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[–] 3 points 1 year ago
98 comments in c/technology@lemmy.world view that post
[–] 214 points 1 year ago (6 children)

Holy nothing burger, Batman!

First off, this article is from 2022, re-released to farm clicks from the current hype cycle.

Secondly, this is conjecture on top of conjecture. They discuss that we can't know the current damage from satellite, and Iran down plays the damage. Then they go on to say "concrete is strong and can be stronger".

Articles like this annoy me. It's all based on lots of unsubstantiated claims, and then one guy's theoretical research. We don't know the strength of the bombs. We don't know the strength of Iran's bunkers. We don't know how much damage was done. None of this has changed. I doubt we'll ever really know. But throw whatever political spin on it you want, and now you've got a click worthy news article.

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  • [–] 40 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    There's also the fact that the majority of Iran's nuclear facilities were built before UHPC, the concrete discussed in the article, was available!

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I thought we do know the depth of the bunkers though. And that American bombs can’t go that deep, even multiple of them

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  • [–] -3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I can't speak to that aspect. But I firmly believe that if our military planned and carried out this strike, then we had very good evidence that their bunkers were at a depth these ordinance could reach.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 year ago*

    Consider who actually makes this decision, in this case. It's highly likely our intelligence assessment here is very accurate orr flat out denied by the dipshits actually making the call if it's not what they want to hear.

    Like they did publicly. On this conflict. To the press.

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  • [+] 59 points 1 year ago (4 children)
  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago* (2 children)

    That's impossible. "Make America Great Again" is a slogan that he can only abuse as long as there are problems. If he wants to stay in power it's in his best interest to create problems. It's what fascists dictators have been doing since forever. Even if there are no problems they will point towards something and make you think it is a problem, so they can market themselves as the solution. If he would "win" he would lose his power, which is obviously the opposite of what somebody like Trump wants.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    That is depressingly insightful. See also: the internal war on everyone who isn't a middle-aged white cis het man (and even some of them, too). Just negativity all around.

    What really brings me down it's the certainty that even if that is guy was suddenly not there anymore, there is a whole gaggle of like folk ready to continue that same rhetoric. How do you even dig yourselves out of that?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    That is depressingly insightful. See also: the internal war on everyone who isn’t a middle-aged white cis het man (and even some of them, too). Just negativity all around.

    Yes. Separating the people is an extremely strong tool in the authoritarian handbook. It is such a strong tool that the things it accomplishes are too much to list here. There are a lot of books on the matter. I think it's even explained in some of the CIA books.

    What really brings me down it’s the certainty that even if that is guy was suddenly not there anymore, there is a whole gaggle of like folk ready to continue that same rhetoric. How do you even dig yourselves out of that?

    This is not completely correct. People fighting back against their oppressors sends an extremely strong message. And it even goes both way. For example, the attack on the USA Capitol of January 6th gave these Magazis a lot of power because they saw unity in their oppression.

    The good thing is that there's always more good people than bad.

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  • [–] 65 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    Sounds to me like someone is trying to justify actually using a tactical, atomic bunker buster.

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  • [+] 26 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)
  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    I never really got why tactical and strategic nukes are so wildly different. Aren't those words more or less synonyms?

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  • [–] 13 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    The reality is that "tactical" and "strategic" are functionally meaningless adjectives when applied to weapons or systems.

    Theoretically, "tactical" refers to how a military unit engages another military unit. It is how a commander wins a battle against an enemy unit.

    "Strategic" refers to how a nation engages another nation. It is how a government wins a war.

    The term "tactical nuke" referred to something that a lower level commander could have been authorized to use under his own judgment. If Soviet tanks were rolling across Europe during the cold war, commanders may have been granted the discretion to use small nuclear weapons to halt their advance.

    Since the the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction was established, there has been no such thing as a "tactical" nuke. Any wartime use of a nuclear weapon of any kind demands an escalation to total annihilation. I used the term "tactical" ironically, to refer to a pre-"MAD" doctrine that can no longer exist.

    In declaring that conventional bombs cannot penetrate this fixed bunker, it seems that someone is pushing for unconventional warfare. The reality is that this bunker is not impenetrable. It shares the same weakness as any bunker: getting into and out of it. Bomb the entrances to the bunker, and it will take months or years to tunnel back in. Whatever they are doing inside it, they won't be doing until they manage to dig it up again.

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  • [+] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    rest of Tokio is mostly intact

    and housing becomes much more accessible too when buildings are intact but their inhabitants have much shorter lives because of radiation

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  • [+] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)
  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago

    "Eventually" might be a long time with radiation.

    20 years after the Chernobyl disaster the level of radiation was still high enough to give you a good chance of cancer if you went to live there for a few years.

    https://www.chernobylgallery.com/chernobyl-disaster/radiation-levels/

    I don't know how much radiation these "tactical" weapons release, but if it's comparable to Chernobyl, even if the buildings were not originally damaged, I don't know how fit they would be for living after being abandoned for 30 or 40 years.

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    [–] 20 points 1 year ago

    Impressive.

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  • [–] 40 points 1 year ago

    That concrete really isn't new and really isn't that special. There's a reason they built it under a mountain - because the mountain does what concrete can't.

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  • [–] 37 points 1 year ago (22 children)
  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (3 children)
  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (16 children)
  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    That's why we need the Orbital Ion Cannon.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    You triggered a thought: what if those bunker busters carried a payload of corrosive material, something that the explosive event could deeply embed into the concrete, slowly degrading its strength - possibly until total failure?

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    What material would that be? Corrosives have limits, they can't just keep dissolving stuff forever.

    And what would "total failure" look like? It's a mountain, it's not going to just collapse into goo.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    Corrosives have limits, they can’t just keep dissolving stuff forever.

    Thus, the explosive assist for initial penetration. The type would depend on the composition of the concrete, you'd probably be more successful targeting the tension strength of the fibers or metals instead of the compression strength of the cement.

    And what would “total failure” look like? It’s a mountain, it’s not going to just collapse into goo.

    You don't need goo, you just need enough weakening that it no longer supports the 250' of loose rubble atop it and collapses into the interior space.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

    My first thought is actually getting the corrosive substance onto enough of the concrete would be difficult, assuming they aren’t able to penetrate the concrete then they have to rely on it seeping from the ground, or if they can penetrate then the substance is only really going to be in the chamber where the buster detonated.

    I have zero experience with ordnance or busting bunkers though so that’s just a shot in the dark

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    My first thought is actually getting the corrosive substance onto enough of the concrete would be difficult

    Yeah, if the concrete is 40' thick and they're only getting 10' of penetration with the explosives, then this isn't going to do much. But if it's 20' thick and they got through the first 12 with HE, the remaining 8 are going to have a lot of cracks to admit slow liquid death.

    I have zero information on what the reinforcers are in the concrete, so shot in the dark is about right. Glass might be tough - unless you could deliver hydrofluoric acid effectively. Metals - we're not going to want to wait for iron to oxidize, looks like hydrogen embrittlement with HF again - so maybe that's the magic sauce. Nasty stuff, but that's what weapons manufacturers are good at handling and packaging: nasty stuff.

    2000 lbs of HF poured on the surface isn't going to do much to the buried chamber, but 2000 lbs of HF delivered into the freshly stressed and heavily cracked concrete layer under all the dirt - that could be a problem for future use of the facility.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    Unfortunately (?) HF is a gas.

    inste-edit: I know I'm being pedantic and a reasonable concentration of hydroflouric acid is what you were talking about. There was an article somewhere about a 1 tonne spill on chlorine triflouride

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    There was a "etch your VIN in your car window glass" campaign around here years back, they had a liquid solution of HF that they were wiping across printed stencils to do the glass etching. The fact that its natural state is a gas just makes it all the nastier to handle - and possibly even more effective at diffusing through the cracks to cause hydrogen embrittlement of any steel reinforcement it may come into contact with.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago

    "no, these missiles only bust the bunkers we tested them on."

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (14 children)

    They mean mixing in steel dust or nylon hair?

    Hard to believe this is a recent enough thought.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    I doubt it's a recent thought, knowing civil engineers, they're absolute perverts when it comes to concrete.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago

    It has been around in some form since there has been manmade concrete.

    Personally, I bought a box of chopped fibers for inclusion in a concrete project some 30 years ago - sold labeled for that specific use.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    IIRC this type of thing isn't new - there was research into the possibility of making ships out of ice mixed with sawdust in WWII.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago* (4 children)

    How is the fleet holding up?

    We almost made it this time!

    Oh well, let's freeze another fleet, wait for January and try again

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I think that was kinda the idea - war production meant steel was in great demand, and this seemed like a really cheap way to make ships. I wouldn't want to try sailing one round the Caribbean, but they might have been okay in the north sea, for example. They didn't work out though, can't recall why but it's not impossible that melting may have been a factor!

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    Fuel requirements could get to astounding levels, even with ambient air and water temperatures below 0C any "hot stuff" onboard (engines, lights, radios, people) would have to be offset with some kind of refrigeration system, which requires: more fuel to be burned. I'm sure you can "stay ahead of things" in some environments, but it won't be cheap on the fuel side of things.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    The idea was to build giant floating barges in the mid North Atlantic for sub hunting escort aircraft to refuel halfway across. The escort aircraft at the time couldn’t stay with the convoys the whole way, leaving a stretch in the mid Atlantic where they were vulnerable. An ice runway would allow aircraft to cover the convoy for the entire passage, and in the North Atlantic would last months (if not longer) before melting.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    It's been done in mining for decades

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  • [–] 29 points 1 year ago (13 children)

    From this article it sounds very likely that the bunker buster attack failed.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I mean they usually only do about 30 damage anyways.

    Source

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago

    My guess: that bunker buster attack was twice as successful as the missile attack on the the airfield in Qatar.

    2 x 0 = 0.

    Now accepting bets on when we will find out that Trump had a secret call with Ali Khamenei where they negotiated the whole thing ahead of time, thus explaining the movement of the Uranium out of the facility, the movement of our servicemen out of the airbase, etc. etc.

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  • [–] 21 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    And I read that the US used more than half of its stock of these bunker-buster bombs in this attack, the largest conventional bunker-busters in existence. So they can't simply try again.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago

    Why? The kinds of UHPC being discussed in the article weren't available even in the United States until the year 2000 but most of Iran's nuclear facilities were built between 1974 and 2005. Even their primary enrichment facility in Fordow, which was struck with MOPs, was started no earlier than the mid-2000s as it was still unfinished in 2009.

    Basically the majority of Iran's facilities, even their major ones, are too old to have the kind of concrete being discussed in the article.

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  • [–] 38 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Giving the yield strength in psi is the most pointless thing ever. Every single engineer would use metric Pa so its clearly a conversion for the average american idiot but the average American idiot has no idea what yield strength is.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Sorry bud, you're straight up wrong. Aerospace and defense in the US very much still uses the inch-pound-second system of units.

    I'm not a concrete guy, but I know that metals and composites have material properties certified for use in civil and commercial aviation are given in psi in MMPDS and CMH-17. I would be willing to bet that concrete specifications in the US are no different.

    I could keep going. Our bolts are specified in ultimate tensile strength by psi. Structural steel standards use minimum yield strengths in psi. There is literally a type of steel called A36 because its minimum required yield strength is 36,000 psi.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    If it's reinforced steel concrete, it would be much harder to bunker bust.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 year ago* (8 children)

    Basically they used pyramid age tech to outplay billions of dollars worth of weapons tech.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago (7 children)

    Hardly. Did you read the article?

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Egyptians stacked blocks of stone to build the pyramids.

    Roman concrete was impressively strong.

    Neither of them had steel-reinforced concrete.

    Neither did Gothic cathedrals, which is why they needed flying buttresses.

    Reinforced concrete as we know it today is a 19th century innovation, as I understand it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforced_concrete?wprov=sfla1

    Maybe the commenter was thinking of adobe.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    The greater strength is achieved by turning concrete into a composite material with the addition of steel or other fibers.

    Fiber reinforcment is thousands of years old.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)

    So I did not read the article because of a paywall I'm too lazy to circumvent right now

    But from OP's summary, the main technology they're talking about is concrete reinforced with steel or other fibers.

    And that's definitely more advanced than "pyramid age"

    But it's also pretty much a direct descendant of mud brick reinforced with straw which humanity has been using since well before the pyramids. Same basic concept, different materials.

    So yes and no.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago
    [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    I sure would like to read this article, it seems fascinating, but it's paywalled.

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  • [+] -25 points 1 year ago (2 children)
  • [+] -9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    Just one followup question: Who cares?

    Edit:

    Trump didn't give the order to specifically destroy the bunkers

    Had that order been given they would have continuously bombed the site(s) until it/they was/were destroyed

    Judging by the results of the strike the order seems to be very limited

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