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[–] 134 points 1 month ago (75 children)

I still can't decide if these people are delusional or I am.

Every single time I use an LLM it fucking "lies" to me or otherwise completely fails at the task. The people talking like this seem to me like they've never actually used it, or haven't actually vetted the accuracy (like most AI users).

Maybe I'm just not using the "good stuff". Or I'm not imaginative enough to foresee a near future where these problems are actually corrected and it becomes trustworthy.

I've never been so torn by a technological prediction.

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  • [–] 12 points 1 month ago

    Generally I've found that:

    If the facts are painfully obvious from a simple web search, then GenAI has a decent chance of getting it right. This can be useful if you can't recall any "key" words well and the GenAI can craft several searches and get there.

    However, if it does mess up the facts, the result looks superficially the same as "correct". So while it can give accurate data, you always have to double check. This can still be useful, as finding the right search terms can be a decent help.

    In coding, sometimes in some situations, you can have requirements that are absolutely testable, and thus you can have the models retry and retry until it works. This isn't always feasible. Even when it seems feasible, you may screw up the criteria, or the GenAI when enough freedom disables a probablematic test rather than solve it, and it likely will generate code that's not really fit to modify. There are a lot of situations where this is useful, but it is infuriating that non technical people and even some low skill technical people assume this is always the case.

    Then when you get away from facts mattering, it gets "better". Example, someone jokingly asked for one to "make gta6". After a while it came back with a GTA 1 clone. Lots of people were impressed, because whatever it did could be considered a success even as it obviously didn't match the expectation. The operators also like to GenAI some webcomic, where it is a fiction. They almost always didn't have any interesting thought going in so they tend to be crap, but "correctness" didn't matter.

    Of course, also making fakes. Supreme case where looking correct matters but being factually correct does not matter at all. GenAI above all else "seems" correct.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

    I've been able to find a workflow where it's mostly correct and can handle most of my gamedev related coding without making too many mistakes. I still have to actually read through the code and pay some attention to what it's doing, and if it misses something and goes on a wild goose chase, it's unusable and I have to start over (so someone who didn't know what they are doing would be cooked), but whatever.

    Sure, it does require a lot of looping adversarial reviews, and my average token cost is around 3000$ (4B tokens) a month (we have unlimited budgets and a pretty accurate tracking, and also probably cheaper than consumer prices per token with how large company it is), which is actually more than my monthly salary, but it's just a job, for a company and on a product I don't really care about, and I can 1) keep slacking in my job while doing my own coding stuff and projects, and keep seeing how absolutely unreasonable the prices are if you want to get at least semi-submitable results.

    You could ask if it's necessary to spend so much tokens - but so far most adversary review rounds do find serious blocker bugs the first implementation had, most of them being some hidden stuff that would be difficult to reasonably find by hand unless you really understand everything around the code, which you should, but the point of AI is that you shouldn't have to.

    Is it worth it? Lol, no. The whole team is loosing codebase knowledge, we're getting bottle-necked by pending PR reviews that are just stacking up and no one wants to do, so we're not even more effective, the cost is absolutely absurd and in no way near sustainable or worth it. And the longer it goes on, the less I can realize it's spewing bullshit and I should stop it and nudge it into a different direction in our codebase, because I'm slowly loosing touch with it, while for now I'm still relying on what I remember from before we went all-in on AI.

    And that's while the whole industry is in the "Uber pricing" phase, so it will get a lot worse. But yeah, if you can burn 100-200$ per a simple implementation task, then it can have a pretty usable results. And that 3000$ a month does not include our CI review bot, that does additional rounds of multi-agent council reviews. And I'm not even working on anything complex, mostly just various menu screens UI. I can imagine the bill getting a lot higher if you get into more involved systems.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    Yeah, every time I say this to someone they say it's fine when they use it because they pay for the latest expensive model. Except they've been saying that for the last couple of years, so I guess they were lying back then...?

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  • [–] 11 points 1 month ago

    from my point of view it feels like most people are willing to trade their cognitive function for being lazy, which is a boundary i never want to cross.

    AI will produce a lot of code but most of it is pretty poor quality as most training data is going to be poor quality code, there's just always going to be more bad code than good to begin with just due to how difficult quality code really is to produce. I'll give a hint, good code is usually small and succinct.

    since my work started pushing AI live site issues have increased dramatically. turns out the person using AI looks like they have a ton more productivity but in reality that just shifts to whoever is reviewing the code. and to those who will say its the developer's responsibility to review the code, yeah no shit, but if you ever work corporate you realize most don't care as long as their managers think they are productive and just blame others for being bottlenecks.

    Overall it just enlightened me to how bad the average developer really is, but i guess obtaining mediocrity is the sacrifice to make in the name of "productivity".

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (5 children)

    Eh idk I still have it make mistakes constantly.

    Recent example: I asked AI to help me come up with a search/replace string for editing a file in vim. My prompt was something like “I am editing a text file in vim and I need to replace with . How can I do this with :s/ ?” And it spat out something that didn’t work. It was not valid syntax (for vim, I think it was valid standard regex, or close to it), and it didn’t quite follow the pattern I was trying to describe (although ofc that could be my fault to some extent). But it was useful in that it pointed me in the right direction to come up with a correct formula with some follow up googling and experimentation.

    That has been very typical of my experiences with AI. Useful sometimes, but absolutely not “does everything to the point you don’t have to think about it” that seems to be a common opinion.

    For context I’m using ~20GB local models, so not Claude, which people who pay for LLMs swear by.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    I use Claude + local models.

    Yes, older models will make those mistakes. The solution is to provide appropriate agent/skill definitions so it doesn't just spit something out, but rather comes up with the solution, then smoke tests it in a separate scratch environment.

    Claude uses this approach for reinforced learning, and it works well. Takes a few more rounds to resolve, but the solution is generally flawless (for that specific purpose).

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    This is basically the same as asking someone who knows a bit about everything to recite obscure information from memory. I doubt most humans would do better.

    What you're missing here is a feedback loop, validation, skills, etc. For example, if I ask one of my well-configured agents the same question, they go read the help/man page/other docs, start a vim session, quickly test/iterate until the result is correct, then give me a one-page document explaining what I need to know, with cited evidence — far faster than I'd do it, and I can keep working for the few seconds it takes. This rigor is written into my global instructions, not something you get out of the box on most models (Anthropic's models tend to be good at this without handholding, which is part of why they're so popular, aside from the fact that they just don't make as many mistakes).

    The same mindset scales to larger software problems, too. As long as you have a well-defined specification and good agent instructions (and/or something like Spec Kit), you can have agents break it down, implement, and then other agents compare the result to the spec, and just keep looping until it is done. The hard part is writing good specs and requirements, but that's not a new problem.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    This is basically the same as asking someone who knows a bit about everything to recite obscure information from memory. I doubt most humans would do better.

    Sure, but a good web resource or even a good reference book would provide better help faster. Unfortunately it’s getting harder to harder to find those good web resources as search results get overtaken by AI slop.

    iterate until the result is correct, then give me a one-page document explaining what I need to know, with cited evidence — far faster than I'd do it

    I have gotten it to do this in certain situations, like the other day I wanted to simplify a math formula, so I gave it a loop with a Python script that checked its solution against the original reference version. This worked pretty well.

    But I had to write code specifically for that situation. Even with a good skeleton to start with, it’s a non-negligible amount of work to get that set up. I feel like the scenario in which this is useful is kinda narrow: when I have a very good idea of exactly what I want, but some step along the way is a hassle. General software engineering, like making a whole app, is far too open ended, and most of the sub-problems I encounter in software engineering seem either too open ended or too small to benefit from this approach.

    That also doesn’t account for the speed of models. My experience is a ~20GB locally hosted model takes like 1-5 minutes to produce a good length response, and the few times I have used online models they are often slower. A few minutes per iteration, accounting for debugging when it goes off track, is not exactly fast or hassle free.

    I just feel like the trade off where using AI vs doing it all myself is pretty limited in when AI offers an advantage.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago (4 children)

    The class is for healthcare and I won’t get more specific, but yes, you can use AI today to make whole ass Excel spreadsheets.

    lol, it amazes me what some people are impressed by

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  • [–] 9 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    Yeah, so far when someone shows me a concrete example of this amazingly complicated thing that GenAI helped then realize, I think "really.. that's it?"

    It's a decent reminder that a lot of people have more modest needs and a lot of the enthusiasm can come from that, and maybe that's more understandable.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (1 child)

    Tbh I'm old. The first computer I ever used didn't even have a GUI. That a machine can take my specs and spit out a spreadsheet is fucking unbelievable to me, and I refuse to become so jaded that I can't be impressed with the leaps forward that stuff makes.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    This isn't me being jaded. This is me saying "whole ass Excel spreadsheets" is an extremely low bar. Especially when almost two trillion dollars was pissed away getting it here. Imagine if someone had pumped that money into literally anything else.

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  • [–] 27 points 1 month ago* (21 children)

    I'm curious what you are using. The free versions of chatgpt have been like that for me, but even Gemini flash with extended thinking, also free for a while longer, is giving me pretty reliable results as long as there training data out there to derive an answer from. The higher (paid) Claude models will one shot most coding tasks.

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  • [–] 28 points 1 month ago (4 children)

    I've not yet fucked with Claude. I don't want to pay for it, and I really don't like the surveillance aspect of these centralized systems. Mostly I'm using Gemini, whatever DDG had in their search results, and local models I've been fiddling with (like Qwen3.8 right now).

    All more or less garbage once I get into the details of anything on the edge of my expertise.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I've been using OpenCode with whateverthefuck free models they have listed on there and they all seem to do fine with agentic tasks like building me scripts or executables to make my work tasks easier.

    I used Gemini at the start with "Frontier Knowledge" and it seemed to do worse than the ones listed on OpenCode, but maybe that's because i could only do like three prompts a week since I refuse to pay into an AI.

    end of the day, its just LLMs writing code for me, but I cannot see how this would be useful for a large scale code base, but also #NotAProgrammer.

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  • [–] 24 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Claude can one shot tasks until you get a larger system then it completely shits itself. These models are nothing more than autocomplete, and they can’t hold large systems in their heads. Anthropic literally tried to rewrite all of bun using Claude, they said they did it and yet it still hasn’t released six months later.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    until you get to a larger system then it completely shits itself

    This has gotten a lot better for me by having a "send out scouts" skill that has a lower tier model agent search through the codebase before it starts to plan. Has handled my companies giant monolith pretty well and even can handle cross repo features as well.

    Yet it still hasn't released six months later

    Claude code has been using the new rust bun for ~5 months now and has been working fine, and bun 1.4 that released in August is using the rust rewrite

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    It is worth noting that the repo had multiple Anthropic employees commiting to it after the bun rewrite and before release, and that so far the only successful use cases that Anthropic or OpenAi showed are... rewrites from one language to another given sufficiently large test suites.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    I mean as long as the coding tasks are simple, and seeded with enough context, then sure. As in "create tinder clone works", but I still have to check the output in my company codebase. We are leveraging llms a lot for code writing, full agentic pipelines, loops, all the shiny new approaches.

    The outcomes in all cases are still mediocre or below.

    We have twice as many open prod bugs as a year ago.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (5 children)

    How do you verify that everything it tells you is correct?

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  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago

    You check the links/references it gives you.

    Gemini does a pretty good job of this because it doesn't seem to have much built-in knowledge. Instead, it just searches the Internet on your behalf and returns summarized results with links to where it got that specific information.

    I use it to search for scientific research all the time and the summaries often aren't detailed enough so I actually click on those links. I've yet to encounter a situation where it fucked that up (invented links that don't exist) but I have heard about it happening.

    So far, the summaries have seemed to be pretty spot-on when it comes to biology papers 🤷

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (3 children)

    Use Claude and then get back to me

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (1 child)

    It's been so useful to me. It's crazy.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    Yeah a lot of things in the old homelab had gotten pretty out of hand, homeassistant was 3 years behind in updates. I've done 2 years of updates in a month. And written some custom stock charting software which saves me hundreds a month in subscription fees.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago (7 children)

    Give us an example of some of the prompts you're using and what LLMs. I'm curious if it's a use case difference or you're using the dollar store's customer service AI to try to help you with your coding homework.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 month ago (6 children)

    Here's a very common response to anyone that suggests they had a bad time with LLMs. You just aren't using the right model. You didn't ask the right questions. You didn't give enough context in your prompt.

    It's not the fault of this infallible AI, it's PEBKAC.

    Nonsense.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    No you weren't. You literally suggested I was using a "dollar store’s customer service AI to try to help [me] with [my] coding homework."

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    Using a dollar store's AI to help with coding homework would be hilarious! Just like rocks on pizza.

    You seem to be placing me in the wrong bucket. I use AI professionally, yes, but it also pisses me off pretty regularly. I'm not some "AI Bro" or whatever TF you're thinking. Just some guy who finds AI mistakes to be funny and I want to reproduce them.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    I mean yeah, it's not magic, it's a tool and it does take some skill / know how to use them correctly, and the people making those comments could be trying to teach those skills.

    Like if someone said they had a bad time with Linux you'll get similar questions and suggestions about their setup.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago

    I'll concede that using LLMs in a useful way may take some skill. However, that's not how these things are presented to everyone and it doesn't reflect the reality of how the majority of people use them.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 month ago

    Prompting an AI is very much a garbage in, garbage out type thing. Just like with any tool, you need to know how to use it properly to get the results you want.

    Hell, some of the things I've seen people ask AI would confuse a human too.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (7 children)

    He doesn't take about what is, he talks about what's coming.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    Problem is that Gates isn't really "in the loop" and doesn't have especially valuable insight.

    His position in tech was always a bit removed from the core technologist work, and now his exposure is a telephone game with people that are as distant from the tech as he was.

    It is really going around with no shortage of commentators spewing out guesswork, but Gates is given more credibility by virtue of his role 30 years ago.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    I’m seeing signs of behavior that is more than just a good auto complete, and think there is actual intelligence.

    I suggest you be real careful not to anthropomorphize these systems. To me this sounds almost like AI psychosis.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 month ago (1 child)

    No matter how much I carefully structure a prompt, define specific behaviors in skills, and tweak the agent md files it will still just go do something I don't tell it to or not do something it's got really specific instructions for. We have to write all code by LLM now at work and I'm trying to do my due diligence to review code before putting it up for PR. 9 times out of 10 when I tell it to show me a diff before committing it silently runs git diff in the background and prints "that's the full diff". That's with some basic "here's what I want when I ask for a diff" in the base context.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago

    It's a big club and you ain't in it. They have to sell it until the end and this guy is on the outs and not getting invited to the "good" yacht parties at the moment.

    The judgement you are considering from this person is the same judgement (and morality) that thought it was fine to be a close and frequent associate of jeffrey epstein.

    Bill gates is a desperate, broken man. He is the illusion of a man you once admired vaguely and that is the only remaining currency he holds that matters to him. The best thing about bill is the wife who left him.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 month ago* (3 children)

    Where I am forced to encounter advanced LLMs is every company rolled out replacements for my "dumb" assistants. Like Alexa on an echo dot or Gemini on Android auto.

    What I ask them to do does not take significant processing power. I need you to set a 5min timer. Not talk to me like you're alive. Don't overthink things, just do simple things.

    All that extra banter they added in eats up processing power. So now it's slower and works like shit because it's formulating some complex response to my request to beep in 5 minutes. Just set the timer, my hands are covered in raw chicken juice.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago (2 children)

    You can disable Android auto's Gemini by setting the digital assistant on your android phone to "none" under default apps.

    If you use these things more generally that might hurt you more than help, but it got rid of the bloviating idiot in the way of the old useful voice that gave me directions.

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