I think you are overselling it's incorrectness and so horseshoeing back around to being like the people who oversell it's truthfulness.

I am not.

Do you have direct evidence or an argument for why the tragedy of the commons isn't the most likely outcome if the circumstances just so happen to match the assumptions Hardin made?

Here you go

https://boingboing.net/2019/03/07/scientific-fraud.html

Even before Hardin’s ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’ was published, however, the young political scientist Elinor Ostrom had proven him wrong. While Hardin speculated that the tragedy of the commons could be avoided only through total privatisation or total government control, Ostrom had witnessed groundwater users near her native Los Angeles hammer out a system for sharing their coveted resource. Over the next several decades, as a professor at Indiana University Bloomington, she studied collaborative management systems developed by cattle herders in Switzerland, forest dwellers in Japan, and irrigators in the Philippines. These communities had found ways of both preserving a shared resource – pasture, trees, water – and providing their members with a living. Some had been deftly avoiding the tragedy of the commons for centuries; Ostrom was simply one of the first scientists to pay close attention to their traditions, and analyse how and why they worked.

The features of successful systems, Ostrom and her colleagues found, include clear boundaries (the ‘community’ doing the managing must be well-defined); reliable monitoring of the shared resource; a reasonable balance of costs and benefits for participants; a predictable process for the fast and fair resolution of conflicts; an escalating series of punishments for cheaters; and good relationships between the community and other layers of authority, from household heads to international institutions.

https://aeon.co/essays/the-tragedy-of-the-commons-is-a-false-and-dangerous-myth

https://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/voices/the-tragedy-of-the-tragedy-of-the-commons/

https://news.osu.edu/the-tragedy-of-the-commons--minus-the-tragedy/

https://news.cnrs.fr/opinions/debunking-the-tragedy-of-the-commons

https://landscapewanderer.link/tragedy/

https://discardstudies.com/2019/07/15/the-tragedy-of-the-tragedy-of-the-commons/

https://jacobin.com/2023/10/tragedy-of-the-commons-garrett-hardin-white-supremacy-enclosure-privatization-history