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[–] 6 points 1 month ago

The fix was always in. And trust me, there will be a red wave this November in the states. The media will call it a "miracle," and only a few of us will know better.

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  • 79 comments in c/world@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 137 points 1 month ago* (6 children)

    Starting to feel more and more like humanity doesn't deserve a happy ending.

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  • [–] 82 points 1 month ago* (29 children)

    Think this is organic or mostly the result of US election interference? No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying "I want in"

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  • [–] 44 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying “I want in”

    Frustratingly, it's entirely possible. We're seeing a similar thing in Australia with a bunch of imbecilic shills for billionaires and mining companies polling better than they ever have even though they've basically promised to be an Aussie version of the trump administration. We're all fucked, and it's just as much the fault of our friends, neighbours, and families as it is the oligarchs.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago* (1 child)

    It doesn't help the the party who spruiks that they're for the working class, has done nothing but fellate the epstein class and tell the workers 'We've got ours' for the last 3 years.

    Absolutely nothing done on housing but it's all good, they passed a tax cut for the rich!

    Vote Greens if you want real change. Labor are liberal-lite (and it's becoming less 'lite' day by day)

    Edit: Don't forget that Labor are union-busters and want lower working conditions for laborers.

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  • [–] 79 points 1 month ago

    No way Brazilians are watching the far right clown show around the world and saying “I want in”

    Literally as you said, far right clown show around the world as in: everyone is seeing it and saying "yes please, I want some of that too." it's unfuckingbelievable how this shit keeps happening... It's absolutely going to be the decade (or more) of the far reich. :/

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  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 child)

    People don't think that far. "It's the economy, stupid."

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    Brazilian economy is doing OK. Growing higher that predicted expectations, low inflation compared with the rest of the world (the government determine gasoline and Diesel prices so it's shielded from international shocks). But people live on algorithmic bubbles that show them violence, crime and rage bait 24/7, all of that plus "I like Lula but my pastor told me to vote Bolsonaro" evangelicals

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  • [–] -2 points 1 month ago (21 children)

    Has Lula measurably improved people's lives?

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  • [–] 24 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    I dont know. But I know a far right candidate won't. Factually not in their ideology.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Almost certainly. But that doesn't mean people would keep in power the candidate that hasn't done (assuming) enough for them. So wherever we want to prevent far right getting in power, we better do what needs doing for people and fast.

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  • You’re not wrong. But also, this is literally the son of the previous leader who was jailed for his actions as president (iirc). It’s almost as dumb as us here in the US re-electing the guy who’s COVID response was likely responsible for a half-million unnecessary deaths.

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  • [–] 21 points 1 month ago

    This is the thing people keep missing. Democracy is usually reactionary. What gets people to come vote is to "throw the bums out", to bring in change. It's hard to get people to rally around the boring old status quo, especially if people think the status quo sucks.

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  • [–] 41 points 1 month ago (9 children)

    Bolsonaro didn't so what's your point?

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  • [–] 29 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Problem is that people only remember the incumbent. You get off power, you spend the next 4 years dragging your opponent through the mud, criticising everything they do, blocking as much as you can, and come election time, people won't be remembering how YOU fucked up 4 years ago, but rather how your opponent is fucking up right now.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago (4 children)

    Bolsonaro didn't so people elected someone else. Lula (probably) didn't so people (probably would) elect someone else. In other words taking Lula out of power isn't some weird process but the same process that's been driving things. People tend to not keep in power someone who isn't improving their lives when their lives need improving.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    yes but in this case, it's back to Bolsonaro.. it would be like USians electing Don Jr in 2028 and pretending it's not just more child pedophilia (although now that I say it, I am certain USinans would be that stupid)

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  • [–] 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Kinda like how they went from Trump to Biden to Trump. Or like Bush Sr -> Clinton -> Bush Jr? Whatever people are, it's what they are and if we want (assuming fellow lefty) them to support something else, that doesn't happen by putting someone who doens't deliver measurable gains for them. People who do that get high approvals and get re-elected and propaganda has tough time countering that.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago* (1 child)

    Actually I think the Bush example is a bad one because I think that aspect of the 2016 election was memory-holed.

    Originally the media was pushing Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton, and Clinton herself was so fucksure that was going to be the match up she pushed her media contacts to focus on lunatics like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, trying to show people how crazy they were. She underestimated two things here.

    1. People being tired of both the Bushes and the Clintons. Trump came in as an outsider and shook things up, as no one was enthusiastic for Jeb "please clap" Bush. Clinton used the fact that she was essentially funding the entire DNC apparatus to put the finger on the scale because no one was really excited for her either, although she never had an equivalent "please clap" moment.

    2. How people saw politicians like Bush and Clinton as maneuvering and calculating and following the winds of popularity rather than facing difficult problems head on. As much as Clinton was right to peg Trump as a lunatic, she underestimated (I did and still do too, I don't get it) Trump's charisma. Her self assuredness that it would be her vs. Bush was a total misread of an era where people were sick of current politicians in general and any kind of outsider became appealing (the explosion of interest in Bernie Sanders is snother example in the same period).

    Anyway I think the push for Bush . Clinton alienated a lot of voters from both. I remember it was a common complaint I heard at the time from both people on the left and right.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago

    I think she also missed the fact that a lot of people wanted a lunatic. They were dissatisfied with "the system" and someone like Trump promised to blow the system up.

    Which he has, frankly. Not the ideal way to go about it but it was effective. They're also starting to learn how good the old system was for them, too late alas.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    The Lula admin's Bolsa Família giving R$600 to unemployed and retired people, a push for fully electrifying rural parts of Brasil that have lacked electricity, same with running water. This gave him a huge amount of support from northeast Brasil because it literally saved families from starvation having the extra money to buy food or cooking gas.

    Bolsonaro opposed all of this because of course he did.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    Well... not by much. I guess he did what he could, but his administration was hamstrung by a wildly right leaning legislature. By the way, even if some kind of miracle nets him his 4th term, he would have to deal with an even more extreme-right-leaning Congress.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

    Since nobody is answering you: no, nobody's lives got better. Economy is in stagflation, crime is is worse than it ever was, no relevant housing projects, no relevant infrastructure investment, education reform, etc. The tax reform will take a decade to come in effect.

    Oh but there were a ton of new taxes, including for small goods imported from overseas, which everybody used to buy constantly (shein, temu, etc). Made the post office (public company) lose several billions per year and only increased effective tax revenue by a few hundred million. So the government lost overall and the people lost. At the same time, a new head to the post office and several high paying jobs there were appointed from the government party.

    This kind of thing keeps happening so people just want something new and there are no other lefty candidates because Lula never shared power

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  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago (17 children)

    A lot of voters didn't bother voting in the first round, because they knew that it would come down to a second. Brazil has like 20 or so parties, and one has to get over 50% of the votes to win. Just gotta wait for the second round, no point in getting worked up about this one, everyone knew it was going to come down to these two.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (16 children)

    At the same time, the vast majority of the 8% who voted for someone other than these two in the first round voted for candidates more right-wing than Bolsonaro. Is there really no good way to remedy a January 6?

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago* (4 children)

    This is opposite to what I'm seeing.

    Here's the important chart:

    From this, the 1.87% difference can be overcome by any of the 3rd-4th-5th place parties. Since I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian politics, Wikipedia says Avante is center-left-leaning (voted for Lula previously), Missao is hard-right-wing, and SDP is confusing but appears to now be center-left-wing. So if we are now pushing their voters to polarized ends, the right- and left-wing runners-up cancel each other out, and the remaining party's votes could swing the election.

    The problem will be if the weaker-left two parties divide their votes between Lula and Flavio, and the hard-right Missao goes to Flavio 100-ish%, then Flavio still wins. Or some other problem a real Brazilian will point out since I'm just piecing this together from Wikipedia.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

    I’ve analyzed all of the candidates appearing in first-round results: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/28475259 My takeaway is 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish. If you search, you’ll also see most news outlets making the same predictions I am.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago

    That sounds correct, left votes are very centered around Lula.

    Which is also another major problem for the left in the future - he's 80 and there's absolutely no good successor to inherit those votes (partially his own fault too, he and his party never liked to share).

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago

    You're wrong. Curry is a self help author and clearly solidly on the right, Caiado is a carreer politician and on the right, only difference is that he's an oportunist

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    There is no candidate more to the right of Bolsonaro. He is the frothing-in-the-mouth, extreme-far-right candidate.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    The majority of those 8% intend to vote for Lula on the second round, where both Flavio and Lula are tied on the polls and neither is "poised to win".

    Also, international press is incompetent.

    Also also, WTF does "more right-wing" than alt-right means?

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

    The majority of those 8% intend to vote for Lula on the second round

    Source?

    both Flavio and Lula are tied on the polls

    the round-one polls had Lula leading Flávio by 3 points. the result was instead Flávio leading Lula by 2 points. That's a big miss.

    WTF does "more right-wing" than alt-right

    I'm not good at Brazillian politics either, but I'm going to research the entire makeup of the 8%:

    Round-one presidential results, all percentages excluding Flávio and Lula

    1. Cury's (2.86%) is the only one I'm not sure of. On one hand his party's ideology is moderate "Labourism", on the other hand:

    Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer ​on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Lula's Workers' Party out of office. "I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for ​him in the next few minutes," she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

    1. Renan Santos (2.24%), Missão: National liberalism, technocapitalism, bukelism, "The Feindstrafrecht says that certain people, as enemies of the society (or the state), do not deserve the protections of the civil or penal law." At least they support sustainability and infrastructure. Santos alleged a "wave" of neurotypical individuals falsely claiming to be autistic to obtain benefits and neurotypivestigated an actress.
    2. Ronaldo Caiado (2.18%): For some reason "Social Democra-" means economic neoliberalism in Brazil apparently. Party ideology mostly known for pragmatism: "We are neither a right-wing party nor a left-wing nor a centrist party." (?) Caiado is a right-winger known for criticizing Lula and leading opposition to land reform, seems to have similar campaign on crime as Flávio Bolsonaro.
    3. Romeu Zema (0.27%) in 2023 implied South and Southwest Brazil separatism to the great horror of everyone and Bolsonaro. In 2020, he said "We need to have tools that curb what we might call a natural instinct of human beings" to promote a support program for domestic violence survivors. In May argued for child labor (under 16).
    4. Samara Martins (0.10%) is left socialist.
    5. Hertz Dias (0.04%), Fourth International.
    6. Clariano Barão (0.03%), Christian Democracy party, paternalistic conservatism. Like the German CDU so I'll concede this isn't more right-wing.
    7. Edmilson Costa (0.02%), communist.
    8. Wilson Grassi (0.01%), single issue anti-abortion "Woman's Party" known for failing to meet state quota of women candidates in 2017.
    9. Rui Costa Pimenta (0.01%), of dissident Trotskyists party that praised Taliban and al-Qaeda for triumph "over American imperialism", opposes "gender ideology".

    Excluding Cury and Barão, I count 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish, or against 0.19% if we include Barão in the latter count, or against 3.05% even if we include Cury in the latter (which I quite doubt we can). If we add these numbers to the first-round results of Flávlo vs. Lula, Flávlo'd have a 6-point, 6-point, or 4-point lead.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Source?

    Any recent poll. You can search them here:

    https://www.planopolitico.com.br/agregador/presidente/

    Also, every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated. On basically every poll.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago*

    every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated

    I can't find that in the polls you linked. They seem to accord with what I said: They showed a 3-point Lula lead until 28 September, and the final averages have a 1.6-point Lula lead, while Flávio Bolsonaro in fact won by 2 points.

    I think it's reasonable to assume the round 2 polls also underestimate Flávio to a similar degree, as American (the continents') polls have done with alt-right candidates time and time again. I do not trust you saying this means the 8% will majorly vote for Lula when the evidence above points otherwise, and the media doesn't either.

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  • [–] -1 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    That french invention, that gravity assisted rail-mount blade system, is quite effective even as a deterrent

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (2 children)

    So you execute Jair, and Flávio does this, plus some other Bolsonarist executes Lula.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I was replying to the last question, i.e. "is there no way to remedy a Jan 6?".

    Traitors who want to upend democracy deserve no less.

    Supporters of the traitors then should either shut the fuck up or risk losing their heads as well.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Dear Brazil, why didn’t you learn from the USA’s mistakes?

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  • [–] 16 points 1 month ago

    And if you wanna know more about Flávio Bolsonaro, with whom he's hanging out, watch this, it's dubbed, but it's worth watching.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    Hopefully the people of Brazil can stand up and fight back against this sad situation. You are not alone in this BS we can and will overcome this.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    They should have hanged his dad.

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  • [–] 24 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

    Presidentialism is a dead-end strand of democracy. Progressives living in such systems everywhere should be pushing to reform it to parliamentarianism. No one election should have such cosmic level effects.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Absolutely not the case. Maybe where you are and in the so-called first world. Parlamentarianism would be a huge boon for the right in Brasil. Hell, things have progressively sucked since the 2016 coup cause the parliment has increased its powers a fuck ton

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago*

    My perspective is the European periphery (Greece) and Canada. I don't know in particular what the Brazilian parliament is doing. I suspect (feel free to correct me) that within a presidential system, where parliament can be weaponized against a personalist presidency, sure it can become a vehicle for irresponsible brinksmanship, just like in the US. But the moment a parliament becomes itself responsible for governing, when things cannot be blamed on some singular President, when governments can lose the confidence of the parliament and elections can be triggered things change and parliaments have to start taking shit seriously.

    That said, Parliamentarianism is not the perfect democratic system, it's just better than Presidentialism. It is also not a guarantee against fascism (cf Hungary, Italy), it is just harder to subvert them. It is no coincidence that democracies that slide to authoritarianism tend to reform themselves into presidential systems, like Turkey. And of course, the real question is what is even better than both, how do we perfect democracy beyond 19th century political technologies, but that's a different discussion.

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  • [–] 11 points 1 month ago (7 children)
  • [–] 11 points 1 month ago (6 children)

    Voting is mandatory in Brazil

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    What's the penalty if you don't?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    First two offenses: Small fine (~$1).

    Third offense (Usually, this penalty lasts 1 year):

    • Barred from getting or renewing a passport or ID.
    • Barred from taking public-sector jobs or positions.
    • Barred from taking out loans from public banks or enrolling in public universities.

    Fourth+ offense: Voting rights can be terminated, and the penalties above become permanent.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    Its insane because brazillians are so online and i know so many nice brazillians who im sure voted lula even if hes still corrupt and not a good candidate but much better than Bolsonaro. Its just insane to see this literal clown get elected.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago

    p5R436HowQmDhSQ.webp

    That's what Lula's voters think about this guy

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  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    Knows the machines

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  • [–] -1 points 1 month ago

    They are heading straight for environmental collapse and famine. I just hope neighboring countries will close all borders when it happens. Have what you voted for.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 month ago

    The "I love Bolsonaro" copypasta hits different when the Bolsonaro is kinda hot tho.

    It doesn't excuse his dogshit politics, but c'mon now... Daddy, quack quack.

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  • 5 comments in c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 31 points 1 month ago

    Yeeeeeah I'm thinking there might possibly be some chicanery here. Just like there will be in the USA. And Alberta.

    I'm tired of fucking billionaires and I'm tired of how cheaply people sell their honor.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Really? People voted for Bolsonaro?!?

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  • [–] 13 points 1 month ago*

    The younger one, not the one in jail. And yes, it's pretty common that if you don't fix every single issue in one election cycle, the entrenched ring wing takes control back to claim credit for the things you did improve.

    There was also tons of anti Lula propaganda flying around the last few years l believe.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    No wonder most people in politics are scum. No matter how decent, honest and for the people you are, they’ll just vote you out anyway.

    Purity tests so pure that even virgin olive oil would fail…

    “You did 500 things right but got one thing wrong so we are gonna vote for the leopards.”

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    [–] 7 points 1 month ago

    What a shitty period we are living in

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    That’s an oddly dramatic headline and subtitle for an election that went 47-45 with 8% still to decide who to vote for in the second round.

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