No, that does not seem to have any relevance to bets placed on the thing. What connection do you think is there?

What I mean is, if you can correlate bets with the activities of specific groups, then you have something. If all you have are bets, why the fuck do you assume they're insider bets?

Here's a good way of looking at it: if you didn't know that the US attacked Iran but could analyse the bets taking place, would this group of bets make you confident that the attack would take place? Or would it be lost amidst the noise of people betting each way? Can you find other cases where big bets were placed that didn't pay off?