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[–] 33 points 9 months ago (2 children)

If you all haven't already, the next few days is a great time to rebalance your retirement accounts. Stop investing in US federal bonds and focus on international mutual funds and (if available) state and local mutual funds.

I rebalanced last year and my IRA is doing fantastic. (Not today but overall)

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  • [–] 33 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    As an American I'm all for this. We need to feel harsh pain if we're ever to correct our trajectory.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    This seems to be a common ideology. It seems to have the idea that American Exceptionalism needs a humbling dose of economic collapse, and then all will be good. The thing is, I don’t completely buy the “and then all will be good” part. There are far too many rich twats standing at the ready to purchase up any remaining stable assets, while the average joe struggles to afford even basic needs. Is that really the pain that America needs for it to learn its lesson? Especially when the boundaries between private money and politics are so thin and blurry, what benefit can you see from further enriching the oligarchs of the west?

    I would expect an economic collapse to be a fatal blow, by this point, to the way of life that Americans and American immigrants had long sought after: the chance to get ahead in life. Its a wealth transfer. Far less humbling than it is completely destructive, and you’ve got to ask what the world looks like from that point forward. How do you manage a US that looks a little more like new Russia than the old US?

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    $100 million is all it takes?!

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  • [–] 58 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    I hope not, but sometimes it only takes one match to start an inferno.

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  • [–] 25 points 9 months ago

    Most countries probably had no playbook for dealing with a rogue US administration. They're still looking for all the ways they have leverage over us and while no single country could probably bring us to our knees (well, except ourselves) they could definitely band together and send us back to the Great Depression era.

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  • [–] 63 points 9 months ago* (8 children)

    That is like, barely any.

    Daily trading volume of US treasuries is ~900 billion (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/whats-going-on-in-the-us-treasury-market-and-why-does-it-matter/).

    Thats 0.00002% of treasuries traded in a single day.

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  • [–] [S] 125 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (3 children)

    Its not much numerically, but this is the first time a foreign holder of bonds has publicly announced they no longer have faith in the credit of the United States.

    That is a big headline in the financial world. The entire international finance market is currently reassessing the stability of the US in a negative light. The only way out from here is down.

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  • [–] 22 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Now if Japan decided to offload on the other hand...

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  • [–] 15 points 9 months ago

    When you hear reported [Japan] owns [$x.xx] in US Treasuries, that figure isn't a monolith. The Japanese government owns some, and Japanese corporations own some, and the Japanese people individually own some, and more. It would have to be a collective effort, and there would realistically need to be a financially sound alternative place for them to safely park their money

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  • [–] 3 points 9 months ago

    My thought exactly. But in adding to your contextual contribution:

    This is a really small and rather obscure pension fund for academics, which has a elitarian focus on being sustainable. Don't get me wrong, even if all Danish pension funds dumped all their US federal bonds in a day it wouldn't register in the price.

    We need to bring the Norwegian oil trust in on this.

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  • [–] 18 points 9 months ago

    lol. Here we go. Here we fucking go!

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  • [+] 6 points 9 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] [S] 23 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    T notes being up is a bad thing.

    Bond yields increasing means that the cost of getting debt is increasing for the US. Higher yields means that bond holders think there is more risk that the bond won't be paid back and want more interest rate. Same effect as a 550 credit score and an 800 credit score person applying for the same car loan. The 550 is gonna get a 21% loan and the 800 is going to get a like 10% loan. The lower credit score means they are more risky to loan to as they might default, so the interest rates are higher to compensate.

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago

    There's a reason Buffet sold so much of Berkshire's stocks over the last year. I wouldn't be holding anything of value in the US. I moved my IRA account totally over to overseas investments when this jackass came around the first time. I never moved it back.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago

    but muh economyz!

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  • 48 comments in c/world@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 137 points 9 months ago (6 children)

    Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys because of finance concerns as Denmark spars with President Donald Trump over his threats to take over Greenland.

    Oooof. They no longer trust the US government to be a safe or friendly place to keep their money.

    Let the ripple effect begin!

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  • [–] 28 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    That's what this is, a shot across the bow. 100mm is nothing

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  • [–] 36 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    Seriously, that’s only 10cm.

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  • [–] 45 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

    Wouldn't surprise me if the Norwegian pension fund is looking into the same. They do, however, work slow. We'll see if Jonas Gahr Støre continues to receive the stupidest spam imaginable.

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  • [–] 40 points 9 months ago (16 children)

    They are right to do so. But also, this is a market measured in trillions

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  • [–] 56 points 9 months ago (15 children)

    The fact that someone stood up and said “we do not trust the honor of the US to fulfill a debt” is important. We’ll see how much of an impact that actually has, but my kneejerk reaction is that it was meaningful.

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago* (14 children)

    my kneejerk reaction

    :-/

    The global market will pounce on $100M in underpriced Treasuries.

    A better question is what the Danes plan to replace the reserves with. Now would be a cool time to roll out EuroBonds.

    That said...

    Schelde chiefly cited the ballooning debt bill facing the U.S. after decades of government overspending.

    This is, has, and will continue to be a dumb reason to sell US Treasuries. The Bond Vigilantes always lose their shirts in the end.

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  • [–] 13 points 9 months ago (13 children)

    Do you assume that a collapse of the US economy is impossible?

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  • [–] -3 points 9 months ago (12 children)

    It's highly unlikely under current conditions

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago (10 children)

    What conditions would be needed to make it likely?

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    Not OP, but first and foremost, on this bond thing, countries are going to have to be willing to take a beating in their own economies.

    Selling off bonds is like Elon selling off Tesla. The worth/wealth disappears if the market is flooded with paper.

    Another condition is in our face: The Buffett Index, which is total stock market value vs. GDP. We topped 200% for the first time a couple of weeks ago. It was around 130% in 1929 and 2008. Most of that bullshit money is in AI. We got real problems.

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  • [–] 0 points 9 months ago (7 children)

    Quite a few. But, just for starters, you'd need the Federal Reserve to turn off the unlimited money spigot.

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  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    I don't think that needs to happen, if you get into a hyperinflation situation, right? And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago* (1 child)

    you get into a hyperinflation situation, right?

    You need a sharp drop in available commodities, services, and investments to achieve hyperinflation. It's a phenomenon mostly confined to countries trapped under sanctions or trading in very low volume circulation currency.

    The US petrodollar balances supply of money against supply of oil (and other major benchmarks - US real estate, US financial debts, etc). This guarantees a strong global demand for dollars, even (perhaps especially, with respect to debt) during downturns.

    And Trump and co have been doing a lot to destroy the underlying productivity of the us economy over the last year.

    He's been undermining the global trade economy. But it's a big rock and even the President only has a small hammer.

    What has historically triggered big contractions in the US economy has been large scale debt defaults - '20 COVID induced oil price shock, '14 government shutdown, '08 Lehman/AIG massive fraud, '01 Enron/Worldcomm fraud, '87 S&L fraud + oil price shock, etc - all resulted in industry wide credit failures on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars.

    What rapidly ended these rescissions was direct intervention by the federal reserve, flooding the financial sector with money and devaluing all that bad debt.

    Trump's a dummy, but he knows this One Neat Trick.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    OK, that makes sense. Thanks for the long explainer.

    I think the AI bubble does feel a lot like the GFC. My understanding is that the amount of leveraging is much higher than pre-gfc, too. And I'm utterly unconvinced that genAI has much real underlying value across most industries (other than some niches like copywriting, and some simple coding tasks)

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    Read all your comments, would like your take on the Buffett Index topping 200% for the first time (total stock market value vs. GDP). It was around 130% in 1929 and 2008.

    Considering the disproportionate amount of stocks in AI, and, so far, no clear path to investors seeing a return, I'm scared shitless.

    What's your take on that bit?

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    would like your take on the Buffett Index topping 200% for the first time (total stock market value vs. GDP). It was around 130% in 1929 and 2008.

    I mean, Berkshire itself is trading at 15 p/e. So if you take the index seriously, it's a good place to shelter your money when the storm hits.

    But Buffet was a value investor and we're in a growth investor economy. I wouldn't say the index is a good indicator of a pending crash any more than it was three years ago.

    Considering the disproportionate amount of stocks in AI, and, so far, no clear path to investors seeing a return, I’m scared shitless.

    Bulls make money

    Bears make money

    Pigs get slaughtered

    Diversify your portfolio, understand why you think an investment has a bright future (and when that future has dimmed), don't try to time the market, and don't beat yourself up if you're wrong.

    I don't see anything in this market to be afraid of. I see a plethora of opportunities to generate healthy returns long term.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    I have no investments. Cashed out what little I had over the past two years of unemployment.

    But you have a point in looking to opportunities. Always ways to profit from change and crisis. I'm more worried about the overall health of our individual investments. People usually aren't hustling their money around. Most simply contribute to their Roth or IRA or whatever and let the market play out over decades, just as we were taught.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    Most simply contribute to their Roth or IRA or whatever and let the market play out over decades, just as we were taught.

    Long term, it has been a smart play. Very hard to find a historical milestone where a $1 invested in Year X is worth less than year X+10, much less X+40

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  • [–] 39 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    I was expecting the AI bubble to burst and then take down the US economy, but perhaps it's going to be the other way around..

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  • [–] 36 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    I will also be selling my treasuries, I won't tell the exact amount but it's "slightly" less than 100 million.

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  • [–] 18 points 9 months ago

    I actually rebalanced my 401k tonight and dumped all my bond holdings and most domestic stocks just an hour or so ago. (I did keep the index funds, though.)
    Swapping most of the allocations over to foreign stocks (showing about 35% yearly returns, vs the still good 14% I was netting before). I also threw a small chunk into a gold commodity index fund, which is showing 150% growth in the last year. Risky, but what am I going to do? Live long enough to grow old? In this economy?

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  • [–] 30 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    Now you are dong something they will notice. The number needs to be much higher.

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  • [–] 44 points 9 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago (8 children)

    This is an aside, but why is CNBC misspelling "treasuries"?

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  • [–] -4 points 9 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 11 points 9 months ago

    I switched my retirement portfolio bond allocations into precious metal indexes last year in anticipation for something like this. It turned into my best performing asset.

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  • [–] 9 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    We are no where near maxxing out credit, which will happen before these malicious clowns lose control.

    I suspect at that point they will print money to pay debt and start a hyper inflation.

    But lost in all this is stated inflation higher than the cpi, understated on purpose several times in the last half century.

    By 2008 inflation was 5 to 8 percent on average under the old measure. Around 3 on the new.

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  • [–] 7 points 9 months ago

    Let's all sell up! There are ways to peacefully protest with robust impact.

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  • 7 comments in c/world view that post
    [–] 31 points 9 months ago

    Beginning of the end of the US Dollar as a reserve currency.

    We Americans are so fucking boned.

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  • [–] 12 points 9 months ago (3 children)

    I wonder if other countries will be following suit, or what. This seems like a drop in the bucket.

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  • [–] 11 points 9 months ago (2 children)

    It's more an indication of the way the wind is blowing than a big financial move.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago (1 child)

    I see it more as a mild threat. They're making sure that everyone knows what kind of non-military power the US is up against right now. Simply announcing this small sale will probably cause outsized ripples in the bond and exchange markets. Business leaders that previously didn't care will now start pressuring the administration to back down because they'll feel those ripples and recognize the threat.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    Given that the administration particularly called out asking Europe not to sell off USA assets before the about face on Greenland, I'd say the threat worked.

    However, I don't think it's an empty threat that is just resolved like that. The USA has been on a downward trust trajectory. They got away with bullying behaviour when they also helped keep peace and stability. Now that's gone, the benefits are outweighed by the negatives. That will take decades to win back after Trump. The electorate always gets the result they deserve.

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  • [–] 6 points 9 months ago*

    There’s 170,000 people enrolled in that particular pension fund meaning participants invested $590 in UST on average. Not exactly a mind blowing amount but still nice.

    Divesting because of US being too indebted is bollocks of course, for now US is still the issuer of their currency and they get effectively unlimited money as long as USD remains global trade currency (which means killing own production but Trump isn’t really all that successful at restarting it so far).

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    I can't help but think that, like the Nazis paying off the MEFO Bills with stolen Austrian, Czech, and tooth gold, the theft of Venezuelan oil is about papering over the cracks in paying for a bloated war machine.

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