The Oroborous can do nothing but consume its own tail. It will never understand why this happens. Billionaires should not exist.

Can't afford a nest, yeah the birds aren't gonna lay the eggs.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-march-2025/

New Zealand is at roughly 1.6, and our housing market is pretty cooked as well, although the situation is improving.

So yeah, that tracks.

Don't forget that even doing the multi generation home means that there is little space for human expansion there. So while I grew up with my great grandparents the room they used up is now my siblings. Even in my cousins house they only got their own room because their great grandma died and grandfather died. Then my other cousin took over the 2 car garage and turned it into a living suite. And the Basement? Last cousin took it over. These are just adults that cant do any better. How are they going to find room for kids unless someone else dies?

Where is the new study? They have sources at the bottom but which one is the actual study they talk about?

CTRL+F for "Study" only has the word in the title and in three links in the sources, all of which are from several years ago. I realise it's medium.com, which usually sucks, not real journalism, but how can you make a write-up about a purported new study without mentioning or linking to it once in the article...

It's nice to see an actually study confirming what I have been saying for years now.

The only surprise for me is that this is happening in places like Germany which have higher salaries rather than only places like my native Portugal which for Europe has shit salaries.

I have a Finance Industry background and lived in Britain for a decade before I came back to my home country, and Britain was about 5 - 10 years ahead in their realestate bubble, so it was painfully obvious to me when I arrive in Portugal that high house prices (in a country with shit salaries in European terms) was causing the country to have one of the most aged populations in the World:

• Houses are too expensive so young people in their early career can't afford them, hence continue living with their parents much longer (the average age to leave one's parents' home in Portugal is 34!!!) thus delaying starting a family.
• Even after they start a family, to actually have a child, then need a bigger place to have a bedroom for the child, and for a second child they often need to get an even bigger place (if it's a boy and a girl they need 3 bedrooms, or somebody is going to be sleeping in the living room) were again high realestate prices are an impediment.
• Then there's the problem that housing costs are so out of line with salaries that even the middle class needs TWO working adults to pay for the rent or mortgage of a one bedroom in any large city (which is usually were the best paying jobs are). Childbirth means one person being out of the workplace for at best 6 months, which isn't too bad in Europe for people with good jobs as they get paid time off (though it affects people's career progression), except that work legislation has in the last 3 decades been "liberalized" so that most young people don't have an actual job - they have totally insecure gigs or at best 3 or 6 months contracts - so childbirth means losing one income from work for 6 months, leaving only ONE adult earning to pay for rent or mortgage to which now add the costs of having a child.
• Then on top of this come the costs of raising a child.
• Meawhile there are the risks for would be mothers and their would be babies as they get closer to their menopause as it becomes more risky for women to have children, something which certainly at least the more well educated couples consider.

So because of high housing costs relative to incomes and insecure employment (for certain early in one's career, for some for a lot longer), people massivelly delay just starting a family until they can earn enough to actually be able to afford their own home, then delay the having their first child until they can actually afford the time off work for one member of a couple or having climbed enough the career path that they have an actual secure job were they get paid time off AND until they can afford the costs of raising a child AND can afford to move to a house with a room for the child (or at least have a prospect of being able to do so in a few years before the child reachers their teenage years).

So all this so that in their mid to late 30s they can have just 1 child.

Then for the second child it's yet more "climb the career until you can afford to raise more children" AND "earn enough to upsize your home to have one more room" and at this point people start worring about the risks for the mother and the baby of "having a child in your 40s", plus people are getting a bit fed up with the decades of nothing but fighting (extra nasty in Portugal which has a "working long hours" culture) just to be able to get another kid

So most people give up on having a 2nd child - the overwhelming majority of couples I know here only have 1 child.

Remember, 2 children per person is still below the 2.4 average need to merely maintain population size.

(Oh, and on the "funny" side, all this shit then leads to government choosing to import immigrants "because working-age population is falling" which then leads to other problems due to the higher rate of cultural misunderstanding and collisions when people with different cultures arrive in large numbers without enough time to integrate, all of which boosts the anti-immigration Far-Right)

The solution, IMHO is two fold:

• Build lots and lots of public housing which is sold or rented at cost. This was actually what happened in the 80s and it worked. Its what works in places like Singapore (which is a fucking Authocracy and yet doesn't have this problem of Western "Democracies"). This attacks the problem of low supply and excessive margins on the Supply side of the Supply-Demand inballance in realestate.
• Forbid ownership of realestate in Portugal for non-resident people or companies and locally registered companies where the controlling interest is directly or indirectly in the hands of non-residents. This is absolutelly compatible with EU regulations (and, I believe, Denmark already does it) since it does not discriminate on nationality, only residency (which means that Portuguese nationals who are non-residents get the same treatment). Also realestate tax should increase exponentially with the number of residential properties somebody owns. This attacks the problem on the Demand side of the Supply-Demand inballance in realestate.

I'd also bring in the ripple effect of this. We know there's not enough children being born.

There's not going to be a workforce to pay our pensions when we get old. I'm less likely to spend my money on a dependant, when I should be buying property as a commodity so that I can have means to live at old age.

This is such an important finding if true. Does anyone have an idea about how reliable this is/ know of other news outlets reporting this as definitively?

I see sources which corroborate the thesis here and I'm asking if there are other news or policy outlets which agree with this.

Reason I think this is important is because falling birthrates are blamed on all kinds of reasons which are typical societal scapegoats. I've heard everything from immigrants, to women having jobs, to porn, and even videogames. I'd love it of we could focus on things that actually matter

I have a single child and I regret bringing him into this hell hole planet. I strongly believe that we are on the verge of ecological ruin. The oceans are overfished and becoming dangerously acidic. Drinkable water is being depleted. Soil nutrients are declining. Fascism is rising rapidly. We're on the wrong side of the Hubbert curve, so everything is going to get progressively more expensive. Food production will drop as we lose the inputs for the Haber Bosch process. The decline will not be linear and some of the tipping points are already in our rear view mirror.

The cost of housing is just one of many reasons why people might not want children, although normalcy bias hides the truth from many.

Turns out people don't want kids when they're stuck in their moms basement with no future

Wow, there was no way to see this one coming.

Not only pay! Also create a safe and reliable social security net that would effectively kick in in case of need! Also build low income but good quality housing close to the jobs that are paying you and close to social contacts. Also install a minimum wage that is actually meaningful to sustain a family on 1.5 salary, if not even higher.

That’s why saying “I don’t care about politics” is shortsighted. Politics enters constantly into your life and influences your options and decisions.

No shit Sherlock

We never got the chance to have kids but all my family and friends have a bunch. All I see is how everyone is struggling to get by. The only way this current generation can survive is if their parents help them out with everything .... housing, food, employment, education, health, child care. If you don't have parents who are able or capable, you're not going to make it.

In the 80s and 90s it was possible to get by on your own and make a bit of a living if you worked hard enough. It's not possible any more and I have no idea how any one under the age of 20 can survive the future without wealthy parents. And the scary part is that those wealthy parents are dying off ... in the next 20/30 years, those wealthy parents are expecting to have their kids look after them in old age. Those kids will be debt looking after themselves in 20/30 years and either won't have the energy or money to look after their parents.

I'm screwed as far as I can see ... we don't have any dependants so by the time I get old and feeble, I'm going to be pushed into a corner of some dumpy old age home and left to die in my own dirty diaper.

And when you smash their nests, birds don’t lay eggs

Oh cool, another blindingly obvious study that is going to be ignored by everyone with the power do do anything about it.

Yes, we are aware. Now... fix it?

“I'd like to raise a family. Let's see what a 4-bedroom condo costs in the city with decent schools and transit. 2 000 000 USD? Hah. No kids it is, then.”

I like data.

Who could ever have guessed that family’s need proper housing that’s affordable.

Who could have ever predicted that 2 square centimeters at 9 quintillion dollars is a disaster in the making?

No way anyone one could have seen this coming with the multiple looming catastrophes that could upend life!

see also: it used to be possible to support a family on one income

Lowering birthrates is a fascinating problem

It's a global problem that has affected nearly every country. There are so many different explanations going around, and we can always compare the explanations to different countries and their birthrate

For the commodification of housing as an explanation, I can think of examples in favor of it, and that contradict it. It's a more compelling explanation than others though

In favor: Japan was the first country to reach extreme housing commodification levels. For about 30 years from the mid-50s to the mid 80s, Japanese housing and real estate values exploded. Very famously, the land under the imperial palace was worth more than all the real estate in California combined. Japan followed this period about 20 years later by becoming the first country to start experiencing significant birthrate decline

China could be a good example here. Their birthrate has collapsed at the same time their housing did, but the time frame is completely different than Japan. It's tough to use them both as an example when they have such drastically different apparent results

Against it: The countries generally considered to have the worst housing crisis at the moment are New Zealand, Canada, and the US, yet the countries with the lowest birth rates are South Korea and Taiwan. Housing in South Korea and Taiwan is moderately commodified, but certainly nowhere near as badly as other countries

Japan can also be an argument against it here. For the past 20+ years, housing has been extremely cheap in Japan. They thoroughly solved their housing crisis. If housing commodification is a driving cause for lowering birthrates, why has it only had a small rebound?

As an aside, Japan solved their housing crisis by implementing an inheritance tax (which took 20+ years to really have an impact), and completely re-working zoning to be permissive by default after the bubble popped. More countries should do that, because housing is now cheaper in central Tokyo than it is in "cheap" mid-size American towns like Fargo, ND

"The fertility collapse in the West is not primarily about women choosing careers over children, nor about cultural rejection of parenthood, nor about access to contraception. These factors exist, but they explain only part of the story."

Yeah, except you can't tell how big impact each of those factors has. Or maybe you can but this article doesn't say it. They simply list bunch of factors and claim that housing is the most important one without providing any evidence. All they really show is that housing is a factor which I don't think anyone sane was arguing against.

Getting more expensive to live now.

link to the original study

The problem is wages, not housing prices.

What do they even mean by commodification? There's literally houses out there but the prices are ridiculous and others are just holding onto property without listing them. The housing is there. They're just rigging it and gatekeeping the rest of us.