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[–] 145 points 8 months ago (4 children)

I’m sure this had nothing to do with it, yeah? Fuck the PedoNazis and the Swasticar company.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Ah, what a time to be alive: Pedo nazis are trying to take over the U.S. (and other parts of the world), and we‘re driving around in swasticars. Sounds like the plot of some 80‘s movie, but somehow it’s the reality we live in. And, somehow, where I live (central Europe), people are still voting for right-wing parties, seeing what is happening, seeing history repeating itself. This ignorance is infathomable to me, and I can only hope that either we will never suffer the consequences of what we‘re voting for or we learn it for real this time.

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  • [–] 112 points 8 months ago (35 children)

    Tesla global sales by year compared to Ford and Toyota

    The incredible thing isn't the slight down tick in sales last year (on par with most international car companies), but that Tesla has a market cap that exceeds both of these mega-manufacturers despite being dwarfed in both assets and revenues.

    On paper, they have so much farther to fall than what these short term sales shortfalls imply. But then this is a car company that's defied gravity for a decade. Consider that each vehicle Tesla sells reflects $700k - $1M in market cap. On a $60k-$110k vehicle.

    All their valuation is predicated on future predicted returns on the technology rather than current sales figures. And I don't know when that will actually change.

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  • [–] 42 points 8 months ago (14 children)

    It's very clear that at this point, insofar as there is any logic at all to the decision making of people investing in Tesla (and there's very little evidence of that), they're evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.

    This seems to be largely based on the notion that Tesla is the world leader in self-driving, and poised to become the world leader in other areas of automation. And that would, admittedly, mostly justify their very high share price, if there was literally any evidence it was true. Of course, what they actually have is a self-driving system that is only number one in fatalities caused, and a bunch of faked demos of robots made using low paid remote operators.

    Tesla is easily the single best demonstration of how fucked our economic system really is. That a company can so blatantly lie, over and over, about what their products can actually do, and somehow continue to see their share price increase tells you everything you need to know about how utterly fictitious the entire notion of the stock market is.

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  • [–] 26 points 8 months ago (11 children)

    they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.

    That still doesn't justify the valuation. Tesla's market cap is 3x Oracle's, ffs. It's half of a Microsoft. No software they produce can justify this valuation.

    Palantir and NVIDIA have the same hyper-inflated position. Nothing in their projected revenue figures can explain their company's valuation, unless you're just hand-waving and predicting 10-20x growth over the next decade.

    Tesla is easily the single best demonstration of how fucked our economic system really is. That a company can so blatantly lie, over and over, about what their products can actually do, and somehow continue to see their share price increase tells you everything you need to know about how utterly fictitious the entire notion of the stock market is.

    Warren Buffet definitely gearing up to print off another deck of "Fell For It Again" awards. Only question is when they get handed out.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago* (10 children)

    unless you're just hand-waving and predicting 10-20x growth over the next decade.

    That's exactly what they're doing.

    The problem is that hyper-advanced automation is essentially unpriceable. When your potential market penetration is "replace all human labour" your profit potential is infinite.

    The real is issue is not how they're pricing the potential upside, its that none of these companies have remotely demonstrated that they have the ability to actually produce that upside. It's an entire industry shilling a fantasy on the back of some very impressive sales demos.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (9 children)

    The problem is that hyper-advanced automation is essentially unpriceable.

    I mean, I could point you to a few economics journalists who would argue otherwise. Ed Zitron's been screaming about the downfall of AI for the last two years straight.

    But the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, as the saying goes.

    It’s an entire industry shilling a fantasy on the back of some very impressive sales demos.

    Doesn't hurt to have a bunch of tech-friendly goobers running state and federal governments who are turning out the taxpayer's wallet to finance these hallucinations.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (8 children)

    I mean, I could point you to a few economics journalists who would argue otherwise. Ed Zitron’s been screaming about the downfall of AI for the last two years straight.

    I feel like you're only reading every other sentence of what I say. In this instance, you seem to have fixated on this part, but sailed right past the part where I said that there's zero evidence that anyone can actually produce hyper-advanced automation. I never argued that it was a rational decision to go all in on this possibility, and that's entirely clear from my previous comments.

    Ed Zitron is completely correct, but he's also making exactly the same argument I am; that these people cannot actually achieve the technological revolution they are promising. That doesn't change the fact that, if their wish granting genie was real, it would basically have unlimited upside. The problem is not how they're pricing the outcome, the problem is how they're evaluating the probability of achieving the outcome.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    there’s zero evidence that anyone can actually produce hyper-advanced automation

    There's plenty of evidence (Waymo, for instance, or Xaiome) that companies can produce "good enough" advanced automation. Tesla's just not the guy to make it happen. Same with AI. Very possible to produce useful tools (Alibaba's Deepseek, Insilico Medicine's Pharma.AI, etc) with LLMs. Sam Altman's just not doing it.

    Ed Zitron is completely correct, but he’s also making exactly the same argument I am; that these people cannot actually achieve the technological revolution they are promising.

    Zitron's heavily focused on the economics. Specifically, he's fixated on the cost of running the American data centers relative to their prospective future revenues and profit horizons. He's not even "anti-Tech" relatively speaking. He's just reading balance sheets and doing basic math on depreciation rate of hardware to conclude the current business models won't work.

    This isn't to say it can't happen. It's to say these businesses won't make it happen.

    The problem is not how they’re pricing the outcome

    This is where we're in disagreement. They're pricing their outcomes totally wrong, even in their self-proclaimed "best case scenario". That's leading them toward malinvestment - heavy spending on hardware and brute force algorithms. Marginal investment on material applications and workflow integrations that benefit anyone.

    This isn't a probability problem where they can luck into a multi-trillion dollar windfall.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (2 children)

    Kudos for mentioning Xiaomi, they recently showed off their newest car factory, and it's insanely highly automated, with workers basically only doing quality control!
    China is probably the new masters of mass production, which I suppose is natural considering they have a home market of 1.4 billion people, they can invest in mass production for China only, and have a scale that is 4 times the scale of USA!
    No country has ever had such a massive home market before China, and I think it's a huge advantage for China regarding mass production.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (1 child)

    No country has ever had such a massive home market before China

    glances at India

    But then that's just the BRICS in a nutshell. Five countries with enormous internal consumer demand, which can afford to develop domestically to meet the needs of their local populations without worrying too much about export markets.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    Sam Altman’s just not doing it.

    Just to be clear to those who might not get deeply into these things: Sam Altman is a salesman, and has no technical role within OpenAI. His job is to milk the VC tittie, to pump up the share price, to seek government subsidies, and to promise users the moon on a stick.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (1 child)

    Again, we're still in that "reading every over sentence" mode. For example, I say "hyper-advanced automation" and you reply claiming that "Good enough" automation is perfectly achievable. Yes. I know. I never said it wasn't. I never said anything about good enough automation at all. And that kind of thing goes on throughout your response here.

    By all means continue your conversation with whoever you think is making all these arguments, but they bare little resemblance to anything I'm saying, so there's really no point in my responding any further.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago*

    “Good enough”

    Here “Good enough” matches the quality of most car brands and AFAIK surpasses Tesla.
    To get quality like BMW or Mercedes, is probably only a matter of the automation being more expensive, there is no reason to think for instance Xiaomi couldn't make higher quality automated assembly on more expensive cars.
    Tesla assembly sucks, I have often heard reviewers complain about noises you wouldn't find in way cheaper European cars.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    if their wish granting genie was real, it would basically have unlimited upside

    Another way of putting that is that, if for once, some of Elmo's endlessly disproven hyperbole is in fact true, it'd have unlimited upside. So yeah, the chance of Tesla achieving a miracle is vanishingly slim.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    It’s very clear that at this point, insofar as there is any logic at all to the decision making of people investing in Tesla (and there’s very little evidence of that), they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.

    Nah, the logic to the decision is that other people are buying a lot of tesla stock and the price keeps going up. It's very nearly a ponzi scheme. It has value completely detached to what the company is doing. It's tulips, crypto, beanie babies. Most institutional investors realizes this, they also are trying to get in and get out without holding the bag.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    It’s very clear that at this point, insofar as there is any logic at all to the decision making of people investing in Tesla (and there’s very little evidence of that), they’re evaluating it as a software company, not a car company.

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  • [–] 16 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    I think the 3 things Tesla has/had going for them was...

    1. Car sales growth. The had some pretty ridiculous growth in sales for a few years there.

    2. Captive Market. Pretty much everyone I know with a Tesla charges at home, or at a Tesla supercharger. They've got the Apple ecosystem lock in for the "fuel" you put in the car. This walled garden approach basically lets Apple print money.

    3. Technology. FSD, autopilot, and manufacturing. Tesla presented as a very tech focused company that was dumping money into R&D similar to how Amazon built up in the early 2000s. Investors love companies that are poised to control the entire market in the future.

    Pretty much all 3 of these pillars have collapsed now. Their car sales are in a huge global slump. More cars are available that can charge on other charging networks, and those charging networks get bigger and better every day. Elon's FSD is basically vaporware at this point, and the high degree of automation Tesla was touting in their factories came back to bite them in the ass.

    This leads to my favorite recent quote about stocks though... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Let's face it, Tesla stock is a bubble, AI is a huge bubble. The problem isn't knowing that there is a bubble, the problem is knowing when that bubble is going to burst.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (2 children)

    Remember WeWork? Lots of dumb people with money and if enough dumb people sustain their dumbness it doesn’t really matter. Stock goes up.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    What? How is possible that Ford is only 4x the global volume of Tesla? In my European country I see Ford everywhere while Teslas are a rare bird.

    Maybe the Chinese sales are influencing those numbers? (Ford doesn't sell as Ford in China but as a joint venture)

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    How many of those fords have been sold in only the past 2-3 years?

    Hell, a lot of the "latest" models of ford (in terms of appearance) are as old as Tesla sales

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    I was biased by the big amount of the cheaper models that they used to sell until 2023. In the new car marketshare they crashed from 8% to 3% now that the cheapest option they're offering is 30k instead of 15k

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Apparently the numbers are real, even if in the Tesla numbers there are 600k for China.

    Also, I didn't notice that Ford nowadays only focuses on the premium market and sells way less units than 20 years ago, the Fords I'm seeing around are the cheaper fiesta and ka that are now discontinued

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    I suspect many investors are betting that, in the near term at least, Trump will rig things in Musk's favor. Don't assume they only consider the traditional fundamentals of corporate valuation.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (4 children)

    So if sales are down 50% or more in Europe, where are these cars sold?

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    For starters, SpaceX, which operates the Starlink satellite network, has purchased over 1,000 Tesla Cybertrucks as of late 2025.

    Meanwhile, Police departments across the U.S. - particularly in California - are increasingly adopting Tesla vehicles (Model Y, Model 3, and Cybertruck) for patrol and administrative use. South Pasadena (CA) became the first U.S. city to switch its entire police patrol fleet to electric vehicles. Other departments, including Anaheim and Fremont, are using Tesla Model Ys for patrol. The Las Vegas Metro Police Department is introducing a fleet of 10 Cybertrucks for patrol and tactical use, specifically highlighting their safety features (bullet-resistant). A Texas school district created it's own police force to be equipped with 9 Tesla cruisers two years back.

    The Model Y is the new Crown Vic.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    It's worth noting that SpaceX buying Tesla is Musk selling to Musk. Leaving that aside, there's no demand for Cybertrucks except that which has been pumped up by Musk and by the rotten Trumpkin.

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  • [–] 47 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    List of stuff that I can't accept from a vehicle:

    • If it's created by a Nazi
    • If the gear selector is on a touchscreen
    • If the blinkers are on a touch button
    • If the wipers are on a menu on a touchscreen
    • If it has no support for Android auto or carplay
    • If it requires a subscription for something that is already present at moment of purchase or is done locally by the headunit
    • If the doors don't have a mechanical unlock from outside or inside (no, the mechanical unlock from inside it's too hidden to be considered, in case of emergency nobody will be able to find it before being burned alive - even in a hidden room game they don't hide levers under rubber mats in drawers)
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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Well at point one, you’ve lost Volkswagen

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  • [–] 32 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

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  • [–] 28 points 8 months ago

    Any company with a functional board of directors would have fired the CEO yesterday.

    This is not a legitimate business. Institutional investors should be running away from this company.

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  • [–] 47 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    We should get those numbers lower. Every Tesla is one too much.

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  • [–] 18 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Higher is better in this case. 100% preferably.

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  • [–] 43 points 8 months ago

    No worries! The stock price keeps going up, so it doesn't matter how many cars Tesla actually sells.

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  • [–] 18 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Tesla cars also fail the mandatory safety inspections in Europe at an alarming rate. That's not a good look when buying a new car.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    They're also notoriously terrible build quality.

    I will give Tesla credit for one solitary thing: They did help jumpstart electrics. Help. Not cause.

    But that has been picked up by real car manufacturers, who just need more encouragement to continue to increase numbers, along with infrastructure projects to bring more charging stations to more places. A critical area would be for installations in places like apartment parking lots and various public parking lots (i.e. paid parking but I mean shopping lots)

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  • [–] 17 points 8 months ago

    Off-topic, but...

    it occurred to me the other day that Tesla (the actual person) has been exploited by Edison in real life. A century later his name is exploited yet again by another "genius inventor". I just feel bad for the guy.

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  • [–] 30 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Means that too many people are still buying teslas though.

    My friend has one. When I saw her I asked if she knew there was dog shit on her drive. She came out and asked where. Wasn't hapoy when I pointed at her tesla.

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I'd like to see this article's sources for the Norwegian sales number. Unfortunately, most other sources point to an about 40% increase in Tesla sales here last year. I generally like my country's adoption of evs (I'm on my third), but the fact that the muskrat keeps selling cars in norway massively bugs me :/

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    IIRC that was because of the legislation change? Something about luxury vehicles thing stuff cheap thing change....projections are that it'll crater this year? But I have zero sources, but that's a starting point for a search, I guess. I'm about to start watching a gig so I'll leave that someone better.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Their bubble is slowly leaking, and it will never inflate again. Tesla will be bankrupt in 3 years.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    There are plenty of MAGA sheep, plus Teslas still seem to be super popular among the transplants from India in my area to keep the company around for a long time. SpaceX & Starlink have essentially no competition and Musk will just pivot.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago

    I see more BYDs in my country's streets.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Musk fucked around and found out.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago
    [–] 8 points 8 months ago

    I am sure this is what Rubio meant when he said that they "need Europe to help save the West" the other day. Right?

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Yaaaaaay.

    Does this mean we can get the real "Tesla"s soon?

    Nikola Tesla style tech, not Tesla Corporation style tech. Emanipatory tech, not rentier tech. Spaceships for everybody, not cars and rockets for the rich enough.

    No? It doesn't mean that? Aw.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago

    The FY2025 vs FY2024 numbers were plenty damning. Comparing January 2026 to previous Januaries is kinda silly given how much monthly fluctuation there is, and how few markets actually report on Monthly numbers

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago* (7 children)

    Look. I know Norway be cool in this, but I'm actually kind of shocked at just 93%.

    Edit: Though, looking at the figures, makes sense. Business as usual if you don't consider the one-off spike they're comparing to to get that figured.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Yeah, the numbers for Norway are when the cars are registered, which happens when they arrive at the dealer. Since Tesla ships their cars in large batches, the numbers are difficult to compare.

    I’m (unfortunately) certain that most of the decline in sales will disappear once the first big delivery of 2026 comes ashore.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    So what is it for the year then?

    If I'm reading your comment correctly, if they have no delivery that month... Their "sales" would be pretty much 0.

    So why the fuck are we cherry picking numbers unrepresentative of reality? This is some right wing type of shit.

    Oh that's why:

    2024: 24,259 new Tesla cars registered in Norway. 2025: 34,285 new Tesla cars registered in Norway.

    https://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2026/01/norway-full-year-2025-record-market-39-5-tesla-and-model-y-at-all-time-high/

    Got no clue on reliability of the source, but there's 3 on top of my search seem to line up.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (2 children)

    IIRC tax reasons made it very much smarter to buy a Tesla in Dec 2025 than in Jan 2026. Norway has had a drop in sales, but stuff like this skews the numbers.

    "Gonna buy a nazi mobile yet?"

    "Nah, I have ethics."

    "They will be more expensive next year though"

    Runs to the dealership

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    I think we underestimate how much the public cares... Reddit/Lemmy tend to be a very big echo chambers and we've seen several big events where online discource was completely at odds with reality. It still doesn't explain how the increase. Because up until today, I believed Europe stopped buying them, but then the figures pedalled are fucking fake. Not sure how your place does it, but here the year of the car is on a reg plate... I see a lot of new teslas, far more than any other EV. I've seen couple of Renault 5s! Those are cool. But in the +40k mark? Just teslas. Despite allegedly MG making a Tesla killer a year ago, I've yet to see a single one.

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago

    The sentiment I see on various Facebook groups (dad Facebook) is that Tesla is still best value for money when it comes to EVs.

    But yeah people bought cars in December because of tax reasons (basically 5k usd extra tax on cars above 50k)

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Don't you know that Tesla will be building a Dyson Sphere together with SpaceX at a 100 Morbillion valuation? Who cares about cars?

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    Imagine where we'd be already if Nikola Tesla had his way.

    Certainly not being hosed of all wealth, to enrich an oligarch, keeping us down, on the lie that the oligarch's our saviour.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago
    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Good. More please.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    That’s a good start.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    Textbook case of how to absolutely obliterate first-mover advantage. Pretty remarkable actually.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago
    [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    Luckily most his real income is from the US government and consumers cannot impoverish this level headed and clear minded ketamine addict with their misguided purchasing decisions.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    I need articles like this to make me feel just a slight bit of joy with all the absolute insanity going on daily in the US.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    UK must try harder.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    That’s awesome to read

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago
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