No shit you dumbfucks, prediction markets incentivize a fuck load of illegal shit and corruption and should be banned
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The fact that the US has turned literally everything into something you can gamble on really shows how much of a failure of a society the US truly is.
The social contract has been dead for 50 years and yet people younger than fifty still out there acting like nothings wrong, and all you need to do is "get a better job" and everything will be fine.
Man I'm not sure getting a better job is gonna help me escape climate change exacerbated wildfires, nor the gambling markets that incentivize arson.
Thanks for the insider info. Someone go put a bet on this guy not escaping climate change or arson gambling markets. /s
You speak as if prediction market gambling started in the US. That's as much bullshit as claiming it started in your country. Things like this have been going on for hundreds of years.
And before that 50 years ago, what was the social contract like for a black person, a woman, or a native?
Your rosie view of the past, like America was ever a good place, is telling.
Do you have any good takes or is your username meant to drip irony and that's the point?
Are you stupid on purpose or does it come naturally?
I'd say I mostly come by it naturally but sometimes it's the drugs which, I guess, means it's also on purpose. So both.
I still can't decide if you're an AI bot, a collection of users in a Russian (or other country) troll farm, or just a teenage / early 20s edgelord who's lost their way looking for 4chan.
Like, honestly, it's almost impressive how good you are at rage baiting folks. So far i'm going with your username being an intentionally ironic joke.
I know you don't. Just musing "out loud" for whoever is wasting their time reading these godforsaken comments.
I just hope your attitude and demeanor offline are better than what you put out on Lemmy otherwise you're gonna make life harder for yourself than it needs to be.
Where ever was there a good place?
A place without slavery, non consentual servitude, any and all injustuce, famine, or disease?
What is the standatd here?
This shit makes me particularly upset as the current Washington State fires were caused by an arsonist.
10,000 acres burning and only 13% contained.
I'm not even near the fires and I've been cooped up inside for days because the AQI is insanely bad all over the state.
Right? Now I'm wondering if it was for some bullshit gambling payout.
A man suspected of starting one of three catastrophic Spokane-area wildfires on Saturday is facing additional arson charges after allegedly admitting to starting 25 other fires around Riverside State Park since last July, according to a memorandum prosecutors filed Wednesday in Spokane County Superior Court.
By Wednesday, detectives had corroborated evidence indicating the man started at least four of the 25 fires he had described, prosecutors said in the memorandum.
The 37-year-old was arrested Monday at his West Spokane apartment, two days after prosecutors allege he sparked the Old Trails fire. He was booked into the Spokane County Jail on suspicion of first-degree arson, where he is being held on $1 million bond. The man is scheduled to be arraigned 3 p.m. Thursday in Spokane County Superior Court.
Maybe, maybe not. This guy has been starting fires for a while apparently and this is after he murdered his father over dishes.
Holy shit 25 fires? It's too bad it took this one to catch him. 1 million seems low for the sheer property value at risk alone, not counting everything else
You can bann prediction markets in general
Yeah no shit! What the fuck?!
Fuck every person that takes part in a bet like this. I'll put them in the same category as Trump voters. Scorched earth.
Just start a betting pool on if the kalshi or polymarket head offices get firebombed in the next 60 days, problem solved either way.
Probably people who live in deserts or otherwise have never seen a tree in their life.
People who live in deserts know three things, drought, fires and flash floods. Fires in the desert happen a lot. Probably way more than anywhere else.
Lemme rephrase a bit: people who bet on this sort of thing are probably ones who have only lived in a desert, never having seen a tree in the first place.
I'm sure there's plenty of fires in a hot place.
Insider trading in my insider trading platform???
We've had major wildfires started by part time firefighters looking to create some work for themselves. Wildfire gambling is pretty much guaranteed to turn all of our countryside into ash.
Why can't these people just go to casinos and lose everything on blackjack and roulette like normal gambling addicts?
It reminds me of a really great line from the movie Coming To America: "Imagine a country so free one can throw glass in its streets."
Donald has personal financial interests in prediction markets and his properties probably have private firefighting. What the fuck does he care?
And for the next two years he's going to have nothing to lose. We'll see if there's any America left once he's done.
But all the other forms of market manipulation are fine. Lol
Oh man, This is it. I lost the last remaining smidget of hope on humanity.
Can we bet on when/if Kalshi headquarters gets burned down?
I PRAY to GOD that Prediction Markets WRITE LEGISLATION to STOP People from putting a Viral Bet on if Billionaire Island in Florida will BURN DOWN! PLEASE just let us bet on OUR deaths NOT the Deaths of Rich People!
-Republican Voters!
Just stick to betting on wholesome things like if a kid’s gonna croak from cancer
I have a suggestion for the datacenter antifa that might get me banned if I explain it further.
edit: as in I support anti datacenter joke just to be clear.
Slightly off topics but this reminds me of this video making a case that forest fires are inevitable and the more often they happen the better https://youtu.be/HBluLfX2F_k?t=1448
I think we can all agree that arsonists should be tortured on live television
No, many of us aren't bloodthirsty psychopaths who hide behind "justice" to satisfy our cruel desires. Torturing criminals doesn't make me feel better or make the world safer.
Taking the other side here. Firebugs gotta hang, sorry bud
"justice"
The world is burning and these people make it go faster. Sweeping for them is sick and making public examples of the ones who are caught would absolutely scare arsonists into inaction.
But to you we should reward them by feeding and housing them for the rest of their lives.
Prison isn't a reward and harsh sentences are proven to not deter crime at all yet people still cling to barbarism.
No, prison is just a place where criminals can gain access to larger criminal networks and do even more crime.
That's a problem with the structure but still doesn't make it a reward. This focus on punishment is a big part of why the US has such a shitty recidivism rate.
This is our Great Filter.
You have people all over the world watching their homes burn down or get swept away by rainfall and some guy in LA thinks to himself "hey, I think I can make some profit here". Not just that, they will cause even more fires, more destruction and anguish and they know it. They just don't care. In a healthy system a person like that would be immediately excluded from society as someone sick and dangerous. In our system we don't have tools to do anything about it. The system will actually encourage millions of people to participate in this disgusting game, no one will face any consequences, the rich will get richer. The society as a whole is unable to deal with it. This is how it all will end.
To be clear, realizing that capitalism leads to catastrophe and abandoning capitalism is the great filter. (imo)
These so-called prediction matkets are just another symptom of capitalism gone off the rails.
Of course, that's what I mean by "the system". Capitalism evolved to shield bad people from responsibility. Thousands if not millions of people invested in Space X making Elon a trillionaire and they will never face any consequences for supporting a Nazi and his extremely harmful businesses. They are all hidden and protected by the system. If you want to protest any of it you have to do it in public and get ready for consequences. This imbalance was created on purpose. It's easier for people to be part of the system than to oppose it.
While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most,” he wrote.
Can anyone explain to me what the actual fuck this dude is talking about here?
They're trying to say that the guess of the "prediction market" will give early warning to evacuate.
It's been one of their "We're not gambling" defenses but applying it to wildfires really highlights how bonkers it is.
This is what I thought but I was hoping that was way too stupid to be real.
It’s libertarian shizzle about how you don’t need government services, like a forest service monitoring fire risk, if you have internet peoples betting on fire risk instead.
The libertarian lunacy is that because peoples money is in it, they will strive for the best judgement possible.
Crackdown until someone teaches them how to do it then it becomes essential to a capitalist society.
Just the wildfire ones? Not the entire idea? 🤨
Of course the entire thing is an insidious cancer, but allowing people to bet on catastrophes they can potentially bring about or intensify themselves is on another level of dangerous.
“There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter continues. “By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
How about a crackdown on politicians lining their pockets with insider trading?
Considering someone was arrested for arson connected to the 10,000 acre fires in Washington State today, yeah, let’s not incentivize such actions.
"don't build the torment nexus" is a meme that's repeated so often it's becoming a cliche, and yet
Ankh-Morpork no longer had a fire brigade. The citizens had a rather disturbingly direct way of thinking at times, and it did not take long for people to see the rather obvious flaw in paying a group of people by the number of fires they put out. The penny really dropped shortly after Charcoal Tuesday.
from a Terry Pratchett book published in 1997.
those who forget history are condemned to...something something.


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