cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/72667532

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[–] 34 points 1 month ago (1 child)

That graph doesn't actually indicate what the title says. If the number of fatal accidents rises proportionally with the number of children walking on the street then the level of danger remains the same.

It's actually possible it's the safest if, say, the number of pedestrian children goes up five times but the rate of accidents only triples.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    cars are the number one killer of children, kids just usually don't go out at night or it would be worse on the other 364 days #BanCars #CarsRuinEverything

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago
    [–] 3 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    That graph looks a bit noisy to me... Seems like every other day is pretty close to the most dangerous day of the year for child pedestrians...

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    It's a little confusing at first, but that black line isn't an indicator of which day is halloween - it's the actual statistic. Looks like Halloween is almost twice as dangerous as the second most dangerous calendar day

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  • [–] 1 point 1 month ago

    the child meatgrinder is more efficient on haloween

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  • [+] -2 points 1 month ago* (1 child)
  • 27 comments in c/til@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 194 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

    A textbook example of how to lie with statistics.

    In the entire US there are around 10 child pedestrian deaths on an average night. On Halloween there are only around 14 deaths despite thousands more children on the street. This means the actual risk per child is exponentially lower on Halloween night.

    So the reality is the opposite of what's being claimed. Halloween is perhaps the least dangerous day of the year for child pedestrians.

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  • [–] 45 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (3 children)

    Which might also make sense, if drivers are aware that a lot of kids will be walking around, they might be more careful.

    I wonder how the number of deaths has changed over time. Road and vehicle safety have improved, lighting improved, it's more common for kids to have reflective objects on them, and fewer kids are going out. Maybe it was a lot worse in the past?

    So discussions like the ones in this thread have helped save lives, but I'd much rather the post itself wasn't misleading

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  • [–] 20 points 1 month ago

    Vehicle safety in the us for pedestrians is worse than ever. The amount of huge and heavy SUVs who hit people litterally like a truck with their high hoods, which also have huge dead spots in driver vision have counteracted the technical improvements made.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

    42 years of statistics were analyzed in the linked study. Perhaps the chart's creators were trying to alarm drivers and parents to make them more careful, but they could have done so without wildly overstating the danger.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    I wonder how the number of deaths has changed over time. Road and vehicle safety have improved, lighting improved, it’s more common for kids to have reflective objects on them, and fewer kids are going out. Maybe it was a lot worse in the past?

    also they changed the date for daylight savings time changes so now it's light until like, 8pm on halloween.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago

    Base rate fallacy?

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  • [–] 15 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Given it is almost certainly the day with the highest concentration of child pedestrians by a wide margin I can only imagine.

    Still, sounds like a great reason to be extra special careful on the road on the 31st.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Maybe I’m getting old but I think I had this opinion always: I don’t understand why drivers don’t, eh, slow down?

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  • [–] 25 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    The only day of the year children are allowed to go on foot beyond the end of their home driveway.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago

    Its also the busiest night of the year for pizza delivery and probably any other food delivery too.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Is it bad I assumed the y-axis was like hundreds or thousands?

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  • [–] 8 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    I'm surprise it's only a few times the background level. Historically, when more children went out, it was probably higher.

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  • [–] 29 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Yeah, looking at the stats, it's actually probably one of the safer days for kids to be pedestrians given the amount of extra miles walked by kids on Halloween.

    You'd really want this to be fatalities by miles walked, rather than raw fatalities.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    Yup. In any lotsa-kids area, they're everywhere, and everybody drives really slow because of it, but with 20 times the kids out and about, it's not unusual at all that there'd be two or three times more fatalities.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago

    Even without the stats, I would have assumed as much.
    The more you have people and cars in the same space, the more they will collide, and the more people will be killed. I expect it's not just kids but the same for adults too.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago
    [–] 2 points 1 month ago
    [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    Double points?

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    Trunk-or-treat is fucking sad, but necessary in some areas.

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