[–] 0 points 9 hours ago

The post using NES as a comparison is the main problem, in my opinion, especially given that Quake in 13k of javascript exists (only 3 levels, but still), which is a closer apples to apples comparison.

Besides, "needs to run on a multitude of browsers" is not hard unless you decide to make your javascript do absolutely everything, and even then it's easy to keep it working on the major browsers, you just aim for the lowest common denominator (usually Safari). The browsers do the heavy lifting of running on a multitude of OSs and architectures.

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  • [–] 1 point 23 hours ago (1 child)

    I have an old (not quite 2013 though) Atom

    That's not mid spec, that's bottom spec

    So? That’s pretty much always been the case.

    Ah yes, transistor fabrication has always been very close to the atomic level , no wonder it "pretty much always been the case". /s

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (3 children)

    Consumer hardware is perfectly capable of running much larger models too if you give it enough RAM, and is only held back by RAM being expensive.

    And average users having, at most, 8GB of RAM, with 2GB being eaten by Windows and another 2, minimum, by Chrome. Remember, average user is the person who doesn't bother with latest games and doesn't run linux, they only do some office stuff, watch videos and browse social media.

    But prices for RAM will eventually come down again and hardware in general will keep becoming more capable.

    At best, I expect RAM prices to drop back to their sane price somewhere in 2029-30.

    Also, you may not have noticed, but for average users (people that mostly just browse social media and watch videos), mid-spec computers from 2013 are almost perfectly serviceable today - just swap the HDD for a SSD and you're golden. Smartphones have also stopped getting significant hardware upgrades, despite shittier software trying to force obsolescence on older, mid-spec models.

    Why would hardware stop improving exactly now?

    Because current fabrication process of chips seems to be very close to limits imposed by the laws of physics. The 1nm fab process that TSMC might manage to pull by next year is possibly the literal limit of MOSFET. Unless someone comes up with a different fabrication process that can reach atomic precision, or somehow get more power efficiency from the same area/volume of transistors, or some wonder material, there's no reason to expect hardware to keep improving at the same pace it did decades ago. "AI will discover-" It won't. There is nothing indicating it might, much less will. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I seriously doubt AI will magic out some new way to get Moore's law back on track

    Accordingly, the AI models shipped with consumer devices will keep becoming more powerful and online models will be needed less and less for “average person” tasks.

    I seriously doubt that for a single reason: money. Why let the user have the model when you can rent it off to them? Or, even worse, the model runs locally, but you have to pay a fucking subscription in order to use it because fuck you. "You will own nothing and be happy about it"

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  • [–] 7 points 1 day ago (5 children)

    The reason why AI companies are spending so much money is to rollout data centres to run the AI in the first place.

    Yet all companies fail to point whether there actually is, or will be, enough demand for ALL the capacity being built. Remember, we're talking like 10+ huge datacenters that are effectively useless for anything other than AI.

    If the AI industry has to pay off 5 trillion dollars over the course of 20 years, that's 250 billion dollars a year

    The author compares with Google/Alphabet revenue, a company which deals in ads and several other services. Guess the problem of comparing a company with a somewhat diverse portfolio vs. one that has one single product. Microsoft had a gross revenue of 281 billion dollars in 2025. AI companies need Microsoft levels of revenue by the end of next year.

    Profits Can Grow, By A Lot

    They can also not grow, because Anthropic and OpenAI can end up scaring customers into open models.

    That means that there will never be a point where a company wins the AI wars

    Wrong, Nvidia has clearly won the war by selling shovels that are useless for anything but AI. RAM manufacturers are also laughing all the way to the bank.

    the average person isn't going to use a locally hosted model, ever.

    True. But average person can stop using said model if it starts being a scummy piece of shit charging hidden fees or eating up tokens more than the week prior. Besides, someone might try to rent their AI stacks for a profit and undercut the 2 inflated giants.

    There's Still Plenty Of Capital To Raise

    Everything's pointing to the opposite for 2027, with capital drying up, especially with "scaredy investors terrified of democrats being against datacenters". Anthropic going public is likely due to its less than ideal credit rating (thus forcing it to deal with higher interest rates), so they can raise more money and leave suckers holding the worthless share bag.

    Alphabet, Meta, and NVIDIA are all AI companies

    Alphabet is a "everything about google" business that has a side gig with AI, Meta is a spy operation business that has a side gig with AI, and Nvidia is an overpriced hardware business. None of them is an "AI company". The main problem of this bubble is absurdly excessive investment into AI, lots of scummy "it's technically a loan, but legally the company can omit this from the balance sheet" shenanigans and the desperation to force AI down the throats of the whole world.

    I don't think the rhetoric about the AI bubble is really about finances. (...) I think the supposed AI bubble has become such a large talking point because it represents the hope that things can go back to how they used to be. (...) So, people wishcast. They tell themselves that this is all a giant bubble, and one day soon, everything will crash down and immediately go back to how it used to be.

    Boy, imagine seeing an unproven technology receiving 2 FUCKING TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, being promised another 3 in investments and thinking "nah, this ain't about finances".

    As many people already said, the genie is out of the bottle. Nobody realistically expects shit to come back like it was before. Slop won, everyone that used to produce content lost, congrats, enjoy the shitshow of razing what little of the non corporate internet remained.

    Even if AI turns out to be a bubble, it will be a bubble in the same way that the internet was a bubble, where the underlying technology remains useful.

    The bubble is mainly in the datacenters, whose sole reason of existing is feeding AI. Remove AI companies and you'll have literally zero customers. AWS, Meta, Google, Microsoft have no use for nvidia chips for actual server work.

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  • [–] 5 points 4 days ago

    Yea, it sucks when you're super hyped about something and literally no one wants to hear about it.

    One thing that helps me out is writing about it, even if no one reads about it, so maybe keeping a blog can help you let off some of that steam. Maybe making a fun page in neocities to show off your stuff for anyone that might also be interested in GDG can be a step up from a blog

    Another way that can help you is doing audio or video reviews/analyses of the episodes and show the drawings they inspired you to do, no need to show your face or even post it to YT or any big social media, as trolls can decide to pile up and harass you.

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