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[–] 18 points 2 months ago (1 child)

That’s a quarter of the whole world’s broad money. From a single company? GTFO Anthropic

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  • [–] 14 points 2 months ago
    [–] 18 points 2 months ago

    They should enforce copyright law by forcing all models trained on copyrighted data to be released open weight.

    (Not that I believe copyright law is a good thing but big corpos getting a free pass is all kinds of fucked).

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  • [–] 9 points 2 months ago

    So much of the finance industry is a corrupt joke now, and plebs like me are the butt.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago

    Are they predicting the devaluation of the USD?

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)

    I expect my potential revenue will be at least twice that.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago

    Anthropic already shifting from monthly annualized revenue announcements, to speculative revenue announcements... That's a good sign, right?

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  • 68 comments in c/technology@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 131 points 2 months ago (9 children)

    Wall Street, where everything is possible…if you just fucking lie confidently.

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  • [–] 19 points 2 months ago (4 children)

    I think some of them actually believe. Like on Blind where the tech bros think $100k/yr is poverty wage. They haven't been living in reality in a long time. The tech boom has been going on since what like 2010. It's far longer than the dotcom bubble. They keep managing to jump from one fad to the next. It's far eclipsed prior bubbles.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    100k/year in San Francisco is definitely low income.

    Official government figures using an exemplary family of four (two adults two children) already classified a household income of $117,400 as low income back in 2018. By 2025, that threshold has risen to $159,000.

    San Francisco: Where a six-figure salary is 'low income' - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44725026

    Places Where a Six-Figure Salary is Considered 'Low Income' - https://internewscast.com/news/places-where-a-six-figure-salary-is-considered-low-income/

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago

    Your example there is household income. In that exemplary family that means each parent is making $60k in 2018, $80k today. Which paints a very different picture to the claim that "a six figure salary is considered low income".

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  • [–] 36 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    The worst part is I don't even think that they think they're lying.

    They're so delusional that they 100% believe what they're saying.

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  • [–] 14 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    They are absolutely delusional enough to think that THEIR company will eventually reach AGI but I don't think any truly believe these numbers.

    There's been no consequences for lying, only more profit. Look at the space X ipo....The market has shown they'll pay whatever they're told to so lie lie lie.

    Lying gets you customers, investors, and government subsidies. And when your competitor lies, you just have to lie harder. The grift economy.

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  • [–] 73 points 2 months ago (5 children)

    Guys I see 100 billion potential children of mine being born in the next year if my entire sperm count is utilized.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

    With about 4 billion women, that would require they get 25 children with you each.
    Yes the math checks out, that sounds possible over a period of some years.
    For a second there I thought you were exaggerating. 😋

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  • [–] 65 points 2 months ago (4 children)

    So the global total GDP this year is estimated to be $100trillion. Anthropic expects it's revenue to eventually be equivalent to 30% of global GDP? US GDP is expected to be $32trillion this year. Antrhopic expects it's revenue to be eventually be equivalent to 94% of US GDP?

    And we're supposed to believe we're not in a bubble?

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  • [–] 16 points 2 months ago

    SpaceX expects 26T. OpenAI didn't say but if you ask Sam he'll make up a number for you for the last third of world GDP.

    Their argument is that AI will make everybody so productive that world GDP will grow massively. Not that there really is any evidence for that, but hallucinating things is now a business plan.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago

    Total addressable market is the amount of revenue they think is available to all AI providers, combined. So it makes sense that this is in the same ballpark as SpaceX's "enterprise services" estimate.

    And yes they believe 25% of the economy can be automated with AI. Which is a big downgrade from 100%

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  • [–] 42 points 2 months ago* (7 children)

    Meanwhile, in the real world, my company has locked down usage of Anthropic's top-tier models, because costs were out of control. Even the low-end models are usage-capped, and developers are starting to write code by hand again.

    And we're busily setting up local models we control ourselves on our network edge. We'll probably end up with a modest budget for frontier models (until the model providers collapse), but most of the coding will be done by local models and developers themselves.

    And that seems to be the way the entire industry is going, unless Anthropic starts subsidizing tokens with investor money again.

    In conclusion: Get fucked, Dario.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 9 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Honest answer? Not much... yet. As the stupidity of "tokenmaxxing" and replacing developers with hallucinations-and-plagiarism engines really comes into focus, I expect developer hiring to ramp back up.

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  • [–] 32 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    keep in mind that would be enough to solve homelessness in virtually any nation

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  • [–] 31 points 2 months ago

    is this revenue in the room with us right now?

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  • [–] 28 points 2 months ago

    For context, that's 25% of world GDP or ~$3750 for every man, woman and child on earth.

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  • [–] 24 points 2 months ago
    [–] 19 points 2 months ago (3 children)

    Meanwhile their ACTUAL revenue is a mere $5-10 billion.

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  • [–] 18 points 2 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 17 points 2 months ago* (4 children)

    Yeah, and I foresee over $30 trillion of potential revenue in my OnlyFans page.

    The difference? There is a realistic expectation of at least some guaranteed revenue from my onlyfans page without incurring tens of billions of dollars in debt first.

    And I can show legitimate growth on my onlyfans page without the aid of “AI”. And while “AI” is a fad, the world‘s oldest profession isn’t going anywhere…

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago (3 children)

    What's your OF? Asking for a friend, lol

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago* (2 children)

    I’m not gonna tell you because I have an aunt named Patty McBride IRL, and this just got real weird

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  • [–] 13 points 2 months ago*

    I don't get it, that's less than the global GDP, why is there parts of the global GDP they don't consider accessible?
    Or in other words, If they really go on to claim that, they are claiming that more than a quarter of the world GDP is accessible market to them!

    This is insane, and has no basis in any kind of possible reality no matter how optimistically viewed.

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  • [–] 11 points 2 months ago*

    Oh yeah? Well my business making artisanal bibs for cats will have $31 trillion in potential revenue*

    * assuming a cat owner population of around 1 googol.

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  • [–] 11 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    Haha. Are you fucking kidding me!?

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  • [–] 10 points 2 months ago

    Why would any investor believe this?

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  • [–] 10 points 2 months ago*

    That's over a quarter of 2025's global GDP. Just to highlight how grounded and sensible this claim is.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 months ago

    Economics has basically come down to "make ridiculous claims and as long as you claim it, mi ey will flow"

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  • [–] 8 points 2 months ago

    A bout of hyperinflation is all that's needed to make this prediction come true.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    Why stop at 30 trillion? I'd have thought anything above 4 or 5 would be pure fantasy.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago

    This is a scam to outsource their market analysis and generate publicity

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago

    A whole group of people that no one needs lying to another group that no one needs while both destroy the earth

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  • [–] 5 points 2 months ago

    GAAP or GTFO

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago

    Where is this money coming from? VC's sure as hell don't want their companies spending big. Billionairs obviously won't spend money on anything other than buying elections. Normal people have no money to spend on AI. So … what is the revenue stream? Don't tell me it's ads.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago

    I would love to see the logic behind that belief. It's gonna be a good read. According to the first few results on the internet, the entier oil industry is, like, 4 Trillion per year (IEA says 3.5 Trillion in 2018). What the fuck is the slop bot supposed to do to make almost an entire US GDP of money?

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (6 children)

    Guys… $30TR is the TAM - not what Anthropic is saying they’re predicting to sell. This is being waaaaaaay overblown because of the misunderstanding of a single acronym

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Anthropic is likely to tell investors that it sees its total addressable ​market (TAM) exceeding $30 trillion, ahead of the $28.5 ‌trillion estimate from SpaceX (SPCX.O), the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

    they’re predicting to sell GREATER THAN $30 trillion because they’re overvaluing a business that has no pathway to profitability.

    It also isn’t ’way overblown’ because in no way is this standard behaviour in a market. To me it looks like a pump and dump with more steps.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    they’re predicting to sell

    This is exactly the point of my first comment. TAM is not “what you expect to sell.” It does not mean that.

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