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[–] 78 points 3 months ago* (14 children)

To build chips that are used as collateral for datacentres that have yet to be built, so the chips can’t be used, and they’ll just age out of usefulness.

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  • [–] 32 points 3 months ago* (11 children)

    and they’ll just age out of usefulness.

    Nah, we'll stall on this generation. Even if a new one is released, very few will pay the extra when games would alreadyhave to start becoming RAM optimized again. Even Windows just dropped their 32GB recommendation.

    Without the recommendation being met, people weren't buying windows PCs, so lower the requirement and people will buy more computers and more copies of windows. Which means they always could have just optimized better if they felt pressure.

    Games will 100% do the same.

    Which could be a huge thing for rational companies right now.

    The big hurdle to domestic production is you'll spend billions and by the time it's built it's "last gen".

    Instead of useless data centers, we could be building up domestic chip production, confident it will still produce top of the line chips when it goes live.

    A literal golden opportunity, more so if China goes after Taiwan finally, you'd be the only international supplier.

    As far as I know, no country is doing it tho.

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  • [–] 14 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Even Windows just dropped their 32GB recommendation.

    Yes, but they haven't actually done the memory optimisation work. They just plan to sell underpowered machines.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago* (1 child)

    Odd to think that the Windows Vista days are coming around again.

    Wasn't that one of the reasons that people didn't like it? A lot of manufacturers basically just crammed it onto XP-spec machines, so it ran horrendously, and was generally awful to use.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    And also everyone was running garbage Windows XP applications which wanted administrator permissions and to save it's data in the Program Files folder.

    For years the accounts software we used at work required you to install it in C:\ because it couldn't handle keeping it's data and executable in different places.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    ...

    They didn't need 32 GB to run windows...

    They never needed 32 GB to run windows, they never would.

    Windows said every laptop needs what a gaming pc needs, because Windows wanted us to have that ram to use AI features that are coming.

    Like....

    They didn't have to optimize because they never needed it to begin with

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago*

    There's no problem with 'last gen' right now. The "ai" bullshit and global rise of fascism has slowed tech progress to a crawl, and even ten or fifteen year old systems are pretty good right now.

    Plus, you're making this or drafting tables.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    You’re right about domestic production but I think the situation is much worse. We’ve tried to make advanced chips domestically and we can’t do it. Taiwan has had decades to perfect the resource allocation, supply chains, knowledge, and work culture to make those damn things.

    It should be an executive order to make them domestically, and put up with the years of failure and low output. It’s a matter of national security to be able to create and maintain computers and other advanced tech.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    None of the chips built for datacentres are useful for gaming. None of the RAM in these chips is useful for normal computing - even servers - much less home gaming.

    AI compute believes it’s still in a β€œrace” so they won’t want to be using previous gen chips unless forced to in some way.

    This isn’t the β€œdark fibre” of the AI bubble. It’s just a future pile of trash.

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  • [–] 0 points 3 months ago

    None of the chips built for datacentres are useful for gaming. None of the RAM in these chips is useful for normal computing - even servers - much less home gaming.

    ....

    Yes, literally everyone knows that...

    If you ask why the production of two different form factors that use the same infrastructure could effect the quantities produced, I can probably explain that for you.

    But it's like being surprised you have to wait in line at checkout despite being the only person in Costco buying a single can of grape soda, so hopefully you can figure it out from here.

    Next time you feel like you're missing something though, it's easier to just ask first rather than hoping someone else takes all this time instead of just ignoring you and not explaining what you're missing

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    I know you know this, but PC RAM is useful for a lot more than games. Workstation PCs are where I find this situation really hurts. I suppose that to an extent, some of what you describe might apply to development and design tools.

    Before this shortage took off, I got a rock-5-itx (ARM computer) with a whopping 32GB of RAM which was definitely overkill for the home server I use it as, but now it feels insanely decadent. I'm looking for ways to utilize it, like running Immich with the full AI facial recognition features and whatnot, Nextcloud with the full text search, etc.

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  • [–] 153 points 3 months ago (34 children)

    Looks like I'm gonna keep on rocking my pre-Covid era computer without an upgrade for a few more years.

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  • [–] 23 points 3 months ago

    My steam deck has become my all in one. Sucks memory card prices have leaped the past year. But I got a couple terabytes, so I'll be alright, just going to have to shuffle them around. But I'm cool with not having 240 hz 4k on Powerthirst settings. I got a back log anyways and a yard to get back into shape.

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  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    I got 3 6+ year old thinkpads that are all chugging along just fine. got them all for dirt cheap.

    But as another person said keep that shit for as long as possible and learn how to properly maintain it. New stuff is absolutely horrible. I recently had an ASUS laptop that fried itself after 3 years. was getting really wonky 2 years in.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    I have an Asus laptop and the touchpad stopped working tue first week. Piece of garbage.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    they really are horrible laptops, especially the ROG ones. Those things on day one you turn it on are like "alright, time to start killing myself". you can keep all the fans constantly clean, repaste them every few months, and they'll still cook themselves alive. and the AC adapter will die on you faster than the laptop itself. I had to replace the AC adapter on mine 3 times in 2 years.

    Friends don't let friends buy Asus laptops.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    This is wild to hear? What year(s) are we talking on these Asus laptops? Everything Asus I've bought has been rock solid, and I go out of my way to get their hardware. I haven't really bought any new systems or components in about 5 years though...

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    Asus laptops are such trash. Same with Acer. I kept seeing people recommend them but every time I bought one it came with a major manufacturing defect or some important component failed almost immediately.

    That happened to me three times and I had to return each laptop. So now when I buy a laptop, I only go for ThinkPads and MacBooks. And tbh it'll only be macs going forward because Lenovo can't be trusted.

    Say what you will about apple but their hardware quality can't be beaten and going forward there are people building Linux distros for them. So even when apple stops updating them you should have options.

    Only thing that sucks is MacBooks are crazy expensive. So I buy them used/refurbed from good sellers on eBay. Haven't had an issue yet.

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  • [–] 36 points 3 months ago (23 children)

    Keep it as long as possible, the new shit suuuucks, is built to break & riddled with adware.

    Back in my day ;) we had to worry about keeping up with the newest tech because you needed it for the best games or whatever.

    These days, my desktop from 2014 can run all of the new games that I want to play (yes, even the demanding ones) It has 32 gigs ram and a 1660 Ti. That's really all I need, especially since most of the games I enjoy AREN'T new.

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  • [–] 48 points 3 months ago (20 children)

    How is adware an issue? I haven’t had any of that with my Mint machine.

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  • [+] -30 points 3 months ago (19 children)

    It's baked into a ton of hardware updates these days. Trust me, in 5-10 years it'll be a big deal if we don't do something about it..like yesterday.

    Also, OS doesn't matter if it's a bios update.

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  • [–] 64 points 3 months ago* (18 children)

    That's...not how device firmware works.

    You're not going to get adware drivers on a Linux system unless you're using stuff that's supremely sketchy and also installing things you shouldn't be. What you're thinking of is 3rd party windows drivers.

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  • [+] -27 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    Android runs on Linux, wouldn't you agree that Android is compromised?

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  • [–] 23 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

    Android depends on who gave it to you. If you install Linux from a parking lot flash drive it doesn't mean the Linux project is compromised, it means you got pwned.

    I'd make the same argument about installing pre-compromised pirated windows but...windows kinda just is malware now.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    It's actually scary how wrong you are while being so confident. It's not even just wrong but also so incredibly dumb. Doesn't matter if you're drunk or not, you're clearly an ignorant fucking idiot.

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  • [+] -27 points 3 months ago (11 children)

    Also, If your motherboard installs something through a bios update, that has nothing to do with your OS. It comes before.

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  • [–] 32 points 3 months ago (9 children)

    Please point out the bios deployed adware you are talking about, or I'll have to assume you're just talking from vibes.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Lenovo had spyware baked into the chips that would reinstall itself if it was removed from the OS. It was a big thing.

    Although I believe that was just for Windows. But the functionality exists for them to do it to Linux if they decide to.

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago

    Multiple (most?) motherboard manufacturers have options to install drivers and software from the BIOS. So you don't have to go download it elsewhere just to get your system up and running.

    That setting can be turned off. In fact they usually turn themselves off after the first boot because otherwise it would prompt every time.

    But, you're referencing Lenovo, a full system integrator, not a separate hardware company. Of course the system integrators bundle shit, that's not new at all. They've done that for decades.

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  • [+] -11 points 3 months ago (5 children)
  • [+] -19 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    Thank you, I'm too drunk to argue with this nerd ;)

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  • [–] 18 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    well, that article disagrees with you though. That "feature" is only going to do anything to Windows installations.

    Also, OS doesn't matter if it's a bios update.

    The ASUS UEFI firmware exposes an ACPI table to Windows 10, called "WPBT" or "Windows Platform Binary Table". WPBT is used in the pre-built OEM industry, and is referred to as "the Vendor's Rootkit." Put simply, it is a script that makes Windows copy data from the BIOS to the System32 folder on the machine and execute it during Windows startup - every single time the system is booted.

    also, https://github.com/Jamesits/dropWPBT

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago*

    That not how that shit is done.

    The BIOS just take care of the basics, but Windows do have an API allowing the BIOS to ask for the installation of additional drivers. That process was abused (and continue to be) by multiple hardware vendors to install spywares or adwares.
    Linux doesn't have that API, and just ignore such requests.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago

    is built to break

    honestly, i kinda agree to this, the current gaafets and mbcfets designs are like fuses on a nano scale if it doesn't have REALLY good power management. Unlike with finfets where the channels/source are still connected firmly on base to dissipate heat in case of a nasty power draw.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    Luckily two and a half years ago I decided it was time for a new computer. I go more than a decade between new PCs so it was just really dumb luck that I got a new computer when I did. And the reason I can go so long between computers is because I always get way more RAM than I need when I get a new one.

    So given the current state of things, it's a little awkward to admit how much RAM is in my computer.

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  • [–] 75 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    Sold out with pinky promises, not with actual money, no.

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  • [–] 46 points 3 months ago* (4 children)

    its nvidia and AI creating a bubble on the belief they'll be able to get profit and get out before it pops.

    But all it is.. is imaginary money going around in circles. nvidia invests a trillion in AI, AI buys a trillion dollars of nvidia videocards from some nebulous point in the future where they arent made yet, nvidia invests that trillion back into AI, AI uses it to buy ridiculous amounts of ram that wont be made for years, RAM invests it back into AI, and on and on they go, generating imaginary money and value, by buying imaginary things.

    under a sane government this would be investigated as raw stock manipulation and fraud

    I really hope when this bubble pops nvidia is destroyed in the process along with the AI companies.

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Nvidia already made tons of profit off it. They're the ones selling shovels.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

    Then Nvida financed more shovels to the speculators in the hopes that enough of them will strike gold it will get paid back, but also created a shortage in the shovel market so the price of shovels is going through the roof.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago

    If by "pinky promises" you mean contractually binding letters of intent, then yes. This is standard procedure in any manufacturing industry when dealing with orders of massive quantities, because it normally also requires investment from the manufacturer in equipment which they don't make on non-binding "pinky promises).

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  • [–] 72 points 3 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 55 points 3 months ago (12 children)

    Good. Time for software to be optimized again.

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  • [+] 42 points 3 months ago (9 children)
  • [–] 16 points 3 months ago (7 children)

    Vibe coders will ask the AI to write everything in Rust, memory usage will be reasonably low

    The people writing everything in Electron are gonna have a fun time with their users though.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    nah some dude got recently covered in press b/c he used an LLM to derive Assembly from C.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Huh? C compiles to machine code.

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  • [–] -1 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Yes, but why write C when we can let the LLM write assembly directly? Compilers are unnecessary bloat we don’t have a need for with modern technology.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    low-level compilers can output very ugly-looking assembly. he probably did this and then used LLM to super-optimize it. may be perfomant, but id guess that theres a risk that its unsafe.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago*

    I was about to get insulted but I almost closed the lid on the laptop by accident and now have to make sure my cloude still operational on the task I gave it, so I can't be rerouting my attention span resources

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  • [–] 40 points 3 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 35 points 3 months ago (13 children)

    Things don't add up. I see articles about computer parts becoming unavailable along with articles about data center plans being cancelled or not getting built. I assume the data centers ARE getting built and those second articles are lies to calm people down.

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  • [–] 65 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    OpenAI has a deal with Samsung and SK Hynix to purchase 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, or 40% of global DRAM output. These are just uncut wafers, accumulating in warehouses that serve two purposes:

    • Prepares them for the distribution to data centers,
    • Manipulates the supply chain to squeeze their competitors, who are left with slim pickings.

    You and I are the victims of this until the bubble finally pops and the deal falls through.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago* (1 child)

    You and I are the victims

    We're way downstream. The "victims" are all the SaaS and smaller market cap firms that need business compute for accounting and commerce.

    Case in point, I got a request for a new server delayed three months because we blew through our Q1 budget for new hardware faster than expected.

    That's not really hurting me, personally. But it means our server teams need to do more with less even as the business expands.

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  • [–] 20 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    It's because it's a Ponzi scheme. Huge amounts of investment dollars are being dumped into AI and anything related to AI. If you build any kind of chips that are used in AI datacenters, you suddenly have a bunch of money invested in your company. What do you do with it? You make a deal with OpenAI (or one of the other ones) that you'll invest that money into them if they agree to buy a bunch of chips from you. Now you have revenue on books and are showing a reasonable return on that investment.

    If you were a chip manufacturer and actually believed that there was a big future in AI, you'd be using those investment dollars to build some more chip fabs. And some of these companies are doing that. But overall, moving money to another company so they will order chips for datacenters that aren't built yet (and may never be built) is just bubble ponzi shenanigans.

    Computer hardware depreciates in value very quickly. You don't buy hardware today so you can install that hardware in a datacenter that won't be online for another year.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    Capitalists wet dream is to make more money without investing any new capital. Chip fabs are in a situation like that where they can make buttload more money without changing anything except charging more.

    Nothing will change because the alternative is investing billions just to keep the price down. They'd rather pocket the billions now.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago (4 children)

    If you were a chip manufacturer and actually believed that there was a big future in AI, you’d be using those investment dollars to build some more chip fabs.

    Major new semiconductor fabrication plant projects are expanding across the United States, led by a $16.8 billion SpaceX and Tesla "Terafab" project in Grimes County, Texas, massive expansions by TSMC in Arizona, and Samsung's ongoing fab development in Taylor, Texas.

    Computer hardware depreciates in value very quickly. You don’t buy hardware today so you can install that hardware in a datacenter that won’t be online for another year.

    Hardly unusual for speculators to buy up a hot commodity the day of release and then resell it into an inflated secondary market a few days or weeks later.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago (1 child)

    TSMC was because of the Chips Act and it's not DRAM.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    TSCM's Arizona plant was announced in May 2020.

    And it has much more to do with defense industry senators brokering the deal than Biden's presidency.

    The Chips Act was in committee with bipartisan support before the election was decided. Senator Warner joined U.S. senator John Cornyn in introducing the $52 billion CHIPS for America Act was back in June of 2020.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    My take is more of a:
    1000 DCs were planned
    200 are getting cancelled
    800 are yet to be built, built, supplied with products

    and of the 800 remaining DCs, some are buying the stock that is now free or the orders are rerouted by the ordering company to other locations that also need more hardware.

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  • [–] 33 points 3 months ago

    Dodge must be pretty happy.

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  • [–] 21 points 3 months ago (8 children)

    My kid wants to build a gaming PC for their birthday.

    Am I cooked?

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago

    SODIMM ram is still cheap. You could build them a ddr4 intel system with integrated graphics (ideally Arc cores or plenty of EUs) that will run some older or simpler games at 40-60fps with a little upscaling, and the whole thing could be done for 500-700 I reckon.

    Either that or maybe build an AM4 if you find a used GPU at a good price.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    Microcenter or some similar physical store is probably your own hope. They run pretty decent deals to bring you into the store.

    I’d recommend visiting one for Black Friday/cyber Monday. It’s probably your only hope for things not to be ridiculously overpriced. Instead you’ll just pay for very overpriced items.

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  • [–] 17 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    At least monitors are cheap now.

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