If you look at OS on steam its about 3%, but filtered for English, its 7% in that market.

Its kinda on its way there already in some markets.

Yes. It's already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years. There are several major external factors at play: Valve helping to push gaming on Linux, the continued and increasingly big enshittification of Windows, and the current deranged US regime (resulting in less trust and less users of US-company-produced proprietary operating systems). Remember that Linux or the open source BSD variants are the only (usable/practical) operating systems you can use if you want to achieve digital sovereignty. Plus, it's also getting even better over time by itself of course (that's the internal factor).

Twenty years ago, we were speculating whether open source browsers would survive or catch on.

Now there aren't any closed source browsers left.

Vendors will find other forms of lock in, anyway, of course.

Going with a definite maybe 🤔

For the education sector and software developer sector these numbers are already met and well exceeded. For the consumer desktop, yes, I think so. I think some big company other than Valve and Google will sell a Linux desktop machine, be it x86 or ARM. When most of the stuff consumers use is through the browser, OEMs clinging to Windows is not going to last forever.

Yes. Not because Linux PCs become so much more common, but because Windows PCs become much less common.

More and more people (normies) don't own a desktop and only use tablets or phones. As the percentage of normies who own a desktop decreases, it will become more of just a nerd thing to have an actual desktop PC ... and those kinds of people are much more likely to run Linux.

The fact that I'm having more and more discussions with non tech people about what even Linux is, that they heard of GrapheneOS or /e/OS, makes me thing that yes, it's possible.

What also makes it potentially possible is that Microsoft is doing like NVIDIA alienating gamers. They are "just" gigantic corporations which only go where there is more money. There is no ideology except capturing whatever drives profit up for the next quarter. They currently see AI data center as they place to earn more so they are giving up on the rest.

To my mind, Linux used to be a niche alternative to Windows, but it's grown a lot and I forsee it becoming the default alternative to MacOS. I think Windows is done as a platform in the short-medium term.

I personally feel pretty confident we're gonna hit 10% in the coming years. 20% could be doable but i feel like it might take a lot longer to get there. But depending on how badly microslop keeps fucking up, who knows lol.

I think it's coming sooner than a lot of people think.

We may even hit it within a year or so if we count the Steam machine and how that launch goes

Less and less people even have a home desktop these days. It's basically gamers, programmers/IT/etc. types, and old people who refuse to learn how to use a smartphone.

A decent amount of those techy types are either already using Linux, or at least have some familiarity with it from working on servers and such, and it's only a matter of time before a lot of them switch out of frustration with Microsoft's enshitification

Gamers are already moving in pretty great numbers, valve has made it so that most games can now run fine on Linux which kept a lot of people from switching previously, and the steam deck has made a lot of people curious about it. And there's a lot of people who have perfectly serviceable rigs that they can't "upgrade" to windows 11 now that they won't be getting regular security updates for 10, and with the price of RAM now, they may not want to invest in hardware upgrades and may turn to Linux to at least squeeze a couple more years out of their system.

And as far as the old luddites go, most of them could probably use Linux just fine. They're not doing anything besides browsing the web checking their email, and using basic office programs anyway.

I recently switched my parents over to Linux Mint because their computer was just too bogged down with windows 11 bullshit and everything was going at a crawl. They've been on it for about a month now and it's been smooth-sailing.

And I think as more of us gamers and tech nerds get more familiar and comfortable with Linux, more people are going to do the same thing. For those of us who have made the switch ourselves and play tech support for our parents and grandparents, the next time they call you up to come take a look at their computer, bring a Linux flash drive and boot that up for them. Tell them to play around with it a bit to see if they can live with it (I left my flash drive plugged into their computer for about a week for them to play around with it before I installed it for them) show them that libre office is basically the same as Microsoft office, install whatever web browser they're used to, make sure their printer is working, etc.

And eventually, maybe they'll even tell their old people friends about it. I can definitely see one of my mom's friends complaining about how slow their computer is, and my mom saying "well my son put this Linux stuff on our computer, and it sped everything right up" and then boom you got old people getting curious about it too.

Yeah, but it’s not obvious right now how. But Linux has good bones, comparatively, no reason it wouldn’t other than existing giants having a lot of incentive to maintain their hold on the market.

But should that ever change, one reason or another, Linux seems like the lowest friction alternative. It already exists and is robust.

Personally I think it’s almost inevitable, too, just not obvious right now how it’d happen.

I think that with enough community effort, it could.

Some of what I think is missing is just community documentation (manuals, tutorials, troubleshooting pages) that are easy to find and recent. While yes, solutions from 5 to 10 years ago still work, they often don't reflect the full recent reality, never mind the tendency for CLI solutions (which are great, but plenty of people are intimidated by the CLI).

The other thing that I think is missing is polish around things that are just off the beaten path... the kinds of things that not everyone will do, but that most will do at least one of.

Yes, I think it's realistic if we look at how things in computing have changed even just within the last few decades.

https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, IE was at ~65%, Chrome at <2%, we've gone from that to "IE does not exist" and Chrome in the same spot IE was then

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, Windows was at ~94%, now it is at ~26% with Android having taken the top spot, even that is just at ~37%, so there is now no dominant operating system overall

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide#monthly-200901-202603 even disregarding mobile devices, Windows has fallen from ~95% to ~61% in that time frame

and maybe I'm just old but early 2009 doesn't seem an enormously long time ago somehow

Only because the desktop market will shrink.

I think most people's computing will go to phones, tablets, or phone/tablet-like devices (like Chromebooks or the Macbook Neo) that don't really count as desktops. I think the PC hardware market will shrink.

What's left will be PC enthusiasts and gamers clinging to their existing hardware, and TBH I can see 15% of those moving to some linux flavor as Microsoft basically sunsets desktop Windows.

Business workstations will be stuck with Windows forever, though.

Why not? Windows is an utter shit. Migrating masses isn’t that complicated as it seems. I forced a friend to install Fedora, basically refusing to help him with Windows. I wasn’t even lying to him, I have no idea how to deal with Windows, haven’t used it for like fifteen years or more. He did a lot of unnecessary things, like selling his laptop, buying a new one, selling it, buying another one, facing some similar issues. I kept telling him ‘just fucking just Fedora and see if it’ll work better with your issue’ (he had some weird sleep issues). Turned out Fedora was flawless for him. And his favourite game — Dota 2 — works even better.

Now, he said he would probably just use Linux, if he’d manage to understand some basics. I think he will. He’s not in tech, a handyman, or like that. He can do basic computer stuff, but no more than that. He says it’s like operating a tablet. (I suggested him Atomic Fedora Silverblue.)

I can see Apple getting huge market share, thanks to its new MacBook Neo. Linux is similar, as I keep telling people that it’s very similar to macOS, but cheaper. That very friend said he’d probably buy a Neo to himself, as he doesn’t need more compute power for his needs. But I don’t see him buying anything more powerful than Mac mini. I keep selling him Linux, telling that for his needs (basically light browsing and very light Steam gaming), any similar mini computer with Fedora is plenty.

I see him proposing Linux to his close ones. At least his close circle of computer illiterate people, like mom, wife, brother, and so on. So, one relatively skilled person can help convert many others. He’s capable of installing (but not maintaining) Linux, but if it’s good enough out of the box, he can install it for others too. When he needs help, I happily help him. A GPT makes it trivial for me to combine a quick simple tutorial for him. He could ask a GPT himself, but it’s not as safe as with me, since I understand very well whether the bot is hallucinating or not. So, me alone, I can help migrate many people. Me, I migrated from macOS, I think that adds to the story either.

Might be a dumb q but how can it have a market share when it's free

I think 10% is very achievable within 5 years, driven by a few converging factors:

1. Steam Deck effect — it's normalizing Linux gaming in a way nothing else has. People who game on Deck start wondering "why not on my desktop too?"
2. Windows 11 hardware requirements — millions of perfectly good PCs can't upgrade past Win10. When support ends, Linux is the obvious path for those machines
3. Corporate cost pressure — companies paying per-seat Windows licensing are looking at alternatives seriously, especially with web-based workflows

The biggest remaining barrier isn't technical — it's the ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, MS Office dependencies). But even that's eroding with web apps replacing native ones.

Ever is an extremely long time.

Yes I do, it seems to me Linux is beginning to grow a bit faster than it used to.
Desktop use is of course declining, so it will be a larger share of a smaller market.
But enthusiasts have seen Linux as the better options for decades now, and gamers are coming over too, and use cases that require optimal security, and even some workstation tasks are done better on Linux because Linux has a superior kernel for multi threading.

But it will take some time, probably at least 10 years.

Yeah its feasible. Linux mint is doing gods work in making linux accessible for personal use. the biggest hurdle is workspace use, so much poorly supported software barely works on windows, and was never designed for linux in the first place.

maybe it already does... https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/

I think the thing that will really push it into this kind of territory is if a company sells their desktop PCs with Linux already installed.

Similar to how Steam used Linux for the Steam Deck and how that allowed far, far more people to experience Linux.

Similar to how Linux (Android) has a huge market share on phones - because it came pre-installed!

Like most normal people, outside of tech probably haven't even heard of Linux. Some people arent even aware there are more options other than Windows.

So yeah, I think the more that big companies start selling their products with Linux pre-installed, the closer we get to 20%!

(Side note I think Linux might be closer to 10% already, although theres no real way to tell. Most estimates we have are massive underestimates since most people simply turn off telemetry on their Linux installs where possible, we Linux users are not usually the type to allow our data to be harvested so easily lol)

Yes. Linux plays the long game instead of seeking short-term profits. Linux isn't even an OS per se, neither is a unified product from one company, and that exactly why I think it will outlast the proprietary products because it's adaptable, resilient to changes. the only challenge linux faces is hardware getting locked down...

why stop there? i see it reaching 100%

The only reference people have for these kind of judgements is polling by browser.

You're talking about users of a specific OS who would spend time to not make that known. They would also opt-out if any reporting about there machine specifics for polls, should they be asked.

I can guarantee real world usage is always higher than these polls suggest. I don't know about 10%, but they are higher in actuality.

SOs HP laptop borked Win11pro OS, wouldn't load or recover. Tried reinstalling clean but Win11 installer can't see SSD. Driver loading during install results in install crashing error.

Linux, here we come.

Yes.

Probably only as Desktop space becomes irrelevant.

I think we might see a sharp decline in desktops in favor of lockdown devices (that run Linux under the hood but don't give you much access), which means the % of desktops that are Linux based will surge.

If vr and ar are optimized for Linux then definitely. But tech illiteracy will keep windows around

Yes

With Windows 12 rumoured to be a subscription model, yes definitely. Enterprise will buy up the subscriptions, home users will look elsewhere. Apple will take its share of course, their products are too pricey for a lot of people though. Linux is the only real option for folks who value owning their data.

converging evolutions. all of this AI bullshit is like the phase of fish developing legs and trying to get onto land and Linux is like the crabs

I converted two of my friends so I’m doing my part! Just think if everyone gets two people they know to switch well be there in no time.

I would assume there is going to eventually be an even split: what is not MacOS, which has different dynamics, is going to be Linux variants at home, and Windows in corporate settings. Linux will continue to dominate the server and device markets.

My assumptions are based on flows of money. There is just not a lot of money for Microsoft in OS development for home computers at a time when they are making their money mostly with subscriptions they can easily move online.

My bet is that Linux will get 10% Steam market share by the end of this year, at most.

definately. I see anyone who does not go to linux as using something like smartphones or other simpler things and linux being the only game in town for people who use a real workstation. Im not sure windows can survive in the long term in both desktops and the server and I expect apple to basically abandon the desktop thing eventually.

I kind of expect it. Not because of to much grows on the Linux side more because a lot of the desktop use cases are slowly dying and I think this will hit Windows harder than Linux based systems.

If it hits that It'll go much higher very quickly, linuxes problems are literally all related to marketshare or need a few more years of ironing out the wayland transition... which by then will likely be done.

With a combination of Microslop pushing users a way, and fewer people even having laptops/PCs in favor of just using their phones, I see that 10% happening pretty easily. Its always going to be the business users propping up Windows numbers.

yeah, why not?

I dont think the free linux desktop for everyone that we all dream about will ever come to fruition. Even if everyone moves away from windows some other corporation will find a way to attract everyone to there platform.

I think we will...but I dont think it will be called Linux.

It will be like Android I think. Something that has Linux inside but comes with some device.

Probably, but it would be a lot easier if the Linux community coalesces around one main distro. If that happens, they could challenge Microsoft. Otherwise, probably not.

First you have to define what is Linux (does ChromeOS count? How about Android? Alpine? What makes something "Linux"), and what is a desktop (do laptops count? How about portable handhelds/phones with a desktop mode?).