why is it very likely to do that? we have no evidence to believe this is true at all and several decades of slow, plodding ai research that suggests real improvement comes incrementally like in other research areas.

to me, your suggestion sounds like the result of the logical leaps made by yudkovsky and the people on his forums

Then it doesn't make sense to include LLMs in "AI." We aren't even close to turning runs into propellers or rockets, LLMs will not get there.

The problem with that is they can't actually point to a metric where when the number goes beyond that point we'll have ASI. I've seen graphs where they have a dotted line that says ape intelligence, and then a bit higher up it has a dotted line that says human intelligence. But there's no meaningful way they can possibly have actually placed human intelligence on a graph of AI complexity, because brains are not AI so they shouldn't even be on the graph.

So even if things increase exponentially there's no way they can possibly know how long until we get AGI.

Killer drones already used AI to automatically find their targets pre-2021…

And AI porn was made as soon as generative AI was able to produce pictures…

But of course, if general AI is controllable in any way, it definitely will be miss-used for the two activities OC listed.

But giving all the resources to LLMs slows/prevents those useful applications of AI.

I'm trying to guess what industries might do well if the AI bubble does burst. I imagine there will be huge AI datacenters filled with so-called "GPUs" that can no longer even do graphics. They don't even do floating point calculations anymore, and I've heard their integer matrix calculations are lossy. So, basically useless for almost everything other than AI.

One of the few industries that I think might benefit is pharmaceuticals. I think maybe these GPUs can still do protein folding. If so, the pharma industry might suddenly have access to AI resources at pennies on the dollar.

down in Ukraine we have a dozen or so image analysis projects that can't catch a break because all investors can think about are either swarm drones (quite understandably) or LLM nothingburgers that burn through money and dissipate every nine months. Meanwhile those image analysis projects manage to progress on what is basically scraps and leftovers.

Multimodal LLMs are definitely a thing, though.

they’re evil sociopaths who are comfortable enslaving a sentient being for profit.

i mean, look what is happening in the united states. that would be completely unsurprising to happen here.

It's DEFINITELY both.

Good thing I said "LLM" not "AI".

That's how the Nobel prize always works. The price goes to whoever managed to cross the finishing line, not all the thousands of scientists before who conducted preliminary research.

This year has just been a constant stream of examples why capitalism is stupid. Machine learning has a lot of utility in medical research. Imagine if it were deployed in such a way to benefit society instead of to maximize techbro's profit.

I would totally do that if I could. I looked into Only Fans and something like 1% of dudes make any money and the upkeep is a lot of work.

Google recaptcha? They literally talk about this publically. It's in their mission statement or whatever. It's used to train other kinds of model too.

i'd rather lucid dream i have healthcare my friend. then i can use my care bear stare laser beam to apply vengeance to incompetent healthcare providers and administrators such that they will never know what it is like to satiate their hunger again. then ride a giant flying tardigrade named Hairy Terry off into the sunset.

LLMs only let me imagine it, not (from my perception) experience it. and remember, no crimes without Hairy Terry on lookout

What espionage is an AI simp going to be able to conduct

The AI simp's you are referring to isn't the tech billionaires who've managed useful technology development? It's an insult to users. Incels can't know anything sensitive?

they’re going this route so they have some profit

Your data and secrets is monetizable, and has been traded for last 20 years. The biggest AI customer is going to be US government's military/disinformation/destabilization departments. If you tell your AI gf that anti fa seems more reasonable than pro fa, then she will gift you an israeli pager.

Sure, OpenAI can get $20/month from you to just be your bff, as bff 1.0. OpenAI's real BFF customer, will start giving it ideas on how 2.0 can make OpenAI more money.

Supposedly, there was a leak from META where they were directing team to romanticize AI engagement with 8 year olds for better engagement numbers. Having unlimited time with you, is a powerful tool to shape ideology and loyalties. Media has traditionally programmed the masses after it replaced churches. You denying that absolute control isn't a goal when the tool is ideally suited for it is not a good look for you.

Yes, selling the actual cure would be profitable...but an LLM would only ever provide the text for synthesizing it but none of the extensive testing, licensing, or manufacturing, etc.. An existing pharmaceutical company would have to believe the LLM and then front the costs for the development, testing, and manufacture...which constitutes a large proportion of the costs of bringing a treatment to market. Burning compute time on that is a waste of resources, especially when fleecing horny losers is available right now. It is just business.

That's a weird take! It makes much more money sense to sell long term subscriptions treatments, rather than a one time cure.

/s off course

I used to work in academic physics, and I currently work in data science. I am deeply familiar with both ends of the subject in question. LLMs are useful research tools because they speed up the reference finding and literature review process, not because they synthesize new information that does not need to be independently verified.

In the context of medical research, they could absolutely use LLMs to facilitate a literature search. What LLMs cannot do is hand researchers a proposed cure that they could sell to people. You still need to do the leg work of synthesizing the molecules, standardizing the process, industrializing it, patenting it, multiple rounds of testing on increasingly complex animals and eventually people, and then going through the drug approval process with the FDA and others. LLMs speed up the CHEAPEST and EASIEST part of the research process. That is why LLMs will not be handing us the cure for cancer.

facts