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[–] 27 points 1 week ago

I know the famous phrase “The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”, but surely the AI bubble can’t last three more years.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 week ago

    Would be real good if the big old bubble could burst soon like it has in China. Cost of living is fucked either way, so might as well take Sam Altman and Co. along for the ride

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  • [–] 19 points 1 week ago

    The people that colluded and created a cartel to fix prices say that prices will keep increasing.

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  • [–] 26 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Say it with me:

    FUCK YOU SAM ALTMAN!!

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  • [–] 11 points 1 week ago

    I mean, ofc they are gonna say whatever gets them investment money. Might as well say it will last for the rest of humanity's existence. They just keep moving the date over and over and over and over again.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 week ago (1 child)
  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago

    Of course they would expect that. That's how their line goes up!

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    ...cause they're the ones manufacturing it.

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  • [+] -8 points 1 week ago* (5 children)

    Unless you are making big money, you probably already own the most powerful open gaming machine you will ever own for the rest of your life. Which is auspicious timing - the entire PC gaming DEVELOPMENT industry will implode when it becomes clear nobody can afford machines to build new games on, or to play them on, so you won't have new games on PC to BUY. If you must have modern games, you're gonna have to enter one of the approved walled gardens.

    The good times are over, people. The era is coming to an end.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    Not even remotely true if you're at all familiar with several massive hardware developments in the pipeline. People have been saying it's the end of significant progress since 2010 and yet I'm playing what used to be 300w+ console games on a 2.5w A20 SoC. Ram will even come back down in 2-5 years. This is literally a company selling it. Ofc they're going to embellish the demand and stretch their excessive revenue goals far into the future, they're pumping stock.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    As soon as someone captures the gaming market with a gpu arch that lacks tensor cores all scalpers will realize they bought hybrid cards but should have bought tensor boards and a scalp run will just destroy the entire market. Ram will stay up through this probably but you don't need too much ram to game if devs just seg properly

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  • [–] 0 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    I don't think we ever had a handful of billionaires buying up every single component they can get their hands on before, though. And even if their companies technically "run out of money", the government will just bail them out because they are "critical to the defense industry".

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  • [–] 0 points 1 week ago

    Extreme surges in demand have happened before, and if you weren't familiar the memory production market has actually always struggled with consistent long term demand, having several periods where they'd heavily cut production and investment. Which actually it's worth saying there's not much inherently special about Samsung/Sk/Micron beyond they had happened to have invested in the required R/D & Infrastructure to manufacture HBM at a time when it appeared to be far less lucrative. Memory was actually in such a surplus for the short time around covid prior to ai that they had implemented reduced production capacity. Now with the demand soaring in long term projections and a shortage in supply more will find it financially viable to accept the costs to enter the market, and the current 3 will ramp longterm supply even bringing full new fabs online. There's scenarios where this isn't the case, ofc, but it's a general trend that has proven fairly reliable in modern industry and in specific the memory industry.

    https://www.uncoveralpha.com/p/every-memory-cycle-ends-the-same

    https://www.eetimes.com/dram-capex-to-plunge-28-in-2019/

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  • [–] 0 points 1 week ago

    Idk, i feel like the AAA gaming industry put themselves already in a pretty unsustainable path for the last decade. With or without the several consumer hardware crisis we had a long the way. That constant push for even more graphical fidelity doesnt provide better experiences anymore but drives the costs up to stupid levels(hundreds of millions). I'm an enthusiast and i can spot the differences and advancements we made even in the last 5 years. But i dont think the results as impressive as they can be are really worth it. We're at a place where we can boot up games with particularly well crafted artstyles which are 10 years old which look better than currently released AAA titles with lesser visions. But i can also boot up 10 year old games with for their time average looking graphics and forget about the slighly less shiny lighting in 5 minutes when the gameplay doesnt suck.

    But even if we entertain the idea that consumer hardware pogress stalls and we only buy replacements parts with equal performance we would still have an industry which pushes the software side forward. Consoles are the best examples where we see considerably better utilization of the hardware over the years by game devs.

    With all that said: Fuck the AAA industry. They can implode for all that matters to me. In this regard i consider the "good" times over since roughly 2013 with the hyper monetization, dlcs, mtx, gambling, live services, kernel level anti-cheat, kernel level drm, revokable licences, fomo mechanics, etc. But there will always be small studios and indie devs which will release new and fresh games which run on potato.

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  • [–] -5 points 1 week ago

    duh. gamers are the least politically active parasites of society. ofc they let nazis continue monopolicing markets instead of liberating themselves.

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  • 22 comments in c/pcgaming@lemmy.ca view that post
    [–] 52 points 1 week ago

    Our hardware crisis is their record profits, so of course they’d say that

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  • [–] 30 points 1 week ago (11 children)

    If Anthropic doesn't do well with their IPO, it'll all come crashing down temporarily in Q2 2027 as they run out of funds. Maybe Q3.

    OpenAI is in a similar position: If they don't have an IPO by Q2 2027, they'll run out of money too.

    I suspect that if Anthropic's IPO doesn't do well, the whole market around AI will have a series of weekly "corrections", losing much of their value as China laughs all the way to the bank.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    Anthropic will likely do the same trick Musk did to shift his debt onto the public- They'll get instant inclusion into the S&P500 which requires pension funds and index funds held by everyone with a 401K to buy their stock.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 week ago (1 child)
  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

    Yeah, the trick was only with the NASDAQ 100 as the SP500 ended up saying no to changing their index rules to allow inclusion of SpaceX stock so shortly after IPO.

    The point however does stand for people whose pension and index funds are invested in or follow the NASDAQ 100 index as what was predict would happen to the value of those shares after IPO (and the reason why the indice before did not include stock so shortly after IPO) happened: the price spiked immediatelly after IPO just as the funds tracking the indice were forced to buy that stock, quickly collapsed afterwards and is still now below even IPO price (and well below the post IPO price spike).

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  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    It's an interesting conundrum...there will still be demand for compute, so the open question is: who's buying up the datacenters and racks when the bubble bursts?

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Except all the preorder they've been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can't use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.

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  • it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.

    But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money. Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a "flood" or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    It won't be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I'm sure they'd much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it's worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.

    It'll change nothing for about six months, then we'd see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Just looked up the prices of the ddr4 ram kit i considered to buy 1,5 years ago. Its now >500% more expensive. Even compared to last month the prices increased by >30%.

    If my ram dies i'm just going to emulate PS1 games on my phone or touch some grass.

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  • [–] [S] 5 points 1 week ago

    Yeah, I had 64 GB kit die on me this year and had to find my receipt from 2.5 years ago for a RMA, which btw if it does die, check to see what the warranty is, most have a limited lifetime warranty.

    64 GB back then was 114 USD and for panic and giggles I looked at PC Part Picker, 599+ USD at the time. Absolutely crazy and stupid.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 week ago

    Or do they mean their going to choke supply until then...

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  • What’s even the point of antitrust laws if they’re not going to be enforced…

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    At this point, they can say that the crisis will continue indefinitely as they keep to pushing the date.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago*

    Plus the reality is most of the data centers they are planning to build aren't even ever going to break ground, let alone have hardware in them. Meaning all that hardware stock they have pre-contracted is moot. Plus plus the fact that they're pre-selling hardware that they haven't even procured raw materials for to manufacture, I can't see even half of these "sales" to become cold hard cash in their bank accounts.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago

    "Current money maker expects to make more money"

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago

    They have the industry by the balls and know it. Even though there is competing tech, it won't be to market for years. Honestly I expect the bubble to pop first, destroy capex, and lead to up coming tech getting shelved. Because why invest in a new path when the old one will be dirt cheap again?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    "Buy now, prices will only get higher" says seller.

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