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Do you think Linux popularity will be slow steady growth or a big a jump in popularity (lemmy.ml)
submitted 4 months ago by to c/linux@lemmy.ml
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Will I wake up one day to see everyone using Linux.

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[–] 23 points 4 months ago (8 children)

I predict it will be reminiscent to the migration to the threadiverse. Every now and then, we have seen Reddit make some stupid decision, and then we subsequently see a wave of new users migrate to Lemmy. Eventually, one day, I expect Reddit will make such a monumentally stupid decision that nearly everybody bails at once.

That is like what I expect Linux growth to look like. A few waves now and then with each major release of Windows, with each major Microsoft data leak, with each pricing restructuring, etc. Then eventually, Microsoft makes a single fatal decision that causes nearly all remaining Windows users to finally give up hope and migrate.

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  • [–] 17 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    You can also take a look at twitter where only a negligible amount of people migrated to free alternatives, most of the people who wanted to migrate did so to another mainstream platform owned by a for-profit company, and most people didn't actually care to migrate no matter what the platform owners did.

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    Reddit is now popping up banners that take up literally half the page if you're browsing a thread. Half of the value of Reddit is that you can find answers to a lot of questions on there via Googling, and they're now killing that

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  • [–] 0 points 4 months ago (3 children)

    If you look at fediverse monitoring stats, every new wave brings the total users to a very high peak, but then the users start decreasing steadily, like a capacitor discharging, until the next wave. It seems we depend on more waves to keep up with a reasonable number of people. It's probably a similar pattern with linux. With the end of win10, if got to like 5%, but has been going down since then

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    I suspect retention would actually be better for Linux. I used to be addicted to reddit before switching to Lemmy. Now I'm less addicted and don't check it as much as I used to check reddit. With a computer, making the switch means you've made the switch. Some people will dual-boot and go back to windows for some essential software but once you make the transition, you're still going to use your computer.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago

    There's no such thing as a permanent transition when it comes to software, and the data (statcounter, wikimedia stats and even steam stats) shows a decline recently, whether we want it or not. A lot of people might have ended giving up and installing windows 11. I'd love to see linux stats go up and swallow windows. like almost everyone around here, but we got to be realistic. Our personal experiences are very biased, so that's why we need to rely on data, which tends to be less biased.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago

    every day i use windows less than the day before. i still 'need' it for some things, including work, but on a personal level it's almost entirely linux lately.... but it's been a three decade journey.

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