top 100 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] 88 points 1 month ago (22 children)

Your local grocery store is more profitable than OpenAI. In fact you are more profitable than OpenAI.

OpenAI owes hundreds of billions of dollars, with a revenue a fraction of that. They will never become profitable.

  • source
  • hideshow 22 child comments
  • [–] 27 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

    They will never become profitable.

    If you look at OpenAI as a single, independent, private company then they appear unprofitable. But when you look at them as a means of laundering Pentagon money and other federal contracts into straw purchases for NVIDIA and Oracle, they are immensely profitable.

    AI is a Loss Leader. It props up the production and sale of hardware, which has been fruitful for its partners, its investors, and the economy as a whole. It is a digital form of induced demand in so far as new construction creates a "virtuous" cycle of increasing consumption, as more and more of the business and public sector is dragged into its orbit.

    The end-game for OpenAI is to have a captured market of businesses and government institutions. Whole sectors of the economy devoid of human knowledge workers who are hopelessly addicted to AI Agent processes, because nobody managing the companies actually know what these agents are doing anymore. At this point, Altman and Amodei can charge whatever they damned well please for token traffic, because there's no bureaucracy capable of competing with them.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 14 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Most of the money getting funneled to Nvidia came from them in the first place. That's why they're one of the chatbot's biggest cheerleaders.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    Most of the money getting funneled to Nvidia came from them in the first place.

    NVIDIA's not getting most of its money from OpenAI. OpenAI doesn't really buy anything from NVIDIA. They buy rack space from Oracle, which then builds out new datacenters with NVIDIA chipsets. And Oracle's primary revenue stream is from its business Cloud Services, of which OpenAI is a small fraction.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    This would make sense if they were the only game in town , but they very much…aren’t.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] [S] 11 points 1 month ago (8 children)

    The Weimar Republic was more profitable... well no, maybe not. But you get the sentiment.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 8 child comments
  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    They made trillions of marks, so yes they were extremely profitable.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 20 points 1 month ago* (1 child)

    I like that they never lost their gusto with the designs of the bills lol

    Like they had to know that their currency was basically dead, yet they still made sure that those 100 billion Mark notes looked classy as fuck.

    If/when the modern US makes it to this point, I can't imagine them putting all that much effort into making our $100 billion dollar bills look cool.

    They'll probably have fucking Steve Bannon's face on them.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 11 points 1 month ago* (4 children)

    I mean, you joke. But Germany pivoted out of the Great Depression far faster than its European peers precisely because they weren't afraid to print a bunch of money and pay people to do things.

    The Fascists inherited one of the only recovering economies in Europe by the time they took power in 1932. And when they assumed office, they brought investment from the Americans overseas (who were having their own fascist turn), because they were willing to purge or enslave local populations, tear down neighborhoods, and build up whatever capital Standard Oil, IBM, and Ford Motor Company asked of them.

    On the opposite side of the Atlantic and on the other side of the Urals, progressive liberals and Soviet communists were trying out a leftist mirror of this strategy. They were using the levers of the state to mobilize the masses of unemployed labor into productive capital improvements for the benefit of the public at-large. So the US, Germany, Japan, and the USSR all rapidly emerged out of the '29 crash into a booming 1930s economy. Meanwhile, England and France and much of Latin America and North Africa languished under artificial constraints of state-capitalism.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Why does that feel forebodingly familiar

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago* (2 children)

    I mean, we'll jump to 1930s on reflex. But this is a pattern that's repeated itself internationally, from Apartheid South Africa to the juntas in the Pacific Rim to Fascists in Argentina and Chile.

    Economy shits itself. Social Democrats come in to deliver milquetoast reforms. The economy recovers somewhat, but never enough to actually relieve the social pressures of the moment. And then the democratic system starts vomiting up radical candidates of all stripes, while bourgeois capital attempts to ride the tiger into the next full recovery and/or national emergency.

    The wheel of fortune doesn't always land on Fascism. But it's definitely a possibility.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

    It seems like we're plunging into fascism, but maybe this upcoming midterms will (not be rigged and) prove to be an effective backlash to the US' reactionary coup. What do you figure the odds are we pull out of this and say, "huh actually let's try that FDR thing instead of this Nazi shit"?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] -1 points 1 month ago (6 children)

    you are more profitable than OpenAI

    I've got mortgage debt though.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (4 children)

    See, you'd think people would do more research when lending billions for LLMs than when lending a dollar for a cardboard box.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    you won't generate a 1,000x return on investment, AI could if it becomes AGI somehow. It's like gambling but nobody knows the odds and the payout is big enough that it's almost worth it to try without knowing the odds.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 82 points 1 month ago* (3 children)

    So you're saying we should be pumping all our savings and pension money in WinRar?

  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 27 points 1 month ago (16 children)

    I was finally starting to save up money in a 401k for retirement. Then I got fired. Now the AI bubble is going to burst and nuke what little money is in my 401k. FML.

  • source
  • hideshow 16 child comments
  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    I’m trying to stick with it, and not pull a bunch of money out. If this is all just insider trading back and forth, my hope is it will recover over time and level out. (As that will be in the interest of the manipulators too.)

    If it’s just a big crash, like 1929 style, then I figure we’re all fucked whether you have stocks or dollar bills or CDs or doubloons.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (11 children)

    Some of the big S&P500 ETFs (like VOO) have shockingly little exposure to AI relative to the rest of the market

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 11 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (10 children)
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (9 children)
  • [–] 0 points 1 month ago (8 children)

    "Source: AI" is kinda wild for this purpose

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 8 child comments
  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (7 children)

    I don’t understand your comment - bogleheads is a forum of real people? I included a silly example illustrative of my point, but the forum is decidedly not AI. Did you miss the first link, which was the point of my comment?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 7 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (3 children)

    Literally the first sentence of the post you linked to says:

    I asked AI for advice on how to reduce our risk of the various AI stocks in our portfolio

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Couldn’t make it past the first comment, or are forums a new thing for you?

    Yes that’s how the thread started - what else did you learn?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 0 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I read through 20 or 30 comments, there is nothing that provides any evidence of your original claim, it's all just speculation and further GenAI crystal ball gazing (and a few other comments calling out that crystal ball gazing).

    I guess the concept of "evidence" is a new thing for you?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (2 children)

    The first post in that thread had a guy using AI to figure out how much of his portfolio was in AI.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 20 points 1 month ago* (7 children)

    I'm one of the seeming few who paid to register it back in the Win9x days. Turned out that the key also works for the non-free Linux version (think I only ever bothered to set that up once). These days gzipped tarballs or squashfs with zstd are my go-tos. The former for speed with source trees or such, and the latter for filesystem backups or larger directories, because loop mounting it is so fast and convenient.

  • source
  • hideshow 7 child comments
  • [–] 30 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    These days gzipped tarballs or squashfs with zstd are my go-tos.

    What the fuck did you just call me?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (2 children)

    The former for speed with source trees or such

    xz -0 is faster than gzip and has a higher compression ratio.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (1 child)

    That can't be right, all reports I have read about comparing xz with gzip tells me that xz will have better compression but at a slower speed than gzip.

    Have you run a test of gzip at the same compression level with the same data?

    I don't doubt that xz will be smaller, I doubt it will be quicker.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    This is actually stated in the xz man page: -0 is sometimes faster than gzip -9 while compressing much better.

    With a random test file on my system, xz -0 was 3 times as fast while achieving the same compression as gzip -6.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 20 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    “I remember once my father and I were walking down Fifth Avenue and there was a homeless person sitting right outside of Trump Tower and I remember my father pointing to him and saying, ‘You know, that guy has $8 billion more than me,’ because he was in such extreme debt at that point, you know?”

    ~ Ivanka Trump

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago (11 children)

    I wonder what will happen in 2027 when those repayments come due.

  • source
  • hideshow 11 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago* (3 children)

    The government will buy a stake to both pay billionaires more from collected taxes and control what information can be generated and making the spy apparatus backdoors tracking every question or command part of the official platforms.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

    I'll bet you $$$ right now that won't happen. First of all, they still won't be profitable. Second of all it's easy to just completely avoid interacting with LLMs.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (3 children)
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (2 children)

    That won't pay off the several hundred billion they owe.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 19 points 1 month ago

    And a more reliable product that returns the expected results every time.

  • source
  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (5 children)

    They'll reclassify it as a necessary utility like water or power and tax more subsidies for paying billionaires even more from public coffers before admitting it's mostly just search engines & corporate social media eating their own tail.

  • source
  • hideshow 5 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (4 children)

    This is why I think the bubble will last a lot longer than some people think. The heads of the tech firms have such a tight relationship with the GOP, and even a somewhat tight relationship with the Democrats that it's almost certainly going to be declared "too big to fail" or "too critical to fail".

    The fact that it's being used by the military just makes that even more likely. The firms will declare that if they go bankrupt, the military will be crippled -- despite the fact that the military ran just fine without "AI" just 5 years ago.

    So, when the economics of the situation show how absurd this bubble is, the collapse won't happen because the firms will be propped up by the US government. That will put every taxpayer on the hook for the billions and billions of debt these firms took on. So, Andreessen Horowitz and the Saudis will be bailed out by the taxpayers who have been fighting datacenters.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 0 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Chatbot labs don't employee enough people for too big to fail to be a concern. There isn't enough currency in existence to make them profitable.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago (2 children)

    It's not about how many people they employ. That wasn't an issue during the 2007/08 banking crisis either. It's about how much capital is tied up with them. Most voters would probably say "just let them fail", but the people whose money it is are the ones who have easy access to the politicians, and they're saying "this is too big to fail".

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago

    That is so true, bringing $40 Billion a year with about $80 Billion as expenses makes OpenAI indeed in a red zone. They should consider shutting down so that we can have some level of relief from AI slop.

  • source
  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    at this point a granny selling eggs is more profitable

  • source
  • [–] 10 points 1 month ago

    Actually, I’m pretty sure WeWork was more profitable than OpenAI, both in absolute dollars and percentage.

  • source
  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    at this rate Winamp might get more profitable than OpenAI and it is free.

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago

    Waiter, please bring me 1,000 of your finest shares of WinRAR! I'm going to be rich, I tell you! Quite!

  • source
  • [–] 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Capitalists: Noo its bad, see, it doesn't make profit

    Communists: Free AI for everyone

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Proprietary frontier LLMs in companies riddled with highly suspect business practices.

    My local LLM setup has absolutely been making the equivalence of positive cashflow for me since gemma 4 and qwen 3.8: I need less total time for several groups of annoying (but necessary) tasks, which means my productivity is up and I can use the rest as my own free time.

  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    I need less total time for several groups of annoying (but necessary) tasks

    Such as? Just curious what people use LLMs for.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)
    • Answer questions (with references) about source code and documentation
    • Add clear-bounded features to a pre-existing codebase
    • Transpile between programming languages

    Stuff I can do myself perfectly well, but the results - after postprocessing - are indistinguishable from me having done so. Even when accounting for everything (including hallucinations) the time savings are real: Renewables-powered electricity is cheaper than my attention. By a lot.

    Caveat: This only works if you're already a domain expert and if you do it exclusively for too long, you might be at risk of ceasing to be such an expert. Don't use it to try and do the thinking for you.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

    I handle so many text files in my job and LLMs help make the scripts for me to handle these text files. I know it is important to at least know stuff like regex but I am not a superhuman. It is difficult for me to heavily specialize in scripting while also specialize in the technicalities of my job. To help show why it is difficult to specialize scripting, I work with hardware description languages which have a different syntax from scripting languages. Handling different languages causes confusion on the proper syntax even with a basic if else statement because the syntax is different between languages.

    Aside from this, it can also help me automate describing what the sequences I created in the file for easy documentation. I just have to instruct the "patterns" it needs to look for. I just need to proofread the output and do minor fixes.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago (6 children)

    Tech companies are expected to be run at a loss for quite some time before they start being profitable.

    They were founded in 2015 and "officially" launched GPT in 2022 to the public. If they make profits by 2032, that would be in line with how other tech companies established themselves.

    For example, Spotify wasn't profitable until 2024. They launched in 2008.

    So, I don't know why them not being profitable is what everyone is talking about. They're not expected to be profitable until 2030 at the earliest. And every serious investor know this.

    Yes I'm very fun at parties. But it seems that a lot of people just do not understand the expected timelines of tech companies.

  • source
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Okay but the world had enough money to bankroll Spotify for 20 years. It doesn't have the kind of money OpenAI needs.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    And Spotify was barely making a loss AND had a lot of revenue. They were just putting more capital into infrastructure, etc. instead of profits.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    Excuse me? From 2017 to 2022. Spotify lost an average of ~430 million euro per year. And they weren't profitable from 2008 to 2016 either... -0.43 billion per year is not "barely making a loss". But investors saw potential and they kept funding.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    They have to at least have a plausible path to profitability. The serious investors have known for some time there isn't one with AI. Just because the AI companies will never be profitable long term doesn't mean there is no reason to invest in them short term. That's what a speculative bubble is. Everyone believes the line will keep going up long enough for them to turn around and sell to a greater fool in the near future. And for the most part they're right. The ultimate bag-holder ends up being the middle class worker and their auto-assigned 401k portfolio.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    They have multiple plausible paths to profitability. To claims there's none is just stupid. If they succeed or not is another question. But it's absolutely plausible.

    The product and profitability towards the average citizen of the world, is such a microscopic part of their goals. People using their product is nothing more than data to feed their model. When they're done. Their profits are not going to come from people. It's going to come from the US government and companies. The investments being poured into OpenAI isn't just disappearing into a black hole, lots of it remains in the hardware and digital infrastructure required for the project.

    Even if their public worth drops to 0. They will still keep being funded. Because the research is too important to let go of.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    They could if investors were happy with good enough and didn’t need to release a mediocre update every 8 weeks. Plenty of folks would be happy with opus 4.8 for the next few years and a $20 a month sub.

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    You seem to misunderstand "opus 4.8 and $20 a month" IS the reason why they are unprofitable.

    They already got the data and GPUs and lots of researchers doing research. In fact, since gpt-4o they have been trying to make these models smaller and more profitable.

    But at the present moment, they just can't beat chinese models on efficiency cuz that's what those companies were focusing on from the begining due to gpu export law US put.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    The Chinese models were also developed later and allegedly didn't have to focus so hard on the initial acquisition of training data, so were able to build their models completely differently.

    Think of it like developing dictionary technology. For the first dictionary, the hardest part is finding all the words that need to be defined. After that it's just a matter of adding new words occasionally as they're found.

    That's the "theft" the Western AI companies accused the Chinese companies of doing. By starting with the initial training data from Western devs, the Chinese AIs (allegedly) skipped over the hard part, which means they are able to focus more of their processing on the end product.

    And that's not necessarily a bad thing, depending on your perspective (ignoring all the ethical questions around AI data acquisition). Duplicating work someone else has already done is wasteful.

    But it's also disingenuous to say that the guy who takes an existing dictionary and changes all the definitions did a "better job" than the guy who wrote the first one, even if the end product is, in fact, better.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (1 child)

    If AI could really make your business so much more efficient that it makes up for the cost of paying for AI... Why doesn't Google just run your business themselves? They could make even more money than you do.

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • load more comments
    view more: next ›