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[–] 92 points 8 months ago (18 children)

These "bet on anything" sites know people with insider info cheat, and don't care.

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  • [–] 55 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    The people running the sites take a cut from the other people getting richer.

    The real question is who the fuck is betting against that? What a weirdly degenerate thing to bet on without insider info

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  • [–] 28 points 8 months ago (14 children)

    The crazier thing is that other bettors know people with inside info are cheating and don't care.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago (10 children)

    Thé Guy above ypu made a good argument, that a great way to bribe making it look like a bet.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    Oh ya because pulling off a bribe right now is a real operation.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    I dunno, is there only one action allowed at the same time ? I mean the world isn't linear, things can happen at the same time.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago* (3 children)

    Sure you could just hand him a gold sword on international tv.

    But what if we...

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    I dont' understand what you are saying. Is it some kind of North American reference ?

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)

    meh. I'd posit this is a bunch of folks on the edges seeing what's happening, seeing the grift factory that the admin is, and getting in themselves on a lil something before the whole thing crashes to earth.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    Yeah good theory too. The strange thing is someone betting against a strike in Iran. Do people bet constantly on things like that ?

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago* (1 child)

    dunno. I don't understand these markets. perhaps there is a market for people who vote against things happening writ-large - like, i bet tomorrow godzilla won't attack, anyone taking?

    it's beyond me. as is the vast majority of gambling, which I've seen first hand wreck lives and destroy families. ordinary, sensible people, computer nerds and engineers even, suddenly thinking they have some way of making money off some insight.

    I fundamentally do not understand any of it. There are certainly grifters and rubes tho.

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  • [–] 113 points 8 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 30 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    LOL... the orange pedophile rapist is taking open bribes with his eCoin and other scams...

    Betting based on classified intelligence is like coffee money

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    These are probably him giving bribes to others, right? He gets to essentially anonymously give someone money without having to actually spend any of his own money

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    No, he took Billions from people who had to know there was no economic value to his eCoin.

    All that money went directly to trump... now they get whatever they asked for

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  • [–] 59 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    The only winning move is not to play.

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  • [–] 17 points 8 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 29 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    This is just like gambling on sports when you know that the players are also betting. It's insane.

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  • [–] 26 points 7 months ago

    WRONG WRONG WRONG

    There are laws and enforcement, but only for working class people and well-off Democrats.

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago

    About 4-5 hours (IIRC) before, the massive drop-off in bar activity around the pentagon made it obvious something was happening imo. But not sure what evidence was 6 hours before (bar activity was normal at the time I think).

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  • [–] 9 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Aren't all these bets made of a blockchain? Aren't these transactions traceable from wallet to wallet?

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Can we like... Sue, over this? This has to be illegal, right?

    I get that I sound like a whiny nerd saying 'BuT ThEy Can'T DO tHaT!' But let's be honest legality is this administration's weakpoint

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    monitor things that the us gov has control over for large sudden bets

    copy those bets

    money

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  • [–] 9 points 8 months ago

    Can I place a bet that we'll find proof of this? And a parlay bet that nothing will come of it?

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    There's a reason Trump brought attention to only insider stock trading at the State of the Union. They're 100% playing the prediction betting market.

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  • [–] 11 points 8 months ago*

    Regardless of the bet, there are ALWAYS insiders... at the least the house.

    The house always wins

    This also applies to the stock market, USAs favorite casino

    Who's "the house" for the stock market? The FED

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago

    As they say in poker, if you can't spot the fish at the table, it's you.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    Sounds like Americans to me

    Surprised they don’t do this with their school shooters

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago*

    I mean, I’m sure there’s insider betting and all, but I don’t think you need inside information to predict the USA will bomb a school in Iran…

    edit: gotta capitalize

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago

    Testing, please ignore

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (6 children)

    Who the hell is taking these bets and paying out for this kinda shit? What if I bet my life savings that I'm gonna fart in the next 3 days?

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Normally people fart about once an hour.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (2 children)

    And an hour from now would be within the next 3 days.

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    It was pretty clear about a day before that it was going to happen. If I'd had to bet one way or the other I would've bet on an attack.

    It's not sus that people make bets that pay out. You need to compare them to the knowledge at the time and look for patterns.

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    I had no idea Trumps are involved, though I'm not surprised - the chance to profit off of the suffering of others is per the norm.

    He also serves as a strategic adviser to rival prediction market Kalshi.

    This doesn't sound one bit ethical, again it tracks.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago

    No, that does not seem to have any relevance to bets placed on the thing. What connection do you think is there?

    What I mean is, if you can correlate bets with the activities of specific groups, then you have something. If all you have are bets, why the fuck do you assume they're insider bets?

    Here's a good way of looking at it: if you didn't know that the US attacked Iran but could analyse the bets taking place, would this group of bets make you confident that the attack would take place? Or would it be lost amidst the noise of people betting each way? Can you find other cases where big bets were placed that didn't pay off?

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