I think the proposition of avoiding American tech in general will become more and more attractive in the coming years. Governments are already trying to move away from Microsoft for national security reasons. That'll have the knock-on effect of putting Linux and Libra Office in front of more people at work and school.

In combination with the advances in Linux gaming, This may be the first time since the 80s where the OS you're first exposed to will be anything other than Windows or Mac.

I predict it will be reminiscent to the migration to the threadiverse. Every now and then, we have seen Reddit make some stupid decision, and then we subsequently see a wave of new users migrate to Lemmy. Eventually, one day, I expect Reddit will make such a monumentally stupid decision that nearly everybody bails at once.

That is like what I expect Linux growth to look like. A few waves now and then with each major release of Windows, with each major Microsoft data leak, with each pricing restructuring, etc. Then eventually, Microsoft makes a single fatal decision that causes nearly all remaining Windows users to finally give up hope and migrate.

I think Microsoft will Do something anticompetitive which will stop the Linux growth.

Assuming you mean desktop Linux, probably slowly. While Linux on desktop is growing, Desktops PC use in general is trending downwards and Linux on mobile is far behind the other players.

My gut says that long before Linux overtakes Windows/Macintosh most people who want a mouse/keyboard/monitor experience will just plug their phone into a simple dock, like we're seeing with Android's "Desktop mode".

If I'm being 100% real, it will not happen without some kind of MAJOR societal shift relating to how technology and law enforcement is managed. If Linux ever becomes the default option, you'll have bigger things on your mind.

Best guess is slow growth that eventually plateaus around maybe the 10% mark if we're lucky.

People are slaves to comfort, and ultimately that is what Microsoft and Apple are trying to sell. They want something that idiots can't break, and they know the best way to do that is lock down the OS so much that you're hardly able to interact with it at all. Unfortunately, there's a lot of people fundamentally unwilling to expend the very, very small modicum of brainpower necessary to use Linux these days, and I just don't think there's any chance of reaching them.

Linux is the most deployed OS on the planet, and the comparisons are not even close.

If you mean just for Desktop, it depends on what's happening with the MacBook Neo, and if Microsoft gets their shit together and reverses course I suppose.

Things will mostly plod along slowly but then there will be some big event that causes usage to jump in a huge way, but not in the way that nerds like us want to see.

Actually, that has already happened. Linux is the most used OS in the world. But that's because it underlies Android, and that's not what most of us mean when we are talk about average people using Linux. We want to see people embracing open technologies and while Android might be open compared to Windows, it's not open in the way that we want to see.

If Linux on the desktop ever takes off in a big way, I bet it will also be in a way that makes me say "that's not what I meant..."

Slow and steady, with occasional spikes when a government or mega-corp does something particularly terrible.

Honestly, I hope that doesn't happen. I think if everyone started using Linux it would end up being diluted with commercial entities. You'd have Linux companies like Canonical scooping up more and more market share until they are essentially just the Linux Microsoft corporation. At that point, any decision they make becomes the defacto law of the land despite smaller independent distros/groups trying to do things differently. Other choices would exist, but basically it would be like how most linux users have to live with systemd changes because it's a nightmare to replace that without distro hopping.

You'd still see off-shoots for the desktop space, but if you want to use <INSERT_X> then you have go through this company.

You never know ... maybe THIS year!

The way windoze 11 is going - people really hating it - you never know, but I'm not holding my breath. Linux is still very niche, and people are wary of "strange" "new" things, especially FREE ones - where's the catch? I've seen it surge and blossom over the years, but it's still got a really tiny install base (as long as you don't count Android and embedded tech, where the OS and kernel are largely irrelevant to the user). But I don't see people moving over to Linux in droves any time soon, really: I've seen too much.

For context, I've been using it since [dredges up old memories] slackware was new, so about 1994, when a work colleague and I installed it (off about 20 floppies) onto an old 386sx PC with probably 4MB of RAM. Been using it ever since - and from Red Hat 4 onwards (about 1999) it's been my only OS on my own computers. I've always preferred it, and I've seen it grow in so many ways - I'd still use it if it was illegal. I haven't tried EVERY distro, but I have tried most. These days I mostly stick with Debian or Debian-based distro's (I'm currently on Mint LMDE).

As I see it, if there's a fast pivot point to Linux it will be when the larger PC makers offer, side by side with a Windows option, a "with Linux pre-installed" option, especially if the final price reflects the cost of the OS license.

Even then, the shift would take years as people slowly replace old machines, a process which itself takes significativelly longer nowadays due to the current insane prices for some PC parts.

Sure, there is a drip-drip effect from people getting things like the Steam Deck and Steam Machine as well as tech types replacing whatever is in the machines of their family members with Linux as a way to avoid having to replace that hardware with newer (and at the moment far more expensive) machines, but I don't think that adds up to much more that 1-2 per year.

Mind you, this is a point of view based on how things work in Europe and the US - it's quite possible that things are very different in places like China and developing nations and there are very different pathways and reasons for Linux adoption.

Big jump. To call it slow and steady now is nearly a lie.

A government will send out an RFP to Lenovo, HP, Dell to provide end-user workstations running their government standard distribution. It will be a 10-15 year commitment. This establishes hardware support.

They also establish a support agreement with an office suite.

This combo effectively sets up hardware and software support that becomes available to home users.

It’s almost the same idea as setting minimum wage or travel reimbursements for government workers and private sector follows.

I believe Linux will experience a slow, steady growth because the technical alternatives for most Windows features and softwares already exist, making it pretty much a matter of time until people realize it. But the friction, like IT retraining, vendor certified vendor support from Adobe and other shit, and general user habits, are still too high.

Edit: Although, on a second thought, maybe not even that slow given Microsoft incompetence at managing Windows.

Valve's Proton support bringing gaming to Linux effectively, Windows 10 reaching its EoL deeming millions of perfectly functional PCs as e-waste by requiring TPM 2.0 and a short list of CPUs, and Microsoft’s aggressive and incessant push of invasive telemetry and AI features (like that shit Recall stuff), are certainly driving a lot of users toward Linux. If Microsoft keep making decisions like this, I'm not sure how long they will be able retain their user base.

Stagnation around 5% tops.

People will use “shitty corporate Linux” because no corporation is going to pre-install an OS that isn’t shitty spyware because spying on you is worth money and why on earth would a corporation leave money on the table?

I expect an uptick every time a major Windows update does something users don't want. After the uptick some might go back to Windows or switch to Mac. But otherwise it will be a very slow and steady growth for GNU+Linux. I don't think GNU+Linux will pass 10% desktop OS market share before 2035, it might even take longer.

That's up to Microsoft.

I feel like that already happened. There was a big malware attack on Arch recently.

Everyone's already using Linux. Linux desktop? Guess we will see if desktop even survives the next few years. I know, unpopular opinion on Lemmy, but I'm pretty sure LLMs will redefine how we interact with our computers, apps, and work. Probably it'll be more like just talking to a wearable and it'll use whatever screens are nearby if it needs to show you something. You won't switch apps, you won't use the web, it'll all just happen as fast as you can dream and say it