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[–] 140 points 9 months ago

Hey, it’s almost as if everyone is realizing that AI is total bullshit .

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  • [–] 128 points 9 months ago (6 children)

    There's clearly an AI bubble. Let's just pop this shit and get it over with. The sooner the market corrects, the sooner it can start recovering.

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  • [–] 27 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    Ah, but don't forget about the second and third bubble.

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  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 31 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    These things come in cycles.

    six months after the bubble "pops" someone will come up with an AI that can grind minecraft for you or whatever, and that'll spark a whole new wave of interest in "robust independant agents" until companies realise that's also not worth 500 trillion

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago

    Here’s hoping that because they have crammed this version of ai into everything it could possibly go into, and even a bunch of things it can’t, the hype wagon for the next one is a honey wagon and everyone rightly stays away from it..

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  • [–] 58 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    It only takes one of these large companies to walk away for everyone else to panic and the bubble will burst. I really hope MS takes a step away from it and actually tries to innovate something.

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  • [–] 38 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Apple has been dragging their heels on AI from the start. They got sued by shareholders for not having enough AI in their products fast enough. Makes me wonder if they smelled the shit from the start and have been half-assing it on purpose.

    Microsoft has been the opposite. If both of them shrug and say “I guess we’ll just have slightly better digital assistants”, the market might wake up and go “oh, shit.”

    I think OpenAI and Anthropic could get bailed bought by MS/Apple/Google in a fire sale. Grok will just suck it or get propped up by Trump.

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  • [–] 56 points 9 months ago

    He's the guy gonna be left holding the biggest bucket of slop

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  • [–] 50 points 9 months ago* (1 child)

    They're going to lose their shirts over this shit.

    They're trying to force their utopian vision of robot and human slaves serving the "elite", but they need the slave's help to get there. Probably, that time will come, but not in their lifetime, and that's what's pissing them off. It's all about them--their selfish, psychopathic desires, humanity be damned. It's also why they're trying to develop immortality drugs--they see the dream of all past capitalist overlords as finally, possibly in their grasp, but they can't quite get it. They're like frustrated monkeys reaching through the cage bars and fighting each other.

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago

    They're going to lose their shirts over this shit.

    Lmao billionaires never see consequences. It will implode and millions of regular people will lose their jobs and have the tools they need blow up and stop working. But the billionaire that caused it will be just fine in the end.

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  • [–] 40 points 9 months ago

    He is effectively saying specialised ai has a possible future and llm are a huge waste of time and money. But he doesn't know that he is saying that.

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  • [–] 33 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    For anyone curious and lazy:

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, Nadella pontificated about what would constitute such a speculative bubble, and said that the long-term success of AI tech hinges on it being used across a broad range of industries — as well as seeing an uptick in adoption in the developing world where it’s not as popular, the Financial Times reports. If AI fails, in other words, it’s everyone else’s fault for not using it.

    Nadella explained the pitfalls the AI industry would need to avoid, perhaps betraying his own anxieties about its future.

    “For this not to be a bubble by definition, it requires that the benefits of this are much more evenly spread,” Nadella said, as quoted by the FT. The “tell-tale sign of if it’s a bubble,” he added, would be if only tech companies were benefitting from the rise of AI. He gave the example of a pharmaceutical company using AI to accelerate drug trials; it doesn’t need to be used to discover the “magical molecule,” but provide some other tangible, less extraordinary benefit to developing the product.

    Nadella is adamant that these kinds of boosts that AI provides will justify AI and carry the industry, stressing less spectacular and more practical applications of the tech.

    “I’m much more confident that this is a technology that will, in fact, build on the rails of cloud and mobile, diffuse faster, and bend the productivity curve, and bring local surplus and economic growth all around the world,” he proclaimed.

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  • [–] 10 points 9 months ago

    I’m much more confident that this is a technology that will, in fact, build on the rails of cloud and mobile, diffuse faster, and bend the productivity curve, and bring local surplus and economic growth all around the world,” he proclaimed.

    Jesus christ i want to stuff him in a locker and roll it down a hill

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  • [–] 31 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Good, maybe he'll back off on pushing this crap.

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    [–] 61 points 9 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 29 points 9 months ago
    [–] 28 points 9 months ago

    seems like, if it's bad for microsoft, it's good for humanity.

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  • [–] 28 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Nervous that AI has been the biggest driver of people switching to linux, I did. I didnt want cortona and I certainly dont want copilot or recall

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  • [–] 27 points 9 months ago

    Omg our path forward on how to avoid the consequences of our actions isn't aligned with our fundamental business needs of doing whatever we like with no consequences. If only my MBA training and Six Sigma/Lean Leader certs had prepared me for this. I better go post on LinkedIn about how GenZ did this.

    • someone somewhere at MS
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  • [–] 27 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    Once those companies will be held responsible for everything AI (copyright issues with training, resource waste and people getting harmed and killed from their output), they'll have every reason to be nervous.

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  • [–] 23 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Best we can do is a government bailout

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  • [–] 18 points 9 months ago

    Can I just say I love how Iceland treated its 2008 banking collapse? They didn't bail out anyone, but they did protect investments by people. Some banks died, losing their investors billions. People didn't lose their house or their own retirement.

    This is the way we should treat all of this. Let the companies die, and let private equity take the hit for being stupid.

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  • [–] 25 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    Nadella is adamant that these kinds of boosts that AI provides will justify AI and carry the industry, stressing less spectacular and more practical applications of the tech.

    This is a huge about-face on the earlier proclamation. I really wonder what changed his mind from "AI will radically transform every industry" to "it doesn’t need to be used to discover the 'magical molecule,' but provide some other tangible, less extraordinary benefit to developing the product."

    Sure, everyone here has seen the writing on the wall for years, but until now his paycheck has depended on him not seeing it. I wonder if he's getting internal pressure from some on the board of directors.

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Shareholders told him he's not getting a golden parachute

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  • [–] 25 points 9 months ago* (2 children)

    Jack-Nicholson-Nodding.gif

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  • [–] 21 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Because his product isn’t winning?

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  • [–] 20 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    They should. Fuck, AI doesn't even need to implode for them to get bent. I'm forced to do some stuff with it at work for 'research'. Copilot is the worst of the worst. I don't know how they could fork GPT and come up with an even worse product, but there they are.

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  • [–] 13 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    I don’t know how they could fork GPT and come up with an even worse product, but there they are.

    That's a Microsoft specialty... have you seen Edge lately?

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago

    Lately, no. I had switched to them from Chrome for vanilla testing assuming Microsoft was less able to market my data. Had it running in Linux, no less.

    Then they dedicated to dropping manifest v2. YEET

    I saw the rebranded o365 to copilot, Making the one last product that some people still had an appetite for look incredibly unappealing.

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  • [–] 52 points 9 months ago (22 children)

    If you need a new type of nuclear reactor to power your shit it means your shit is too complicated.

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  • [–] 32 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    There are plenty of things that are complicated and could use a new type of nuclear reactor.

    Training LLMs just didn't seem to be one of them

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    But thanks to Satya I can now right-click a file and select “Summarise”, how is that not a massive MASSIVE productivity boost???

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago (15 children)

    AI is not complicated (hard but solvable with time and effort), it's complex(easy but numerous and their interactions make it hard)?

    sigmoid(aX+b) is not that complicated

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago (14 children)

    That wasn‘t even the argument. The argument is that AI is a resource waste; it uses too much power and water for what is a shit return.

    Who cares how complicated it is.

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  • [–] -3 points 9 months ago (13 children)

    once it no longer needs massive amounts of expensive resources, what then?

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago* (2 children)

    Its already here, it's called the average Redditor.

    This isn't a joke. You already know what a low power LLM is, its a 40W human brain with high school level knowledge and a confident human tone writing on Reddit. But not the entire brain, only the natural language and superficial knowledge part... Meaning having the human is better anyway.

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  • [–] 3 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    high school level knowledge

    I love your optimism. These are the people who add an S to mass nouns like 'email', and who pluralize with an apostrophe. A successful high-school education isn't being shown, there, at least in terms of literacy (admittedly, we are represented by how we write).

    Is it correlative, in that many Redditors live in a country where 54% of them do not communicate above a 6th-grade level?

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  • [–] 3 points 9 months ago (9 children)

    That’s a massive assumption on your part. Exactly how do you propose that the entire architecture of LLM’s be restructured to not be the massive resource hog desperately seeking a profit that it is? Mind you, it’s shit now and you’re basing your argument on a hypothetical “maybe”, like maybe you’ll win a massive lottery payout tomorrow.

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  • [–] -1 points 9 months ago* (8 children)

    You make a compelling argument, it will never be achieved. I am convinced. Not one human is capable, nor are one thousand humans. It is unsurmountable mountain.

    It is the year 5000. Aliens look at the wreckage of earth. They see what little remains of our meager existence. The goal that haunted humanity for all eternity, a doomed plan from the start, only ever resulting in certain failure? making chatbots use as much energy as a gaming rig. It never happened. It was... impossible.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago (7 children)

    Oh good. If you resort to hyperbole to prove your argument you’ve already lost.

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  • [–] -1 points 9 months ago* (6 children)

    Okay, since its obviously hyperbole that it isnt possible, its a potential outcome so lets return to my original question (deemed a massive assumption on my part by you):

    once it no longer needs massive amounts of expensive resources, what then?

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  • [–] 3 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    So copypasting your question does what…? If you can’t be bothered to think through my answer and think of a different question, then go re-read the answer I already gave you.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago* (4 children)

    Okay, its called a hypothetical, which you ignored. I therefore ignored your bad faith attempt at diverting the discussion at hand. Hypothetically, what happens when it is energy efficient? Its not impossible. I am only saying, sure do whatever you gotta do to regulate ai now, but it will eventually get there, and then what?

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago (2 children)

    Then, hyperbolically, and hypothetically, the entire electronic and computing world is massively changed and not just AI. Because such a change wouldn’t be limited to AI’s use. I wish you wouldn’t keep playing with the conditions of the argument myopically in an attempt to be right. If you don’t like someone criticizing hyperbole and hypotheticals, don’t use them.

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  • [–] 18 points 9 months ago
    [–] 14 points 9 months ago

    I love that for him.

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  • [–] 13 points 9 months ago

    Pop. Pop. Pop. Pop. 🤞

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  • [–] 11 points 9 months ago

    I mean, they could shut down most of their shit tomorrow and still rake in twenty billion a quarter for the foreseeable future. Because businesses are stupid and pay for it.

    He wants more adoption pre-bubblepop, but he’ll probably be the only one besides NVIDIA to actually make money on it. Eventually.

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    He is nervous because the two groups that they count on to reliably buy their shit, gamers and corporations, are seriously looking into the readily available free alternatives. If they lose them chasing AI, Microsoft is done. They have no way to recover from that.

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago

    honestly if the technology is lightweight to run on ordinary PC, I'd have tinkered with it long ago. I did try once but it's pretty slow to generate texts on my laptop, I quickly lost interest.

    But also the typical implementation of the tech is built on cloud, locked behind registration, is enough to turn me off. It's just like any other free useful tools but works via web that requires login, so I never bother to try.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago
    [–] 3 points 9 months ago

    He is not on the list of people who get to "transcend"? Remember, they want to exterminate humanity.

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