Thank you. Semiconductor technology has been due for a big technological innovation for a while now, and not just for economic diversification.

The current economic situation is indicative of that. If there had already been more competition across the globe creating external pressure, maybe we'd have more breakthroughs and we wouldn't be seeing such a strong economic and technological bottleneck

I wouldn't risk it. The AI market is full of SpaceX like companies, massively overvalued despite literally never making a profit and having no coherent business plan beyond crossing their fingers and hoping they create AGI.

It takes 5 or 6 years minimum to step up a fab, the AI market is so unstable it could be gone by next week. If you want to cash in on this particular gold rush you need to already own the pickaxes.

AI companies gonna crash, and then memory manufacturers will be left with 50% oversupply no one wants to buy. So they don't build new factories yet.

Nah, they did that in the past, then demand suddenly went back to normal. That's why my 64 GB DDR5 RAM was 200€ last year.

They are scared shitless to expand, because if they do and the AI bubble bursts they won't make their money back. So they obviously prefer to constrain the supply, rake in massive profits and just wait it out.

People keep acting like this is unprecedented, and maybe it hasn’t specifically happened this way before, but boom/bust seems to happen every few years.

To hear my dad and other older folks talk, though, it sounds like things were really good in the ’90s and they haven’t seen commission checks like that since.

What is this from?

Doesn't Trump want to essentially nullify the CHIPS Act because he thinks transistors are trans or something?

Not even joking.

As for US, I think it’s partially political, partially practical. Close to data centers is practical. As for political, there’s fears about the collapse of Intel and the invasion of Taiwan, as well as Trump wanting to strut. As for EU, there have been no incentives or advantageous policies for existing producers, so it’s not even considered interesting or viable rn