security” idiots in the US have started ringing the alarms about this yet.

    ... because they are in on it.

    eat up the entire consumer segment

    Won't AI companies just fill enough orders to empty all that extra produce?

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago* (5 children)

    Won’t AI companies just fill enough orders to empty all that extra produce?

    Depends on whether China is interested in helping to build western datacenters. If big Xi says "no selling to US military contractors" (which all big AI companies are) then that is how its gonna be.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    But then they would also have to stop selling to other companies outside, because they could just have pipes to said AI companies.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    If its true that ...

    Many consumer electronics manufacturers 'will go bankrupt' by the end of 2026 thanks to the RAMpocalypse

    ... then im sure that lots of those companies will be more than willing to make restrictive deals with these chinese manufacturers. If they violate the conditions of those deals they can get cut off and be forced to go bankrupt again.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    There are quite a few other things that can happen over here.

    Since terminals are still required even if all work is done in the data centres, those companies can now get deals with other AI companies to normally provide devices to them. Or those companies can just normally buy those things off of the distributors. This can in turn greatly increase commodity laptop/desktop prices for us.

    US can try "helping" Taiwan and threaten Xi with that, to relax their laws for said companies.

    Finally, the governments can start requisitioning computing hardware from us. Honestly, I am just counting my days until this, despite the recent govt. chip making progress.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    There's also Chinese datacenters. China will be wanting to compete without depending on foreign companies. And apparently the Chinese companies have been ordered to prioritize sales to datacenters. Plus Apple is talking to them about a potential deal, so the changes of us peasants getting RAM that way seem slim too.

    The only thing that might help is an AI crash, but that will cause a massive ripple of economic damage so none of us will have any money to buy RAM anyway.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I think it's interesting that no one has mentioned that this much purchasing power concentrated in the oligarchs in the first place is its own problem.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    It is actually the whole problem.

    Oligarchs have too much money in a world that's already edging to end of abundant resources, but they absolutely want to see their wealth keep growing as if it could go on indefinitely. Tüey already squeezed workers and taxes, there is not much more margin there. There is pretty much no business left that can promise past returns, except single shots based on governments corruption.

    Being not half as smart as they think they are, they got conned by AI startup pitches about giganormic growth opportunities, and poured a shit ton of money on them. Now the con-men need to entertain them for as long as they can to suck them as much as they can.

    Everybody else is paying the price.

    Oligarchs are just as dumb as any random person. They shouldn't exist to start with. No one deserve is worth much money and worthy of the power it grants.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    All this, so some guys can dream becoming millionaires by posting AI slop onto social media in the hopes of more ad revenue.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    These short sighted fools are only buying 100% of what computing components being made in the next few years. I've claimed the entire production output of the human race for the next 10,000 years. Get good

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    It's not so much about being short-sighted as being greedy con-artists: the longer they maintain the illusion AI will eventually work and be profitable, the more money in their own pocket.

    They stopped at one year to keep investors on that thin line between a state of too much confidence so they stop investing more and say they poured enough money for AI companies to break even, and the state where they lose hope and cut their losses.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    So the ultra rich can buy it all for cheap.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    but it is worth all "the cat making latte videos" isn't it?

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