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[–] 237 points 1 year ago (43 children)

Huh.

Does anyone else think that ChatGPT is still using the data, they’re just not referencing Reddit directly?

This is how you can tell Reddit’s $200+/share price is insane. Over 10% of its value dropped based on a different unprofitable company’s references to ingested content.

Yikes!!

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  • [–] 51 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Yes, but Oracle's stock skyrocketed based on the unprofitable OpenAI promising to buy >100B worth of AI data center space from Oracle. Nvidia stock also surged on the news, since Oracle builds those data centers with Nvidia chips

    Obviously OpenAI doesn't have the money to pay Oracle themselves, so Nvidia has helpfully given them the money

    So now we have an incredibly large cyclic corporate dependency of money from Nvidia -> OpenAI -> Oracle, then back to Nvidia. Definitely not a financial disaster waiting to happen

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  • [–] 13 points 1 year ago

    They haven't even spent the fucking money yet. It's just announcements of intentions, with a fraction of that $100B in outlays. Nobody seems to want to say who gets to be the one holding the $100B at the end of it, either.

    Presumably they'll all just do a stock swap and tell their vendors "We're good for it, check's in the mail"?

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  • [–] 95 points 1 year ago (36 children)

    Reddit’s value is its ability to use bots to manipulate and distribute information. It’s just like Twitter, meta and all the other social media platforms.

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  • [–] 48 points 1 year ago (15 children)

    No, it's value is that users have up voted and down voted good and bad data. This gives the AI training data that has been crowd sourced by humans. Bots manipulating votes would destroy the value of Reddit.

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  • [–] 58 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Bots have been controlling votes on Reddit for years. It costs about $50 to get to the front page of Reddit.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)

    Which is also generally very detectable (if you actually care) and is generally used to push (monetized) social media and not the answer to "what is the difference between normal and merino wool?" and so forth.

    The vast majority of the "user" interaction and memes is not the product (at play. it IS useful for societal manipulation but there are better platforms for that). It is all those useful questions and answers that people get pissy about folk deleting the answers to.

    Because people, generally, weren't searching for team edward or jacob reddit but instead the fuck is a renesme reddit or LED versus fluourescent bulbs reddit and so forth. And the community labeling of the latter is generally REALLY good.

    Things DO get messy when the question becomes best synthetic boxer briefs reddit but... it is incredibly rare for an astro turfing campaign to be strong enough to get a genuinely bad product "on top". You tend to just get an overly expensive branded white label in the top slot which may actually be identical to the "real" best one anyway. But considering you are relying on human opinion regardless, that isn't far off of what you were gonna get without said astroturfing.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago* (10 children)

    There are absolutely vote manipulation campaigns still happening.

    See this from 12 days ago: https://old.reddit.com/r/privacy/comments/1nldj4m/why_are_we_all_just_accepting_metas_new_spy/?sort=old

    12 days ago almost every top-level comment was below -50 and responses were untouched.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (9 children)

    Of course there are. That doesn't mean the majority of the site is compromised.

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  • [–] 14 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)

    As a user of the website for many years it's entirely obvious that a majority of the website is gamed (besides its niche corners). Reddit's bot prevention mechanisms just fuck VPN users - they are wholly inadequate.

    That thread is evidence of a organized bot campaign that they had 12 days to clean up (and didn't). It's naive to believe that the rest of the website isn't similarly (and less obviously) affected by bots - with vote manipulation still standing.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (7 children)

    Okay, but it is those niche subs that are the most valuable.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

    Are you somebody invested financially in Reddit? Genuine question.

    Those niche subreddits can also have their moments, too. Maybe it's not bots, but there are plenty of shills that have been caught in various niche subreddits I've frequented over the years (thanks to unpaid moderators).

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (5 children)

    No, I'm not. I don't care at all if they're successful or go under.

    Sure, but again it's not likely to be most. You don't seem to realize how hard it is to get data that is already classified. That stuff is gold to people developing AI. Most of the work in data science is cleaning data and getting it into a usable form.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

    It's noise, a very large part of it. Reddit is financially motivated to make the data appear as if it is signal. It isn't - they have taken extremely minimal steps to ensure actual human participation.

    This doesn't matter to AI companies, but it only warps that technology more and more. AI is a sinking ship with current methodologies. Reddit will die when the AI bubble bursts and those involved with Reddit already cashed out enough to be filthy rich.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    At this point we're just speculating. We don't have evidence either way of its mostly good or mostly bad data.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

    If you can land me a gig engaging with back end data from Reddit in a neutral capacity, it'd likely be pretty easy for a layman like me to confirm that it's largely noise. The AI companies buying data are getting scammed and you are free to remain neutral or plainly disagree with my assessment in the absence of concrete data that is publicly obtainable.

    No company is immune to bots and inorganic engagement, least of all Reddit with the strategies employed.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    You keep trying to throw out all the data because some is bad. I don't think these companies would be paying that much for all bad data. You seem to really want to justify some bias you have. It's really weird.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago*

    Reddit is presumably the only party with the ability to determine which data/interaction is truly legitimate or isn't.

    I have a mostly neutral opinion on AI/LLMs, but I have a negative assessment of the companies driving it unsustainably. They are able to pay big money because AI is where money is flowing. When these actors crash the economy with their hubris, please write back to me - maybe I won't seem so weird at that point.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (18 children)

    Ok, so how does a shareholder benefit from that? My company that pays people to stomp on kittens at my kitten stomping factory has value in that in gives people jobs and controls the feral cat population, but it creates no profit for the shareholders.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Reddit shareholders also own a lot of shares in much more lucrative industries.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I didn't ask about their other shares. I asked how Reddit's soft power is able to actually benefit shareholders. I understand how it benefits Spez and those who make the actual decisions at reddit, but if I own 400 shares of Reddit, how do i actually benefit since Reddit will never pay a dividend since it will never actually be profitable

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    The people in power don’t care about people with a few shares. You can sell all your shares right now and nobody would notice.

    Reddit’s power benefits whomever wants to push an agenda and a narrative while minimizing any info that could counter that.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    The ads/manipulation does a thing that helps you attain profit or power. You want to manipulate what people see and pay for... so you pay reddit to allow you to mass deploy bots bypassing moderator levers. They have the community, you have the objective, you pay for the help of doing this and they probably have their own bot farms included.

    They can even internally flag these entries as bots and use their AI partnerships to analyze what works on users and what doesn't to trigger a specific response, and to avoid using techniques that get called out as bots.

    They have their public 'sponsored' content, but I promise for big spenders they have a program that has no sponsorship callout. They probably brand it with nice fancy marketing terminology that makes it sound like you're an angel doing god's work by driving conversions or some stupid shit.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    I understand that Reddit has value to an individual or small board that can control what is posted to reddit. What i am saying is that Reddit's value is entirely in soft power and has no actual path to profitablity. If i am Condé Nast then i can benefit from owning reddit. But Reddit will never pay a dividend, so buying stock in the company is worthless unless you are convinced that some idiot will pay more for it down the road.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    no actual path to profitablity

    You don't think reddit can make money from advertising?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago*

    It hasn't been able to thus far, same as every other "free" social media site other than Facebook. The problem is the sheer scale of the data that these sites have to main makes their overhead costs insane. To make profit from those ad spaces would require those ads to be too expensive to justify to the companies. It would be like trying to operate the New Orleans Superdome purely on ad space. The rate would be way too high to for companies advertising to ever get a return on their investment. Reddit can run ads to subsidize their costs, but it will never be viable as a primary revenue stream for them.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago* (6 children)

    Companies pay for API access so profits go up and stock value go up.

    I assume the reddit stock doesn't pay dividends based on profits. But if you bought for 10 dollars and now it is 500 dollars? You can sell some of that stuck to people hoping it will go up to 1000 dollars for a solid profit. And so forth.

    And if it DOES pay dividends (some kinds of stocks do) then a percentage of those profits are directly sent to the share holders based on how many shares they have.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    I understand how stocks work. Reddit stock is just a legitimizes greater fool scam as no one will ever get a dividend or see any return in their investment short of managing to sell the stock for more than they bought it. Reddit is absolutely worthless in an strictly economic sense. It's value is soley in societial and political ways

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    see any return in their investment short of managing to sell the stock for more than they bought it

    So... it is a stock that doesn't pay dividends? Like... that is what stocks are.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    Which will only actually ever benefit anyone that owns massive amounts of the stock. Reddit has few tangible assets other than their data, which is of questionable value at best. It's basically like owning stock in a piblic library

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Homie? I assume you are just looking to hear "reddit bad" and... it is.

    But if you are actually attempting to discuss things in good faith? You are just describing stocks and you should REALLY educate yourself on the subject if you ever intend to invest beyond retirement and mutual funds... which most people shouldn't in the first place but that is an even bigger tangent.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)

    I am looking at it froma purely financial standpoint. The inky thing Reddit really produces is semi-anonymous data that is tied to an email address. The quality of that data is iffy at best, while they have massive expenses just to keep the site operating. They can charge for their API calls, but they will never be able to use that to generate actual profit since no one will ever pay for it at that price point.

    Something like Reddit or twitter are useful if they are owned by powerful individuals or corporations that wish to influence the public. It is worthless as a strictly financial vehicle because it produces no profit and has assets that are not not equal to the cost of maintain them. You would only buy stock in reddit in the hopes that some billionaire thinks they can do a better job running it than Elon Musk did with twitter. Otherwise reddit stock is just a volatile place to park your cash in the hope that you can sell it for more later.

    Which takes me back to my original comment about the kitten stomping factory. It gives value to a select group of people with a specific aim, but it is worthless as an investment vehicle because it owns little, produces nothing, and has massive liabilities. If you want to exert power and influence, it's useful. If you only care about making money, it's useless. People who buy and sell stock are mostly only interested in making money.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    I am looking at it froma purely financial standpoint.

    Then let's do that.

    Reddit has three official and one implied revenue streams.

    Of the official, we have:

    Ad sales. This is where most "user data" actually comes into play and is the idea of building a profile of each user that can be used to put them into categories for targeted ads. That might be a simple as "likes video games, hates women, curious about learning to pee while sitting down". Or it might be "doesn't realize that guy at the bar took off the condom and is now pregnant". This is demonstrably profitable and doesn't seem to be effected.

    The next is people buying reddit premium because they are idiots.

    The last official oneis the actual topic of this thread. Reddit sells API access to, among others, companies training LLMs. ChatGPT has, allegedly, stopped using them. Thus, one of their major sources of revenue dried up and their stock dropped as a result.

    As for the rest:

    Otherwise reddit stock is just a volatile place to park your cash in the hope that you can sell it for more later.

    Ah, so you DO know what the definition of a stock is. You just refuse to accept it because the word "reddit" is involved.

    The vast majority of stocks are horrible to even consider purchasing as an individual. A general rule of thumb is the only ones you should even consider buying are those with dividends where you just buy a few shares and every couple years check your investment account and transfer the excess to your savings.

    The rest you rely entirely on mutual funds (and similar). Where the idea is that an investment group has a large pool of money and they try to stay ahead of minor fluctuations and often outright bet against themselves. So you might have some funds earmarked at assuming reddit will go up and other funds that take the Oracle announcement as a hint that OpenAI spending on Reddit might decrease and sell the stocks ahead of time to buy shares in coca cola instead or whatever.

    But the thing to understand is that that is happening to basically every single stock. Because the fundamental idea of the stock market is about leaving others holding the bag.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    While I don't agree with the reddit valuation to begin with...

    that is actually how the stock market "should" work? Reddit is a company that, at its core, produces data to sell to other companies. If other companies choose to (say they are not going to) use that data, then the value of reddit drops. That is literally supply and demand.

    If Stanley's Sprockets' sprockets are a vital part of iphones then Stanley's Sprockets is going to be a very valuable company. If Apple changes to the other dude's product, Stanley's Sprockets has now lost a lot of value.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 year ago

    This is how you can tell Reddit’s $200+/share price is insane.

    Well, that and the P/E is 180. Typical target P/E on a stock is 15-20, depending on your anticipation of its growth. But we're expected to believe Reddit's earnings will be 9x their current income in... some nebulous amount of time?

    Like, its silly to get excited about a company this hyperinflated seeing a tiny slide off its new peak. But also, you can't help be bearish on a firm this flimsy.

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  • [–] 199 points 1 year ago

    Couldn't happen to a nicer company

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  • [–] 95 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Fuck Reddit and Fuck Spez.

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  • [+] 165 points 1 year ago (11 children)
  • [–] 28 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    I wish I could say I'm shocked. That site has fallen off so hard it's crazy. The censorship has gone mad. It's the main reason I'm here.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Hopefully the mods on lemmy don't go power hungry

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  • [–] 23 points 1 year ago

    Wouldn't really matter in a federated network like this. Mods banned you from a community? Make a new one. Account banned? Move to another instance.

    There's zero reason to feel attached to online accounts like these, which is the only thing you can lose on Lemmy.

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  • [–] 75 points 1 year ago (9 children)
  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    Keep in mind if the Reddit stock price fell too much some hedge fund vulture would buy up a majority of the stock and then turn it into Nazi town.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Isn't it already basically Nazi town?

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    It is more disaffected people than nazis. At least the places I was at there. The site wide moderation is pretty fucked in favor of powerful interests, including Nazis however. They like to chase off real people that are driving engagement in favor of the legions of influence agents with their bot accounts.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago

    Right, and if the moderation allows Nazi ideology to run rampant, you have a Nazi town. Especially when it's all mostly bots spewing Nazi talking points anyway.

    Refusing to fight hate speech is tantamount to supporting it.

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  • [–] 75 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    I don't care about their stock value but the situation fells so weird. So chatgpt refers to reddit less, and that makes reddit stock value fall. This really shows how much of the share value is pure hype and how much of "the economy" is pure manupulation of numbers instead of actual value.

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  • [–] 27 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    How decoupled stocks are from reality or value. It’s bizarre.

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  • [–] 21 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Tesla is "larger" than all other car companies combined when they're virtually always "delayed" on actually shipping product. We live in bizarro world. Your livelihood is a single cell in a giant spreadsheet full of completely made-up numbers.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Tesla sells itself as a technology innovation company, but it sells hype.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 year ago

    The thing that baffles me on that one is that it doesn’t stand up on its own terms. None of Tesla’s tech in 2025 is ahead of its competitors, and they’ve become so toxic as a brand that most top tier engineers don’t even want to work there.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago

    You just described most tech stocks.

    As Cory Doctrow explains:

    the fundamental duty of every CEO of every high-growth tech company: explaining how his company will continue to grow. These growth stories are key, because growth stocks trade at a huge premium relative to the stocks of "mature" companies.

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  • [–] 71 points 1 year ago (16 children)

    The fact that any AI company thought to train their LLM on the answers of Reddit users speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of their own product (IMO)

    LLMs aren't programmed to give you the correct answer. They're programmed to give you the most pervasive/popular answer on the assumption that most of the time that will also happen to be the right one.

    So when you're getting your knowledge base from random jackasses on Reddit, where a good faith question like "What's the best way to get get gum out of my childs hair" get's two two good faith answers, and then a few dozen smart-ass answers that gets lots of replies and upvotes because they're funny. Guess which one your LLM is going to use.

    People (and apparently even the creators themselves) think that an LLM is actually cognizent enough to be able to weed this out logically. But it can't. It's not an intelligence...it's a knowlege agreggator. And as with any aggregator, the same rule applies

    garbage in, garbage out

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    The main thing that AI has shown, is how much bullshit we subconsciously filter through every day without much effort. (Although clearly some people struggle a lot more with distinguishing between bullshit and fact, considering how much politicized nonsense has taken hold.)

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)

    Exactly that.

    If I were to google how to get gum out of my child's hair and then be directed to that same reddit post. I'd read through it and be pretty sure which were jokes and which were serious; we make such distinctions, as you say, every day without much effort.

    LLMs simply don't have that ability. And the number of average people who just don't get that is mind-boggling to me.

    I also find it weirdly dystopian that, if you sum that up, it kind of makes it sound like in order for an LLM to make the next step towards A.I. It needs a sense of humour. It needs the ability to weed through when the information it's digging from is serious, or just random jack-asses on the internet.

    Which is turning it into a very very Star Trek problem.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    What it needs most of all, is a fairly complete intuitive model of how the world works. LLMs only have book knowledge. They have no body, perception or experience. I think that's incredibly limiting.

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  • [–] 21 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    Thats why I have stopped calling it ai. Its a dumbass buzzword just like cloud, that tech bros like to use but cant explain (or blockchain).

    Its llms, and image generators/OCR (which has been around for decades), Using complex markov chains and a fuck ton of graphics cards. NOT AI. NOT AI.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

    It is AI, along with a bunch of optimization algorithms, statistical decision trees (probably used in adaptive AI in games), etc. AI is a field in computer science that includes a ton of things many wouldn't consider AI.

    Basically, if the solution doesn't come from direct commands but instead comes from some form of learning process, it's probably AI.

    It's not "general AI", but it is in the field of AI.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I would argue we need to go back to Machine Learning.

    The field is machine learning, generative machine learning etc.

    This rebrand to AI is doing nothing but confusing people and building investor hype

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Back? Machine Learning has always been a subfield of artificial intelligence since it all started in the 1950s or so. The end goal is to create general AI, and each field in AI is considered a piece of that puzzle, including LLMs.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Also fair.

    I find the term machine learning more honest than artificial intelligence

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  • It's more specific, sure, but there's nothing dishonest about using the same terminology that has been used for almost 100 years.

    The disconnect is that average people have a different understanding of the term than is used in computer science, probably because of sci-fi films and whatnot. When I hear "AI," I think of the CS term, because that's my background, but when my family hears "AI," they think of androids and whatnot like in Bicentennial Man.

    I don't know how to square that circle. Neither group here is wrong, but classifying something like ChatGPT as "AI," while correct, is misinterpreted by the public, who assume it's doing more than it is.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago* (2 children)

    I've had to start calling it AI because most people don't know what LLMs are, and noone cares to go through the explanation, including myself.
    I'm afraid that, as these things go, AI has gained a new meaning by popular use, rather than the original meaning of the acronym.
    No point fighting it anymore.

    Maybe we just need to adjust and start saying GAI (generative ai). It has a nice ring to it too.

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  • [–] 48 points 1 year ago*

    Oh my god I somehow forgot that Reddit IPO8ng means I get to read stories like this.

    Oh no, the world's most poorly managed and funded corporate social media website's with a publically traded stock is tanking, oh nooooo!

    Ahahahah!

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