For the back half of the 20th century (what Fortune founder Henry Luce called “The American Century”), MBA and law degree programs were a ticket to a great office job and a path to the American Dream. The 21st century is asking the question: What happens when all those office jobs get automated?....

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[–] 80 points 8 months ago (1 child)

Just another trillion dollars guys! Just another year and a half! I swear!

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  • [–] 43 points 8 months ago

    Remember 18 months ago when all programmers and software engineers were going to be replaced.... Still waiting.....

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  • [–] 36 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    He has just given himself an eighteen month deadline to succeed or lose his own job. At least, that’s how I’d interpret it if I was in a position to fire his ass.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I would just fire him now for being obviously incompetent. How can someone competent make such an unrealistic prediction?

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    If you work for a large enough organisation it's almost impossible to get fired. Microsoft like most organisations almost certainly operate on the PIN system, or something equivalent.

    Basically to get fired you have to get yelled at by your manager, then have a documented yelling at from HR, then get another documented yelling at from HR, then get put on report, then fail to improve, and then you're fired. Each stage has like a 2-month cooldown before the next step.

    Start to finish the whole process can take over a year. Most people quit out of boredom before it gets that far. If you are not literally the most incompetent employee in the department you're probably safe.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Actually, I'd interpret it as him losing his job in 18 months regardless of whether he succeeds or fails, since management is a white-collar job.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago*

    Oh it's like fusion. AGI in 18 months, and in 18 months it'll be another 18 months, and in another 18 months it'll be yet another 18 months, and in 50 years it'll be in 18 months.

    By some of the original estimates we're supposed to all be dead due to a nuclear war genetically engineered virus released by an AI by now. But nope, were all still here, the lying bastards.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago

    So 18 months still before the bubble bursts?

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Blowing their load already I see. AI can't even automate individual tasks I do, it's not going to do shit to my job in 2 years

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago

    Uh huh. Sure. I give it 18 months before AI is a footnote.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago

    Oh cool so that means Star Citizen will be finished by then, right? AI should be able to build an even better version from scratch in a few hours, surely

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago

    Maybe he is just trying to keep his job for another 18 months to get a huge payday.

    AI has failed to effectively replace a single profession so far, and I do not see it fully replacing it in that timeframe.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago

    so thats when the bubble will pop.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago* (8 children)

    I mean, the idea that all white-collar jobs could be automated is obviously stupid. But even if just 50% could be made redundant by increased productivity, or 20%, that would generate enormous downward pressure on wages and salaries and turn this kind of job into college-degree burger flipping, economically.

    The world went through the very similar blue-collar job destruction in the 80s and 90s. Back then, Conservatives decided this was all a Very Good Thing, and Neoliberals shrugged. The made vast swaths of industrial areas suddenly derelict and impoverished. It's hard to believe that Detroit was once one of the wealthiest cities in America.

    We must tax companies that use AI to reduce workforce to offset cost benefits. Society will have to deal with the suddenly impoverished accountants and lawyers and needs extra revenue.

    The worst part of this AI revolution is that it affects most directly those that have the least experience, as it's easier to replace an entrant with software. Yet another way young people are screwed, yet another way society absolutely needs to step in to make sure the next generation has a fighting chance.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    It sounds like your problem is with capitalism and not AI and automation. You don't like the extra productivity going towards private institutions rather than the workers they displaced or society as a whole, right?

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Even with capitalism there is distributivism and there is "neoliberal" capitalism and there is mercantilism and oligopolism. The former two don't become worse or better from automation. More likely better. The latter two become worse because everything new is power-guarded from benefiting anyone other than elites having power.

    It's the old question that was being explored in science fiction even before computers. It just took hundred years to reach the problem itself.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (2 children)

    it would likely generate no-college graduates. even now some schools have enrollment issues, due to job prospects of already graduates telling thier friends/family entering college how bad it is.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (1 child)

    I can't even begin to imagine what it must feel like to start college, to take on tens of thousands of dollars of debt, and not to have the faintest idea if there is actually going to be a job at the end of all that work. At least, where I live college is almost free.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    if you looked at the reviews on yelp(yes i visit that, it was insightful to say the least of past students) in schools around you, or the one you graduated definitely not a good sign, at least for state school in the west. they got so desperate that they are reaching out to HS students not even close to graduating, and if they complete certain courses, they are guaranteed acceptance, when before it was the standard 3.0+ gpa and sat scores.(only some state schools, UC and Uni arnt affected that i know of).

    back '12 now i know why a student i know at the time wanted to transfer out of the state school asap.

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

    And now it's $80 an hour or more to hire a plumber. This is a bad deal no matter how you slice it.

    And the commenter above is correct. If AI could do these jobs, so could cheap labor overseas. So the $80 an hour plumber is much more likely than the outsourcing that resulted in the destruction of Detroit as a manufacturing hub.

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    Or else Microsoft will fold?

    That'd be nice

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    In 18 months I can see us where the Star Wars universe portrayed droids. As in 'Oh great, another talking tin can, just what the galaxy needs. Can someone turn this thing off?'

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    With the things trending the way they are it will be more expensive than one by then too.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    tell him to automate these nuts

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago

    lol. Lmao, even

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I can't imagine saying anything so wildly ignorant in my professional career. He should be fired for publicly saying something that makes Microsoft sound like they have no idea what is going on in the real world.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago
    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    He's lying.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    "You first."

    Anyone who actually thinks this must not actually do a whole lot and probably could be automated really easily, AI or not.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Can someone make a crying bro meme? Surely fits this (I have 0 meme skills. Just like my social skills)

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Bigfoot, Bermuda Triangle, AI taking over jobs.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Put it on polymarket or something, I want to make some money off of such stupidity.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. That's never been more true than now. I think the US bailing out the rich in the last two recessions have perverted the normal risk reward calculations.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    JFC jobs aren’t getting automated they are getting enhanced.

    Work will shift it’s not going away.

    This hyperbolic c suite AI nonsense is pure pump and dump.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    I wouldn't even strictly say it's being enhanced. My employer cut 5% under the pretext of AI efficiencies. Those efficiencies being forcing adjacent teams to absorb the responsibilities of the laid off teams and then pointing us to leverage "AI" to overcome the increased workload.

    End result is unqualified and overworked individuals are telling enterprise customers effectively AI slop and customers getting increasingly frustrated. Sure the volume of output has been increased, but the quality has taken massive nosedive which customers are noticing. This has directly led to an increase in churn in Saas.

    So the corporate solution to that? Force those same already overworked individuals to start tracking churn/sales risks when they are being presented to customers as their "service advisor".

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago*

    all professional tasks” being done by AI. Most tasks that involve “sitting down at a computer” will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months,

    So does that include working in AI? In 18 months we will have the AI program itself?

    Quite the blanket statement, and as always with blanket statements, they are probably false.
    Of course it could be true to a lesser degree, like maybe 20%, but "ALL" is ridiculous.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    ...and then you get a situation where you can't do anything without AI-doctrine, -order, and -oversight. No person is ever able to compete against it, no matter how flawed the AI-result, because it's made the ultimate authority. The future is glorious under AI leadership. Because AI is sacred , superior and the guardian of truth. /s

    Let's hope the World will see the trend of this 'ideology' for what it is.... doubtful, because it's tech, not politics.

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  • 24 comments in c/fuck_ai@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 33 points 8 months ago

    'Experts' have been saying this shit for years. Literally at least two decades.

    Meanwhile, how many companies have had to backpedal (even recently) because they went too far with their dependency on AI, and everything went to shit and they had to rehire a bunch of humans?

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  • [–] 23 points 8 months ago

    So we can set on this as the AI equivalent of "cold fusion in 50 years" phisics constant?

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  • [–] 18 points 8 months ago*

    I give it 18 months for the AI bubble to crash, and that's being generous.

    Nobody wants this shit, let alone enough to pay for it. The novelty has worn off for anyone with half a brain. People can't even afford modern hardware. And if big tech can't turn theft into a profitable business, then how is this ever going to pan out?

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago

    If AI could do this then the work would have already been outsourced to cheaper countries.

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  • [–] 14 points 8 months ago

    Just because you spent billions on it doesn't mean its good

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  • [–] 14 points 8 months ago
    [–] 14 points 8 months ago

    "…and is the AI superintelligence in the room with us right now?" 😆

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago

    Famous words that will be swallowed.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Not feeling very confident, Microslop. The AI dudes usually promise their industry takeovers every six months, not 18.

    Based in CEO claims AI should have replaced me 4-5 times over by now. It’s still shitty. I’m still here.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Yeah on the one hand you may still be there but a lot of us are getting fired by our idiotic bosses because they think the AI can replace us

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    That’s the shitty part. The news always says they have to hire them all back eventually but it’s not guaranteed to be the same group.

    For many, AI is just the latest excuse to downsize and juice the quarterly revenue numbers for shareholders.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago

    Yeah and computers only need 640K.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I've not tried to get an LLM to create a CAD model yet. I'm sure it's possible. I'm also sure whatever it came up with would need me to go over it and fix all the mistakes....

    ...hey, this must be how coders feel right now.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago

    It seems to be trying to get rid of me already by making it take 5 sign in attempts to join a teams call late

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago
    [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    Microsoft, how much do you want to wager my job will be replaced by AI? Just assume I also have billions of other people's money to spend like you do, and give me the sum you bet if this doesn't pan out.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    In 18 months, I might be the King of Spain!

    Look kids, two things that for sure are not going to be happening!

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I am so curious about what happens when companies can't buy computers because RAM, Storage, and chip sets are so expensive, and therefore can't continue to buffer this bubble. Your tech is literally starving the people that you need to use it of their ability to do so but cutting off the supply to tech used to access it.

    The prices of all computing are rising, wages continue to be stagnant, and every company making hardware is giving all the hardware to AI firms, assuming people will just use what they have. But there's no new supply when what they have becomes obsolete or breaks. This is a shitshow. This is like babies first capitalism for these fools. It's not even remotely sustainable.

    And you want to put the people most likely to be forced to use the tech you're schilling to be out of work? Make it make sense.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I am so curious about what happens when companies can’t buy computers because...

    Probably why I see this more and more: Windows Cloud PC

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