In my last post about frame deliveries we could still see a glacial pace of about 150 units per day at https://steamframeout.com/

It wasn't much, but at least it was consistent.

Only days later that rate dropped off sharply to this:

It's not worth doing any more calculations at this rate.

Obviously this is self reported data and thus not entirely reliable, but I think it paints a good enough picture to infer the situation: There is no significant stock left and combined with the reservation queue extending into an unspecified date in 2027 there is no expectation of new Frames this year.

The devices are sold out and nobody knows when new supply will arrive. I guess we're done with this for the foreseeable future. Congratulations to everyone who got one.

Just to make this clear up front: I was always very skeptical of LLMs (I'll never call them AI) and still see them as fundamentally limited and unreliable. See my post history if you don't believe me.

Having said that: I work in business software and the models have progressed to the point where typing code and writing classes and functions by hand has become uneconomical. We review the output closely to avoid the idiocy of "vibe-coding", but the quality has improved to the point where we rarely have to outright reject solutions. The discussions have moved to high-level architectural points, where we just request better implementations than the first-shot. We get them, review again and move on. Maybe there are deeper, latent problems beeing embedded in the code-base through this process, but we can't spot any although we are looking intently.

And just like that, my profession has died. Nobody in my team writes code anymore. Things that would have taken days are now done in minutes. We are all just considering design and architecture. We are changing our processes since they are not fit for the new way of doing things. Scrum? What's even the point anymore? We can work through a sprint-backlog that would've taken two weeks in two days now. We do reviews 90% of the time. When we request changes they come back in minutes.

I have a feeling like the ground has been taken from below me. My son wanted to become a developer, that isn't a real job anymore. Everyone around me feels the same way, including our management. We are a small team and a small company, everyone is effective and our jobs are not in danger as long as our product is succesful. But my profession is essentially dead. It's a craft I honed for many, many years and the craft itself is now automated. I wanted to improve my typing skills to code faster, this is now a ridiculous endeavour. We don't know what comes next, but I now only have my analytical skills and knowledge of good architecture to fall back on.

And it all changed so fast. I don't think this will transfer to other professions so easily, but for programming LLMs ended it all in the span of the last four months. I thought I knew what my future holds as a senior dev, now I can barely see past christmas.This is a nightmare.

Based on the numbers at https://steamframeout.com/ you can do some very rough back of the envolope calculations and it's not looking great.

In recent days, purchases and deliveries seem to move to a pretty consistent 150/day pace. At this rate, moving through the queue of roughly 37.000 reservations will take around 240 days.

Being more generous you could substract the already shipped Frames and assume a more optimistic 160 deliveries per day. This shortens the timespan to just 200 days for the outstanding backlog.

So yeah, the last reservations would be delivered around April 2027.

I am fully aware of all the caveats of the numbers used, this is just a fun little exercise based on available data.

Just had this insane youtube pull, it seems to be totally obscure but looks incredible. Am I the only one who didn't know about this?

Just to make it clear: I do not believe this and I am convinced good old human greed is what's really driving the ai and data-center insanity. Also, LLMs are not and will never become AGI.

Having said that: if an artificial super-intelligence were to emerge, building more data-centers could well be one of it's primary goals. Since it wouln't be concerned with consequences for the environment or humanity, it could pursue this at any cost, with only speed and scale in mind. Convincing financial markets and business elites of the necessity of such a buildout would be the ideal way of achieving results. In this scenario, fighting this buildout by any means would be the only sensible response and of utmost importance.

It's a somewhat funny, somewhat depressing thought for me and I literally had it in the shower. Surely I can't be the first to come up with this, but I also can't remember having read it before.

I was looking around for parts when I stumbled upon the HP Omen 16L. With an RX 9060 XT, an AMD Ryzen 5, 1TB SSD and 16 Gigs of RAM it looks quite capable and it costs just 999,- EUR.

Am I missing something or is this actually a good deal? Building a rig just from comparable components didn't come cheaper.

The product: https://www.galaxus.de/en/s1/product/hp-omen-16l-gaming-desktop-pc-tg03-0154ng-pc-1000-gb-16-gb-radeon-rx-9060-xt-pc-66284936

I'm so tired of GTA.

I finished Vice City and it was great.

GTA IV didn't click with me at all, I hated the characters and the endless busywork.

GTA V was considerably better, but I never got around to finish it, I just moved on to other things.

And now the ridiculous hype for GTA VI.

I mean I get it, it's a very polished product, maybe the most polished game ever. But I'm just so tired of it. I like driving, I like shooting, I like adult themes and humor, but it's the same every damn time. And it seems to get more contemporary with each iteration. I'm not from the US and I'm not that invested in whatever is happening there. GTA looks to be 110% focused on increasingly specific North American societal issues, judging from the trailer. I'm not into it, which isn't a problem in itself, but the endless bombardment with the hype on every conceivable channel is grinding my nerves.

I know I can't change it, just needed to vent for a minute.

Enjoy GTA VI, I'm sure it will look amazing and set standards for quality and polish. I'll enjoy a gameplay trailer and hopefully some silence once the initial rush is over.

From his latest article:

One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble. The reason they brought this to me is that I’ve shown — and will continue to show — that I actually give a shit about this industry and the people in it. If you’re wondering what the story is, know that it’s the information I’ve wanted for years, delivered as I have always wanted it, and I will treat it with the reverence it deserves. Imagine what the worst possible thing for me to get would be and you’re probably close.

Link: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/

I must say I'm pretty excited.

I finally installed my two panels, plugged them in and they started producing right away.

250,- EUR for the whole 500W setup, no battery.

It's really more of a hobby project but it feels great. I opted for the modern thin flexible panels and they are super easy to install.