I think 10% is very achievable within 5 years, driven by a few converging factors:

1. Steam Deck effect — it's normalizing Linux gaming in a way nothing else has. People who game on Deck start wondering "why not on my desktop too?"
2. Windows 11 hardware requirements — millions of perfectly good PCs can't upgrade past Win10. When support ends, Linux is the obvious path for those machines
3. Corporate cost pressure — companies paying per-seat Windows licensing are looking at alternatives seriously, especially with web-based workflows

The biggest remaining barrier isn't technical — it's the ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, MS Office dependencies). But even that's eroding with web apps replacing native ones.