The majority of the sweeping tariffs Donald Trump imposed during his second term face one final litmus test that will determine whether he can continue to levy them – and also whether businesses are eligible for massive refunds.

That potentially dramatic turn in the tariff saga comes after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that Trump unlawfully leaned on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose across-the-board duties on countries.

Trump had used those powers to push import tax rates as high as 50% on India and Brazil – and as high as 145% on China earlier this year.

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[+] 339 points 1 year ago (34 children)
  • [–] 143 points 1 year ago (20 children)

    Right. Everything today is about softening you up. They say, we will kill you—and you panic—then they roll it back to just losing an arm, and you’re happy about it.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago

    This is called "price anchoring" when used in business. They throw out an outrageously high number to start and then follow it up with something less to make it seem like a good deal when that was really the price they wanted all along.

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  • [–] 38 points 1 year ago (16 children)
  • [–] 50 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    No, that's the ratchet effect.

    A frog boil is when you slowly raise the temperature so the frogs don't even realize they're being boiled.

    An example of frog boiling is having national guard just roam around not doing anything. People are pissed out of principle, but they're not really doing anything for people to riot over. By the time they are, some people will be used to it already and not as pissed as if it was all at once.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (11 children)

    Is that how frogs are cooked? Like a lobsters?

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  • [–] 33 points 1 year ago (10 children)

    It’s a common myth that frogs will stay in boiling water if the water is heated slowly enough. They can sense heat and will most definitely attempt to escape.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    The original test had frogs brains removed. A brainless frog will not jump out of water when the temperature is slowly increased. If you increase the temperature quickly though, even a brainless frog will react to temperature change out of raw reflex.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    I haven’t even heard that as a common myth. Lobsters, yes. We are lobsters. Frogs? Perhaps very obese frogs

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  • [–] 17 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    It's a misunderstanding of an old experiment where frogs were lobotomized before being exposed to the slowly rising temperature of the water.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Fascinating. People are sick though.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Ianal, I really hope there is some sort of class action that can be done to force companies to pass that back to consumers.

    It should be easy enough to pass through to all the electronic pay methods.

    Or force markup items to all be put on massive sale until an equal amount has been sold to make up the sales at markup.

    There are no perfect solutions, some people will still make out like bandits.

    But jfc, just releasing billions to these companies will only benefit the C-Level and maybe some shareholders, the people already benefiting, not the ones feeling the pain.

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  • [–] 24 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    A class action just passes the money from one elite class (corporations) to another (class action lawyers). Consumers will get a virtual prepaid debit card for $1.97 in 5 years that can’t be spent anywhere because it can’t be used online and it costs $5 to have them mail you a physical card

    Should get out guillotines

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  • [–] 14 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    Yeah I feel like this was already expected or part of some master plan. The companies didn’t lose because they passed it on to the consumer and then they’re gonna get money on top of it.

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  • [–] -2 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    I feel like this was already expected or part of some master plan

    OMG stop. We've elected conspiracy theorists already and things are going to shit. We need to stop conspiratorial thinking.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Is it really conspiratorial when the Commerce Secretary's kids are literally selling financial products that pretty much assume the tariffs will be tossed in court? Sure as fuck seems to me like they planned this based on their already existing actions.

    https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-refunds/

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  • [–] -2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Yes, yes it is. Accusations raised about grand conspiracy between companies and government with zero evidence provided other than "I feel like" is a conspiracy theory.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    So - relevant evidence not just any evidence of anything. Jesus Christ. Evidence of "Crime A" can't be used to support "Crime B".

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    I feel like this was already expected or part of some master plan

    OMG stop. We've elected conspiracy theorists already and things are going to shit. We need to stop conspiratorial thinking.

    This is what you said. I provided a well sourced article that literally confirms this was expected/planned and you're claiming that's not relevant? Yeah, I'm good with not talking to you anymore.

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  • [–] 11 points 1 year ago

    It also gives trump an out from "tarrif checks" he was talking about.

    Likely the reason they started talking about those, is anticipation that they may be overturned. Now his supporters will be mad the "deep state" took "their checks" that they were never gonna get.

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  • [+] 112 points 1 year ago (6 children)
  • [–] 42 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    The businesses will raise a lawsuit that the money is theirs and you will lose again.

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  • [+] 82 points 1 year ago (1 child)
  • [–] 64 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    All that money will go to the businesses, you’ll get a coupon for $1 off and a free credit check.

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  • [–] 37 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Wouldn't surprise if this is part of the scam. Put on tarrifs, hike prices. Let the customer pay and then give companies a rebate with tax money. So the average citizen is charged twice. And of course those price hikes will only go partially down. So the consumer keeps getting screwed.

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  • [–] 14 points 1 year ago

    Soon "See, this is yet another example of why we can't trust the government to do anything right and why we should defund and shutter all of our public institutions." - moderate pundit on well respected mainstream news channel

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  • [–] 58 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Was it not the end consumer who paid those tariffs?? Frankly, I'd rather it be given back to the business at least, but let's not pretend that they didn't extract it from their customers. End it so that other companies can't as easily gouge based on the idea of tariffs.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Yes, the business just collected it. However, it would also depend on whether they upped their prices to do so.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago (1 child)
  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago

    Many (most?) did but not always like for like. This will have the double effect of making American manufacturing less attractive as your competitive edge due to tariffs could evaporate. It also means importers will pass it on straight away as it's clear to consumers that it's a government tax. Moreso as we go on. Previously, the uninformed thought the tariffs were not paid by consumers.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago*

    Was it not the end consumer who paid those tariffs?

    It is whomever imported the item that pays. If you order directly from a tariffed country you pay. If American_Business_01 imports stuff they pay, they then either eat the tariff, raise their price to retailers and distribution (this is what is happening in the non-video game industry). Some businesses are raising MSRP and spreading the tariff between themselves, distribution, retailers, and consumers. Some companies are trying to dump it all on retailers by not raising msrp.

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  • [–] 54 points 1 year ago (14 children)

    How far does this refund go? My distributor paid the tarrifs and then passed that cost onto me, which I passed onto my customers.

    Will my customers, distributors, or myself be refunded? I assume just my distributor since they directly paid the tarrif. And I doubt prices will come down when tarrifs end, so everything is permanently more expensive for no fucking reason, and the top middle man just boosted his profit margin through the roof.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    So that would mean that the Trump tariffs were sending American money overseas for no reason. I doubt it'll actually happen, but holy shit is Trump an incompetent idiot.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    No, the US company recieving the import pays the tarrif to the US government.

    But yes, Trump is an idiot.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Oh, duh. I'm embarrassed I got it confused. I was thinking that the cost is passed on to the importer, but it's actually paid by the importer.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago* (4 children)

    Yeah they aren't telling companies you have to pay to send your product here, because there would be no way to collect that, as they aren't governed by us. (Trolls standing on a bridge comes to mind). Instead every item imported into the country is bought by someone, that someone has to have an itemized list of what they purchased to go through customs and what not to make sure they aren't crates full of dynamite, or plant seeds that are unauthorized. That inventory and costs are then taxed by the government or held by customs I believe.

    e.g. If Paul sets a tariff on Amazon orders at his house, his wife orders a package off Amazon. USPS or whomever delivers the package, Paul's security guard, likely Paul himself gets the inventory of the packages that arrive, see it is from Amazon and charges his wife 50% of that cost to take it into the house. Amazon has no part in that process. Buttt what it may do is make Puals wife less likely to order from Amazon, IF it is cheaper to get the product from someone else then. If the product was $50 on Amazon, and $100 at the store, she would still buy it off Amazon as she would still only pay $75 after the tax, instead of $100.

    Paul just made $25 in taxes that he can invest into the house. His wife spent $25 more. Amazon made the same, but may lose future business.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    Right. I was thinking of the suspension of the de minimis exemption. Because that's an $80 fee that the exporter does have to pay, if I understand it correctly.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (2 children)

    Those are paid by the importer as far as I understand. The di minimus exemption that was passed was essentially supposed to make it so low cost items bought from other countries were exempt from tariffs/taxes. This meant that if you ordered something from Brazil, China, wherever and it was under a certain amount (think it was $800) it would just go through without being hit by the tax. Thus making it cheaper for the end buyer. Trump made an executive order to stop that because that would exempt a lot of people from getting hit by the taxes. Which was put in place with both parties supporting it... So it's solely a new maga tariff thing in my opinion. Buy a $3 million server rack from elsewhere, pay a fee, buy a new shirt, would be exempt. But Trump didn't want that, so he claimed it would reduce security and allow drugs into the country or some shit.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Right. There was an Australian redditor who made his living selling handmade wallets, but he had to shut it down because the price just went up $80 per wallet. Fucking idiotic.

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  • It also hits things like vapes. Consequently making it so their price goes up and cigarettes stay the same, as most small electronics like that aren't usually made here. Vaping isn't good, but it should help make sure more people stay smoking cigarettes.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (4 children)
  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I'm a locksmith, I mostly program car keys for customers. Basically every car key is produced overseas.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    Is the Syracuse factory not producing anymore?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    I'm not sure what you're talking about. But Honda, Toyota, Mazda, Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagon, and Mercedes keys are definitely made overseas.

    And considering the price increases I'm seeing on Fiat (Jeep, Dodge,, Chrystler) and Ford keys, I assume they are too. GM prices have risen the least, but they too are more expensive, probably because raw materials are being tarrifed.

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  • [–] 53 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    So the idiot who managed to ruin every business he ever owned created an absolute clusterfuck running the US, who could've known?

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  • [–] 46 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Eehhh, consumers paid this, not the businesses. This way businesses would essentially get a bonus

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    Well, consumers paid first and foremost, but businesses lost revenue because consumers kinda stop buying shit when it doubles in price - other than essentials, of course. It's also easier to pay a bunch of businesses than to pay 300 million Americans. Oh wait, they've already done the latter, so how about do that again and people can spend the money to buy more shit from said businesses and everyone wins?

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  • [–] 46 points 1 year ago (10 children)

    Am I getting a refund on the higher prices I'm paying because of tariffs?

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  • [–] 48 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    The tariffs will go away, but the companies have realised that you're okay with paying $10 for something that used to cost $8 anyway so you'll be paying $10 from now on

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    The only solution is to confiscate all wealth over $100 million, and use it to establish Health Care 4 All, free college/trade, UBI, minimum living wage, public services, etc.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    I'll just remind everyone that the people making those ghoulish decisions have home addresses. Just normal homes in normal neighborhoods, most often without any extra security.

    Be a shame if they suddenly realized there were consequences for social murder.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    They've been shrinkflating the shit out of everything so much.

    I've recently noticed a stick of deodorant from Costco seems to be the same (already shrunken over the years) plastic shell with less actual deodorant in it.

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  • [–] 39 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    People haven't caught on to the grift yet. One of the people in the committee who runs the tariff decisions literally runs a financial/law institution that since the tariffs started, has been contracting with companies to pay a portions (10, 20, 40%) of the tariffs to "ease the load on the companies" but they retain the rights, in the case of what is going on i.e. tariffs being recalled and paid back, to take 100% of the tariff payback.

    So a government official is steering the tariff policy to essentially steal money from companies with some alight risk of the tariffs not getting overturned. Crazy grift.

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  • [–] 37 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Spoiler alert: even if Donny loses this battle he won’t pay anyone anything he never has and never will admit to losing or owning anything to anyone.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    It's not Donny's money. What will happen is that importers will pass the tariffs onto consumers, as they pretty much have to, then the tariffs will be overturned and the money given back to importers, thus robbing regular people once again and transferring wealth to the capitalists.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I doubt the importers will be refunded. Obviously if they were, 90%+ will not refund their customers because why would they? I can imagine class action lawsuits down the road, but honestly I predict the supreme court will overturn any lower court rulings and let him tariff away, saying it's the congress's job to reign him in since "it's their prerogative" or some such, in a 6-3 ruling. If they wanted to stop the tariffs, the majority will argue, they could simply cancel them.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    I obviously grasp the injustice, but I can't imagine what the basis of a class action would be. If you agree to buy a product for $5 and they supply said product, the courts aren't going to care if their cost for it was $4 or $2. There is no constitutional right to suppliers with low profit margins.

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  • [–] 37 points 1 year ago

    Oh so we get to pay twice then. Great.

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