cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/53783081

When you’ve been waiting to build a new PC and you see tech stocks crashing

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[–] 18 points 1 day ago (2 children)

checks stock market

What is this, a crash for ants?

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  • [–] 2 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    Analysts are saying it can last well into 2028, simply because everyone else who is serious, tempered and well adjusted didn't promise the sky and the heavens.

    The fact is, LLMs are here to stay and the world is building capacity. Unfortunately that means the consumer market is going up be fucked for some time more.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 hours ago

    And LLMs truly do have some utility. Nowhere close to what they continue to promise, but nonzero nonetheless.

    It remains to be seen how "profitable" it will all be, but yes, the technology stack itself is here to stay.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 day ago

    I don't even want new, I just want something a little less potatoey. My pc is almost old enough to move out on its own and start raising tablets.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 day ago

    I am so glad my old 10 year old GPU died in 2025 which forced me to build a new PC at what turned out to be the best time to do it.

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  • 60 comments in c/memes@lemmy.world view that post
    [+] 105 points 1 week ago (11 children)
  • [–] 55 points 1 week ago (9 children)

    Stay the same? Oh, sweet summer child. There's a story posted this morning about PCB prices skyrocketing now due to AI. Lasting out till 2030. This roller coaster ride is only getting to the wild bit.

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  • [+] 31 points 1 week ago (6 children)
  • [–] 11 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Oh, I absolutely agree. I'm only saying that we haven't even stopped going up yet, and we won't for some time.

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  • [+] 16 points 1 week ago (1 child)
  • [–] 15 points 1 week ago

    It is a pretty good laugh to see Windows 11 and all of its old system requirements. Suddenly made a irrelevant as Microsoft Scrambles trying to keep themselves relevant. At one point it was 8-16 Gigabytes of RAM was the base. Now all of a sudden there are brand new Windows 11 laptops on the market with only 4 gigs.

    And it will still be a pretty shitty experience. You might be able to run a lot of the same applications, but I can guarantee you under Chrome you're not going to be having tabs plural open. Just tab.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago

    No demand is relevant for price is just that right now the demand is 400% of supply so a decrease in demand doesn't make much of a dent when they've just bought up the whole supply for a year. It will affect things in 2028.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)

    Not the same day sure, but I'd the market crashes then its reasonable to expect it to drop at some point.

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  • [+] 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)
  • [–] 0 points 5 days ago (1 child)

    What about when they know their stock is losing value

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  • [+] 1 point 5 days ago (1 child)
  • [–] 1 point 5 days ago

    I meant physical stock rather than stock market. If you could sell a graphics card today for £1k but it looks like if you wait it will be worth less then you will want to try and sell it before it drops.

    Plus over time newer hardware comes out which is faster and then your existing stock becomes worth less due to having to compete with the new stuff. You bought all this stock and you want to make a profit or keep losses down.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

    Of all the things that could go up, PCBs were absolutely not on my list.

    What is it? Has copper shot into the sky?

    (Bonus interview today from stock traders into how AI is going to take over the economy and stocks will never fall: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POys36tQh80 - important point to keep in mind while watching that none of the AI companies have any earnings, so they have a negative P/E.)

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  • [–] 37 points 1 week ago (15 children)

    Joke’s on them! I’m using my 2019 laptop until it’s dead and buried 😭

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  • [–] 11 points 1 week ago (8 children)

    I have a couple from 2009 still chugging along. Seriously, for a little web browsing and basic YouTube. They're more than adequate.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago (7 children)

    Slap a low-resource Linux flavor on them and they’ll keep going for years! I’m running Nobara and love it.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago (6 children)

    I currently have one of Action Retro's favorite distros on there. A little MX Linux. Before that, I had the latest beta of haiku. Which I really liked, but was having some graphical issues. ATM though thinking about nura x86. It makes KDE plasma almost almost usable on 4GB of ram with an arm tablet I have. I figure 10-20 bucks to double the DDR2 in it and it should feel almost modern.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 days ago (5 children)

    Are you absolutely positive that DDR2 would set you back only 20 bucks?

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  • [–] 3 points 6 days ago (4 children)

    Depending yes. Was looking on eBay. Couple years ago would have been so much less

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  • [–] 2 points 6 days ago (3 children)

    go look again. and make sure you're looking at 1x4gb or 2x4gb kits, not bullshit with 2x2 or 4x1 like they so often end up being. 2gb modules are 10usd or less, cuz nobody wants them for upgrading. but ddr2 sodimm 4gb modules are 30-40usd each. that's today, tomorrow? who tf knows but it won't be less.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 days ago (2 children)

    yep lots of deceptive listings. Yeah saw that, and the best modules are outrageous atm often getting up to 100 dollars

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  • [–] 1 point 5 days ago (1 child)

    That's the exact same experience I had when I wanted to upgrade with a legacy type of RAM like a decade ago, and back then I was already told that it's always like that. Legacy sticks don't get produced anymore and if you need them, the sellers have you by the balls - hence older is more expensive in this situation

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  • [–] 2 points 5 days ago

    The original simns and dimms definitely have always been a bit more pricey and rare.They come from a pre-internet era before the big explosion and computing that happened in the early 2000s.

    DDR2 was everywhere and dirt cheap for a time. Well, if you knew the places to look. DDR3 was getting close to joining if before all this bullshit started to happen. Hell even DDR4 a couple of years ago. I got ahold of a HP elitebook with a ryzen 7 2000 series and 8GB of ram. I wanted 16GB so I just needed another 8. But looking at the price, for a similarly specced kit to what was in it. It was 20 to 30 dollars more for some 32GB kits. Needless to say. That laptop has a ridiculous 32GB kit in it now. If only things were still that cheap.

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  • [–] 9 points 6 days ago (1 child)

    Saying hi from my 2013 Dell XPS 13" laptop (8GB RAM).

    No I didn't dig it out to make a point. It's my main laptop.

    It's had Arch Linux on it for the last 13 years, and I haven't really noticed things getting slower. There are some websites that make Chrome chug, but if I stick to sensible ones things are just... normal.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago

    Also still using my 2016 tower PC. The only thing slowly getting its way is new software using x86-64v3 instructions which I did not knew was a thing till the Mario Kart Wii PC port did not run :(

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  • [–] 3 points 6 days ago (2 children)

    If it means anything, my current setup is a beheaded Samsung from 2019, with only 8gbs of (single channel) RAM and a shoddy i3 cpu, hooked up to a monitor like a goddamn Commodore 64 🫠

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  • [–] 15 points 1 week ago (4 children)
  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    But personally, I prefer the Lorax that wasn't used to sell SUVs.

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  • [–] 14 points 1 week ago (5 children)

    I built one. It's a Waveshare RP2350-pizero with added 8MB PSRAM to emulate a 386 DX. I installed MSDOS 6.22 on it, and I'm waiting on a I²S audio chip to emulate a Soundblaster for it.

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  • [–] 23 points 1 week ago

    I'm so unbelievably happy that I had the good sense to buy some desktops with 32gigs of RAM prior to 2023.

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  • [–] 11 points 1 week ago

    Stocks or not, they will say the data centers will be needed for national security and mass surveillance.

    How will we ever be able to survive without an omnipresent bot watching and judging everything you do.

    Look at the lengths they are going to just to get some red cows to sacrifice, hoping its a step towards judgment day. what do you think they will do to create what they can call God to use and judge everyone .

    I'm not a scientist, these are just some thoughts I think about when trying to sleep

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  • [–] 10 points 1 week ago
    [–] 19 points 6 days ago (10 children)

    Sorry, but sellers will NEVER let the price come down. It will take years, if ever that prices start coming down again. Also, there is almost zero chance the rich give up on their dream of replacing expensive employees with GPUs. Even if the market corrects a bit and washes out some weak businesses, the AI build out isnt going any where. There is money to be made replacing employees, and someone is going to make it, come hell or high water.

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  • [–] 21 points 6 days ago* (4 children)

    "Even if the market corrects a bit" I think you have no concept on how large that bubble has become already. This could heavily impact the real economy.

    After the bubble implodes it will become much harder to finance such data centres, never mind that it will be much harder to find a place to build it, even with all the corruption in the world.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 days ago (3 children)

    I understand the numbers are truly staggering, but I've also been around the block enough times to know employers and investors will go to unbelievable lengths to save costs on labor. If the 1% believes AI is going to cut labor costs, then nothing will stop them. Nothing.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 days ago (1 child)

    Elon said it. The big companies with other sources of revenue, like SpaceX, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook will survive. It's the myriad of startups that are neck deep in debt for building out data centers that will fall.

    And, while eventually AI might fulfill its promise, it's not a given. It may not be possible with any amount of money and effort, like faster than light travel.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 days ago

    With the current tech, AGI is literally impossible. They believed scaling, clever architecture, and context window tricks would solve the issues of the current LLMs, but fundamentally diffusion and backpropagation cannot iteratively learn as they have no way to train during inference.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 days ago

    That doesn't matter if the house walls are coming down because the cards are falling. Of course there is something that will stop them, the real cost of LLMs. There are no real costs yet, they are hidden by the bubble. The 1% loves cutting labour cost but not when that means losing money.

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  • [–] 7 points 5 days ago (4 children)

    As someone in the midst of being replaced by AI, it ain't happening. It's superficially great at my job but the moment anything needs fixing or changing its more work than if I (or a human in general) had been paid to make it properly in the first place. No real productivity has been gained or time saved, those costs have all just been kicked down the road. The only thing LLMs (specifically LLMs, narrow/specialist systems have legitimate uses) have really enabled is the ability to produce Bethesda levels of technical debt in record time.

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  • [+] -6 points 5 days ago* (3 children)

    Sorry bro. It is over. AI may not solve all the problems they say it does but it can code and they'll continue to get it better at coding. Software is now something you can imagine and create without writing it.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 days ago

    AI can only be as good as its available training. The only improvements have been clever ways to approach that asymptote, but no true work arounds. To get them to truly learn, would require algorithms better than diffusion and backpropagation, and those currently do not exist.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 days ago

    I'm upgrading my GPU as soon as I can. Luckily I thought ahead and got 2x32 DDR4 in 2022, so I've really just been waiting for crypto mining to calm down.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 days ago

    Not waiting to build and I still want it to die

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  • [–] 3 points 6 days ago (4 children)
  • [–] 14 points 6 days ago (3 children)

    Google lost 12% in a day, and everyone is just waiting for the first domino to fall

    I don't think this is it, but we're seeing more and more signs that it's getting close

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  • [–] 1 point 5 days ago (1 child)

    Arguably the dominos are already falling, but it is difficult to see till they start to snowball larger, or if they'll find another source if funding to keep the ball uphill for a little longer.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 days ago

    The cracks are showing, but when the dominoes start falling there won't be any debate, it'll be very obvious

    It could literally happen this week or it could take a year, my money would be on the sooner but these things have a way of hanging on longer than you'd expect

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    It was inevitable

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