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[–] 109 points 5 months ago (22 children)

Interesting. I thought companies usually waited until they at least had a good product or cashflow before going for enshittification.

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  • [–] 117 points 5 months ago (8 children)

    It is odd that the 3 big players are trying to rush to IPO... probably to dump their shit and cash out before the bag holders have time to sell... I've got a feeling they know it's going to crash soon.

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  • [–] 7 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    And there is a waiting time after the IPO before cashing out is possible, half a year or so. Critics with some knowledge expected the bubble to pop somewhere in 2027, so with the half year waiting period they have to make their move soon or they'll sell on the downslope.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    They have a lot less runway to enshittify than everything else we've seen recently. Because AI is way more expensive than anything else we've gotten for "free". Which means they're already on borrowed time.

    Hopefully they get it over with sooner rather than later. The longer it takes, the more my retirement savings gets fucked.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (2 children)

    Did the rule that allows 401k to be invested in stocks like this shit get passed? Cause that's going to fuck so many peoples retirement (mine included). And when these companies pop, we're going to be holding the bag.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (1 child)

    The mutual funds in a typical 401k are just a bunch of stocks like this, wrapped up in a value meal package.

    If you have a 401k, you probably already own stock in Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, etc...

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  • [–] 42 points 5 months ago* (4 children)

    Got to cash out their shares using your pension fund before they go bankrupt.

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  • [–] 18 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Is there any way to get my 401k to not invest in this shit?
    I don't want my entire retirement to go up in smoke... Again. There isn't even that much of it 😭

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  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 child)

    Real answer:

    Depends on who manages your 401k. Some servicers do allow 'custom' or otherwise 'alternative' management options, with some allowing you to focus on specific companies or industries.

    Others might take your call at least and if you raise enough of a stink you might get shoved into an alternative plan out of spite, but that's what you want, so you win.

    Joke AnswerTake out all your money, pay off the fee, use the money to buy a used Komatsu D355A crawler tractor and at least a half pallet each of of concrete bags and rebar as well as an extra diesel tank and a decent amount of diesel. Then just find your local senator's personal home and

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  • [–] 26 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    You forgot about option 3: VC money ran out

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago*

    we will know things have gotten worst, when conferences suddenly stop hositng AI startups events/ideas all the time. conferences near where i work is soley only doing AI related events nothing else. adjacent industry will likely suffer to like catering food to Ai companies.

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  • [–] 9 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Thing is, they tried to show that public adoption was large enough to warrant a $100B+ value, that basically everyone wanted AI. That was the difference between a $20B valuation and 100+. But several failures have occurred the last few months that hints at the public at large not wanting to adopt their tech in such quantities and the longer they wait the worse a signal it might send for the IPO. Lack of adoption, lack of progress towards AGI, dwindling returns, ballooning costs.

    I estimate that the AI bubble will burst pre-IPO or during the IPO, thus not affecting the public at large. There's still a risk that they fudge the IPO numbers hard enough to create FOMO and people wanting to buy but they'd have to go dangerously close to fraud territory to make a good case. Just watch out for the first AI IPOs. There's likely a smaller AI company that'll go first that'll be a canary in the coal mine. If their IPO succeeds the big boys will make an attempt but if it fails they'll likely postpone an IPO indefinitely, making it a long, dragged out market correction, not a quick pop.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    Already happened with Cerebras and they landed at a stable 2x of the open. SpaceX is probably going to be next & set the real standard

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 child)

    Cerebras makes really interesting hardware though. The engineering, even just the packaging and cooling and power delivery, is utterly insane.

    I have a server teardown saved that was so cool, they took it down from YouTube (for revealing too much I think).

    I hope they survive the bubble so their stuff can be used for oldschool small-model ML, which is what their stuff is actually good at.

    …And no one else is like that, except maybe Huawei. All the other “AI” ASICs are junk, nothingburgers, vaporware, or straight up pyramid schemes.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago

    They're quite likely to survive, even in a worst case scenario. AI isn't going away and we still need hardware to run it. And in a worst case scenario they still have an inventory that keeps a certain value. For a pure AI company like OpenAI or Anthropic, in a worst case scenario their $100B could be worth 0 the next day. There's no inventory to sell out like they could in the housing crisis in 2008 or with internet infrastructure during dotcom.

    Those who sell shovels during a gold rush are generally safe. They might be overvalued during the bubble, but the shovels aren't going away. IMO from the little info I have on Cerebras it looks like they're even better positioned since their hardware is uniquely solving AI efficiency. During a market correction people start caring very much about efficiency and is almost entirely allergic to anything that smells of hype. If they need AI hardware they want the efficient ones.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago*

    they enshittified first before actually putting out a "product", also with so many AI ceos suddenly coming out trying to peddle some form of the "innovation, it got anthropoic nervous. Thiel, Karp, ALTMAN,google, MS,,,etc did it all the same time.

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  • [–] 48 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (8 children)

    how can you file confidentially for a public offering?

    that's like throwing a public party where you are expecting to make money off the cover charge but not telling anyone about it

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  • [–] 31 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    Poor wording. The content of the filing is confidential, not the act of filing.

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  • [–] 7 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    But don’t the public investors need that info to decide? Like a prospectus?

    I don’t know that much about IPOs. I’m just assuming.

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  • [+] 40 points 5 months ago (8 children)
  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    Wait how can they make it worse?

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago

    Well, they were one of the best of the turds. I was kind of hoping they'd stick around and be a mitigating force on the AI market that at least taps the brakes on all the bullshit. Seems unlikely now.

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  • [–] 22 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    I worked for a company once that went IPO and we had stock units assigned to us.

    CEO: Companies try to stay private for as long as they can, they don't just IPO for the hell of it. They're trying to solve a problem with money. Maybe they owe people money, maybe they need to spend a bunch of money to take the company to the next level. An IPO doesn't fix any problems; rather, it turns one set of problems into a bigger, harder set of problems.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Founders try to cash in. They've raised the cow, now's the time to send it to the butcher for parts

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    You don't have to IPO to cash out, people cash out of private ventures all the time.

    If the founders all want to cash out at once, or there's a iceberg that the see, or the company isn't as liquid as it needs to be to cash out....

    I strongly suspect they either can't find or sustain the profit, or they think the bubble is close enough to get out early.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    IPO brings a lot of money though, much more than seed money.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago

    It brings tons of money, but also a microscope and public disclosure. You lose a LOAD of control over the company and get to be inspected by lots of entities. And if you have a badish quarter, you're held directly accountable by the public.

    They usually don't want all that if the company is doing fine.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    i cant wait until the bubble bursts and every single ai company collapses

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  • [–] 11 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    I can. They're propping up the whole stock market at this point. Pretty much the definition of "too big to fail." So when they inevitably fail, Congress is going to give them our tax dollars.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago

    People are delusional in believing this will actually happen and it just makes everyone passive and have inverse effect we want for just and fair society. So maybe stop waiting and start doing.

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  • [–] 15 points 5 months ago*

    A company worth 4 billion has produced 5 billionaire..its all a crock. Apologies, thought we were talking of Palantir.

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  • [–] 30 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    Does the US Stock Market even mean anything anymore? It's been screwed and manipulated by so many people it's mostly a dead corpse that holds no real value for society anymore. Just a broken money tool of the rich.

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  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Time to short the fuck out of them, I guess.

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  • [–] 11 points 5 months ago (7 children)

    Why do all these headlines say that a company "confidently" files for an IPO? I'm assuming it's just AI, but man is that tired and confusing.

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  • [–] 26 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    Confidentially. I read confidently at first too.

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  • [–] 12 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    So they confidentially go public. Makes sense lol

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago*

    It does, actually. From the article:

    Anthropic’s confidential filing will give regulators a period to look over the company’s financial disclosures before the AI firm’s investor prospectus becomes public. Filing confidentially has become common for major firms, with SpaceX approaching its IPO in the same manner. […] “This gives us the option to go public after the SEC completes its review. The proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors,” Anthropic said.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 0 points 5 months ago

    From my limited understanding this info will eventually become public as you imply but Anthropic must feel keeping this info private for now is in their benefit.

    I fully suspect it would hurt their image and IPO and that’s why they are hiding it for now. To get as large of IPO as possible.

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago* (4 children)

    As the Bloodhound Gang said: Lift your head up high, and blow your brains out.

    *Whoops, that's confidentially, not confidently. Still.

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Life is short and hard, like a body-building elf

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  • [–] 13 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    I really hope that some of these big players in the AI market will stay private. There are already enough headwinds to them being a force of good in the world without having to report to shareholders of the lowest denominator.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago

    I assume they are all running for the public exit because they are losing money faster than they can raise it and don't have any reliable business models to which they can transition in the near term. If they can't become profitable, the next best thing is to go public while the hype is hot and to cash out ASAP.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    You mean you don't want every AI company to be driven by shareholder interests?

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (1 child)

    There was an interesting podcast recently from freakonomics about Epic software and how it’s always been private. It reinforced my perception that companies do better for humanity when they stay private.

    Most C corps have the same tragedy of the masses problem that we face with pollution and resource scarcity. Not to mention that the average anything is mediocre. So, in a word, yes.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    Market manipulation it is then. Let's go lads! I will be dancing over their grave once they go bankrupt.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    Hmmm, well that can only go really bad or really good for investors, I would think. No middle ground here. It just depends on what the mob does.

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  • [–] -1 points 5 months ago

    I predict it will be a very good buy. Anthropic is one of the leading AI companies.

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