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[–] 109 points 7 months ago (17 children)

The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives

Ok, so you don't need a ceasefire, you need to just fucking leave.

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  • [+] -33 points 7 months ago (16 children)

    The ceasefire is while theyre finalizing the peace agreement. If its all true then its standard.

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  • [–] 40 points 7 months ago (15 children)

    If its all true

    Imma stop you right there

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  • [+] -17 points 7 months ago (14 children)

    Do you think peace just magically gets signed one day and people pick up and leave that day? Obviously the process incudes a ceasefire to give time to finalize things and withdraw.

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  • [–] 24 points 7 months ago (10 children)

    Israel will probably just bomb Iran and everything will continue, they still want this war.

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  • [–] 0 points 7 months ago* (7 children)

    Yea but this chain is about having completed war aims so you should just up and leave instead of signing a ceasefire and finalizing peace. Isreal still says theyve got work to do and was still fighting. Plus isreal attacks from their home so they cant up and leave.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (6 children)

    isreal [...] cant up and leave.

    funny thing about colonizer countries...

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (5 children)
  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (4 children)

    You make a lot of assumptions about my ancestry

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    I live in California. I'm pretty fortunate right now to look white, but I have ancestors who were "adopted" from the tribe into white families. It's one of those nasty parts of history people just euphemise over to feel better about.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Im only bringing it up because being from America you should be able to empathize with being told that your family or friends should go home. Because for almost every American their is no "home" to go to. They're only citizens of America.

    Love them or hate them Isrealis live there and most do not have somewhere else to up and leave to.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago

    So my grandfather was [tribe redacted, we don't know but we have two good leads], "adopted"/kidnapped by a white family and had his history erased. Fucked him up, which had a nice compounding generational effect.

    Long story short, it's not very hard to trace most people's ancestry back to the 17th century. The people who it is hard, I'm not a specialist but pretty much every family has some claim of descending from a god. It makes for good stories of birthrights of kings and every family is related to the king of course.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Actually, often, yes. For example, there were people fighting and dying "in WWII" after a peace agreement had been signed. They didn't stop for a ceasefire and then negotiate a peace agreement. I would wager this is the norm, rather than a ceasefire while peace is agreed to.

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  • [–] 0 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    WW2 ended with Hitler killing himself and Germany doing an unconditional surrender. Thats a lot different than two sides who are still capable of fighting deescalating from conflict to peace.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago*

    Yeah... no. That was VE day only. Also, Hitler dying did not end the war. An agreement still had to be made. WWII ended with the surrender of Japan. Some soldiers were actually fighting for many years after, but still, the average one didn't get the news until after it was done.

    Meanwhile, WWI fighting ended with an armistice which, while not a full peace agreement, is a declaration to end hostilities. This did happen in a day also. That wasn't a temporary ceasefire leading into it.

    Again, I'd wager this is how the majority of wars end, especially when communication was slow. The ceasefire seems like mostly a modern thing from my understanding. It's only really possible with instant communication.

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  • [–] 74 points 7 months ago (20 children)

    What Trump has agreed to....

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  • [–] 55 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    wait what ahaha seriously? this is going to be the most "we actually lost" victory Trump is going to declare. can't wait for him to call this "deal" (no lmao) a peaceful cessation of power and a success. iran couldn't get more out of this if they tried.

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  • [–] 55 points 7 months ago (8 children)

    So basically the US lost is what I'm reading here. Not even a ceasefire just a straight defeat.

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  • [+] -10 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    You can literally read the word "ceasefire" if you open the article lmao

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  • [–] 19 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

    A ceasefire were you don't achieve any goals, and the opposing side gets major concessions is a defeat.

    The Iranian regime survived. The nuclear programme survived. Iran now has the right to charge tolls on an international strait. The US is negotiating an withdrawal from the Middle East. Iran will get rid of the sanctions. And in they will get reparations as a cherry on top.

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago* (3 children)

    So this 2 weeks is just them ending it and it's over and we're just going to forget about it because that's how the news cycle works and then this never happened Jesus f****** Christ murica lost again but the billionaires won cuz they made money on this by rug pulling the world's economy why do we live in capitalism so people can do this

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Well, I think some good came out of this. Mostly evil, but some good.

    I'm looking at (used) EVs seriously now. I'm betting a lot of other people are also trying to move to EVs after the nth price shock in x years. This one went at least as bad here as the start of the Ukraine war.

    Also there are now politicians in Germany initiating discussions about restarting some of the nuclear plants if possible. My own country sadly isn't too progressive on these issues, most people want shale rock to be brought back rather than additional wind turbines being built, since there were some points during the winter where there was no wind when it was really cold and electric prices shot through the roof.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    why are we destroying our environment with shale rock when we can destroy our environment with hydroelectric and get waterskiing out of it

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago

    We've already dammed the like 3 rivers we have. We just don't really have any major ones here :/

    We do have copious amounts of shale rock and it's pretty much the only natural resource we have that's worth the money to mine. Which is why a lot of people aren't happy about reducing it.

    But even fossil fuels aren't as reliable as people seem to think. The fancy new shale rock generator has been down as much as it has been up. They keep investing more money into it. Yay taxes.

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago

    I don't think Trump would agree to #6. However, Trump could explain to Iran that ending sanctions would enable Iran to rebuild. #2 and #5 require explanation. Trump would probably agree to letting Iran having sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, but they would have to keep it open. Iran would have to agree to any UN resolution banning it from developing a nuclear bomb.

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  • [–] 72 points 7 months ago (22 children)
  • [+] -53 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (21 children)
  • [–] 34 points 7 months ago (13 children)

    Did Iran fold? They are firing missles at Israel, like right this moment

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  • [+] -33 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (13 children)
  • [–] 35 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    Do you remember why the strait was closed in the first place.

    This is like knocking over someone's sand castle, getting your ass beat for it, they agree to stop if you rebuild the sand castle, you do and declare victory

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  • [+] -20 points 7 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 13 points 7 months ago (3 children)

    It is, the right position is he should have never started it the first place. Now he'll scream victory and leave. Only costed millions, if not billions, of dollars and thousands of lives. Such success

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  • [–] 9 points 7 months ago* (2 children)

    The cost is estimated to be 500 mil per day with $31 billion spent on the five weeks of bombing seen so far.

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    That doesn't include any damages, which are significantly higher

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago

    Infrastructure repair around the gulf, hundred billion range, more if bombing continues.

    A few trillion in economic damages around the world probably.

    Reputational damages to the USA resulting in less trade, borrowing costs, etc. is up to a trillion per year in the coming years.

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  • [–] 11 points 7 months ago (6 children)

    Haven’t seen the straight open yet.

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  • [–] 26 points 7 months ago* (4 children)

    Have we actually heard anything directly from Iran about this, or just Trumps blabbering? Just because Trump said it doesn't make it so.

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 17 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Wasn't the strait technically open "in coordination with Iran"? Drop them a couple mil and you get through.

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago

    Exactly, they were already coordinating with various countries to let ships through. I believe the number of ships has been steadily increasing. Every agreement Iran makes cements their newfound sovereignty over the strait including this ceasefire.

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  • [–] 15 points 7 months ago

    The ubiquitous two more weeks.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago

    Well, it's still a bloodthirsty imperialist...

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  • [–] 8 points 7 months ago (9 children)

    What bothers me is that the Iranians seem to take this bait literally without being too critical. They're basically saying that they're ready to open the strait right away for negotiations to happen, even when Trump bombed their country during the previous ones. I think they will come to regret this.

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  • [–] 11 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Maybe Iran will commit to the ceasefire in the same way Israel committed to the Gaza ceasefire?

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly. It’s tit for tat. That’s been their strategy this whole time. I don’t think they expect the US to take negotiations seriously at all.

    I do however think Iran wants to appear reasonable to the rest of the world. Under the ceasefire, they still expect other countries to coordinate with them to get ships through. That was already happening prior to the ceasefire but now it’s clear that’s what they expect from everyone. They’re forcing the world to acknowledge Iranian sovereignty over the strait which is a pretty serious win if they can keep it.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (1 child)

    What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.

    What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.

    A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.

    Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran's chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word "Hormuz", to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they're forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago

    I’m not sure they really lost momentum. They are still exerting control of the straits by enacting a toll, something they had already begun doing. A two week ceasefire isn’t enough time for countries to replenish their oil reserves and secure alternative energy sources. What they probably need to do now is extract concessions that allow them to rebuild and become even more resilient against US intervention. If they get even half of the 10 demands they laid out as part of the ceasefire agreement they’ll be in a more advantageous position long term.

    The question I have right now is, will they resume firing on Israel now that it’s clear Israel has rejected the terms of the ceasefire? Everyone knows negotiating further with the US and Israel is pointless. Iran needs to show that if their demands aren’t met there will be consequences. If they don’t aid Hezbollah, that would be a sign they’ve lost momentum. It could mean that they aren’t confident enough to include their allies as part of the tit for tat strategy they’ve followed throughout the entire war.

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  • [–] -1 points 7 months ago*

    They will. All it will take is a few drones from Iran atracking Israel after the cease fire and then the narrative will be "Iran violated the ceasefire, bombing will continue and now Europe has to help keep the strait open".

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  • [+] 4 points 7 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 10 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Their Foreign Minister did reply to the proposal, promising to open the strait, their only leverage, for the duration of the negotiations.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago

    It is not their only leverage, though it is by far their strongest card.

    They've proven that they can destroy the energy infrastructure in the gulf, if they have to go full scorched earth. They've also proved capable of hitting Israel very painfully, and while it's nothing compared to American bombs, the Nazis in Israel have a very low tolerance for any attacks at home, they can't sustain a genocidal war when the victims aren't mostly children and can actually fight back.

    They've also already inflicted heaven losses on the US military, not to mention proved that they'll come out on top in a war of attrition.

    The only way the US/Israel can truly defeat Iran is with nukes, and while I do think Trump is stupid enough to do it, hopefully enough sane people can convince him that that's not the victory he's looking for.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago
    [–] 1 point 7 months ago

    There is no ceasefire

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  • 11 comments in c/news@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 39 points 7 months ago* (3 children)

    Thank goodness it's TACO Tuesday

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  • [–] [S] 28 points 7 months ago* (2 children)

    I figured this was coming tonight with his bluster this morning about destroying their 'civilization'.

    He always goes super extreme BS before he does a 180.

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  • [–] 18 points 7 months ago (3 children)

    Agrees with who? Didn't the Iranians stop engaging with him?

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  • [–] 15 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Looks like he had Pakistan write a Twitter post proposing a 2 week delay. Apparently that's what we call an agreement these days.

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  • [–] 10 points 7 months ago

    So, what will he do next to distract from the Epstein files, which he demanded be released before he was elected?

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

    Is anyone surprised? He knew from the start US wasn't going to attack but he nevertheless spent hundreds of thousands of tax dollars so that he could pretend it was real by sending B52 bombers on flight. What a wussy spending all that money to save face rather than improve health care and homelessness.

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