Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

all 63 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] 46 points 3 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] [S] 13 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this... congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 27 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

  • source
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] [S] 18 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    there's opportunity in trading. but to assume you'll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you'll beat the casino. it's possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 5 child comments
  • [–] -2 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    ironic that you say you'll lose in the long term, given that investing long term in an index fund is one of the safest ways to invest.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] [S] 22 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    yeah, that's the whole point of the game. "trading" is the one that will not work in the long term. staying in the index fund is the good option.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Well you can game volatile stocks and you can buy and sell whenever you feel like it. Stuff like Tesla you know they're gonna swing down or swing up because shit's just so manipulated

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    The issue is everyone else thinks they can game it too, so price predictions are built into the cost, meaning you'll probably lose. There will be others who can trade faster and have more information who will beat you 99.99% of the time.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 15 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    The couch can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy

    Thanks!

  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I won. Does that mean I should start betting on stocks? Ok.

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 8 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I'm good, I should do this for real!

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Spamming the trade buttons seems to be a good strategy

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Wtf it's harder than I imagined

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    U r sure it's not "be at the couch"

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Fucking brilliant ! 👏👏

  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] [S] 2 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    glad you liked it mate! you won or what?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    I played maybe 15 games. I won one in 99th percentile and lost one in like 40th.

    You main visual is the market line, but I would make the main visual the competing lines of you vs couch, whether that’s bars or also graphed on the market. Otherwise, you’re sort of burying the mental image you want people to take away.

    There’s also times where the market went completely south, so I did nothing, and got the “enlightened” position.

    It’s a neat micro-game, but it comes off as preachy. Maybe that’s your intent, but being preachy can really turn people off. That maybe not your intent.

  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] [S] 7 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    the two lines are certainly harder/confusing to follow, i preferred the absolute numbers at the top. the preachy thing is certainly a choice, i do want to make a point with this. the whole thing is based on that tone of voice. i hear you, it'll turn some people off and i think i'm ok with it. appreciate the honest feedback.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago (3 children)

    I would like a slider mode. It's very hard to do any sensible strategy with an all or nothing approach. If market goes up by 30% I want to progressively sell and vice versa

  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] [S] 2 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    it's over two years so while not long term, it's not short either. lots of ups and downs. but i'm thinking of adding a career mode with 2x10 years, start with 10k, see where you end up kind of thing.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Interesting game. You could add crypto currencies for fun factor. Beating the couch in bitcoin trading could be an interesting challange

  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago (5 children)

    As far as I can tell it only used stock that "won". In that scenario, beating the couch is hard luck. But stock that ends up on 0, you could win more easily.

    In real life I live off of that, so a couch won't always win 😋

  • source
  • hideshow 5 child comments
  • [–] [S] 1 point 3 months ago (2 children)

    it uses S&P500 which isn't necessarily winning stocks. although it wins over the long term, lots of losing years are included here.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    Not my feedback: RSI indicator requested for the chart.

  • source
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago*

    Maybe add a volume chart to measure market activity, a candle stick chart to see the intra day OHLC and a moving average line chart. Just to see if people fare better compared to just an end of day line chart.

  • source
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    Love it, tyu.

  • source
  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago (7 children)

    Is your point here that holding assets over a long period of time always pays off more than selling high and buying low?

    There is really no strategy to this, I just waited it out and the highest point was at the end, as was to be expected, never mind compounded interest over recurring investments or portfolio diversification.

    Also I don't understand why the other player is a couch?

  • source
  • hideshow 7 child comments
  • [–] [S] 10 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    at the core it, it's a fun little game and not much more a lot of people do "chart reading" to predict the market and this kind of pokes fun at that

    the idea is trying to time the market (whether buying or selling) is very hard and the s&p500 usually wins over the mid-to-long run

    and the other playing a couch is just to show how little of an effort it takes to make more money than trading - an inanimate object in an index fund can outperform you.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    I think you should spend a few more sentences selling the couch to players: "It doesn't buy. It doesn't sell. It just holds on to the stocks it already has."

    Or something like that.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments