I don't think the 5863 is limited to games released in 2025

100k is not enough to pay even a single full time dev, so I wouldn't call this the success threshold.

Only making 100k for a small indie dev's first game is great.

Only making 100k for a AAA Electronic Arts or Ubisoft game would be fucking hilarious.

So 113k released between 2016 and 2025 is about 12600 a year. We have only been told that 5863 games made more than 100k last year, not what their total lifetime revenues are. Bearing in mind games generally make the most money in the first year of release (of course there there is big variation and there is a tail but mostly), then very crudely as much as 46% of new games could be making at least 100K in the first year. That's an overestimate for many reasons but 5% is also a huge underestimate as the figure is using at all games released across 9 years and diluting the the 1 year figure we have. Also we need to bare in mind how much of the Steam library is slop and not an actual fully formed game, or is place holder entries for things like demos and even DLC.

The real figure will sit between those two extreme limits, it's not going to be as low as 5% but also not as high as 46%.