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[–] -3 points 1 year ago (12 children)

The thing about AI is that it is very likely to improve roughly exponentially¹. Yeah, it's building ladders right now, but once it starts turning rungs into propellers, the rockets won't be far behind.

Not saying it's there yet, or even 18/24/36 months out, just saying that the transition from "not there yet" to "top of the class" is going to whiz by when the time comes.

¹ Logistically, actually, but the upper limit is high enough that for practical purposes "exponential" is close enough for the near future.

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  • [–] 11 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    why is it very likely to do that? we have no evidence to believe this is true at all and several decades of slow, plodding ai research that suggests real improvement comes incrementally like in other research areas.

    to me, your suggestion sounds like the result of the logical leaps made by yudkovsky and the people on his forums

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  • [–] -2 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    Because AI can write programs? As it gets better at doing that, it can make AI's that are even better, etc etc. Positive feedback loops increase exponentially.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (4 children)

    AI can't write programs, at least not complex programs. The programs / functions it can write well are the ones that are the ones that are very well represented in the training data -- i.e. ultra simple functions or programs that have been written and re-written millions of times. What it can't do is anything truly innovative. In addition, it can't follow directions, it has no understanding of what it's doing, it doesn't understand the problem, it doesn't understand its solution to the problem.

    The only thing LLMs are able to do is create a believable simulation of what the solution to the problem might look like. Sometimes, if you're lucky, the simulation is realistic enough that the output actually works as a function or program. But, the more complex the problem, or the more distant from the training data, the less it's able to simulate something realistic.

    So, rather than building a ladder where the rungs turn into propellers, it's building one where the higher the ladder gets, the less the rungs actually look like rungs.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    As I said elsewhere, the AI probably isn't going to just be an LLM. It's probably gonna be a complex model that uses modules like LLMs to fulfill a compound task. But the exact architecture doesn't matter.

    We know that it can output code, which means we have a quantifiable metric to make it better at coding, and thousands of people are certainly trying. AI video was hot garbage 18 months ago, now it's basically perfect.

    It's not if we're going to get a decent coding AI, it's when.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    It's probably gonna be a complex model that uses modules like LLMs to fulfill a compound task.

    That sounds very hand-wavey. But, even the presence of LLMs in the mix suggests it isn't going to be very good at whatever it does, because LLMs are designed to fool humans into thinking something is realistic rather than actually doing something useful.

    We know that it can output code, which means we have a quantifiable metric to make it better at coding

    How so? Project managers have been working for decades to quantify code, and haven't managed to make any progress at it.

    It's not if we're going to get a decent coding AI, it's when.

    The year 30,000 AD doesn't count.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (1 child)

    LLMs are designed to fool humans into thinking something is realistic rather than actually doing something useful.

    So closer to average human intelligence than it would appear. I don't know why people keep insisting that confidently making things up and repeating things blindly is somehow distinct from the average human intelligence.

    But more seriously, this whole mindset is based on a stagnation in development that I'm just not seeing. I think it was Stanford recently released a paper on a new architecture they developed that has serious promise.

    How so? Project managers have been working for decades to quantify code, and haven't managed to make any progress at it.

    I think you misunderstand me. The metric is the code. We can look at the code, see what kind of mistakes it's making, and then alter the model to try to be better. That is an iterative process.

    The year 30,000 AD doesn't count.

    Sure. Maybe it's 30,000AD. Maybe it's next month. We don't know when the breakthrough that kicks off massive improvement is going to hit, or even what it will be. Every new development could be the big one.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    So closer to average human intelligence than it would appear

    No, zero intelligence.

    It's like how people are fooled by optical illusions. It doesn't mean optical illusions are smart, it just means that they tickle a part of the brain that sees patterns.

    a paper on a new architecture they developed that has serious promise

    Oooh, a new architecture and serious promise? Wow! You should invest!

    The metric is the code. We can look at the code, see what kind of mistakes it's making

    No, we can't. That's the whole point. If that were possible, then companies could objectively determine who their best programmers were, and that's a holy grail they've been chasing for decades. It's just not possible.

    and then alter the model to try to be better

    Nobody knows how to alter the model to try to be better. That's why multi-billion dollar companies are releasing new models that are worse than their previous models.

    Maybe it's next month

    It's definitely not next month, or next year, or next century. Nobody has any idea how to get to actual intelligence, and despite the hype progress is as slow as ever.

    Every new development could be the big one

    Keep drinking that kool-aid.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    the problem is that ai's are trained on programs that humans have written. At best the llm architectures it creates will be similar to the state of the art that humans have created at that point.

    however, even more important than the architecture of an ai model is the training data that it is trained on. If we start including ai-generated programs in this data, we will quickly observe model collapse: performance of models tend to get worse as more ai-generated data is included in the training data.

    rather than AIs generating ever smarter new AIs, the more likely result is that we can't scrape new quality datasets as they've all been contaminated with llm-generated data that will only reduce model performance

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    The problem with that is they can't actually point to a metric where when the number goes beyond that point we'll have ASI. I've seen graphs where they have a dotted line that says ape intelligence, and then a bit higher up it has a dotted line that says human intelligence. But there's no meaningful way they can possibly have actually placed human intelligence on a graph of AI complexity, because brains are not AI so they shouldn't even be on the graph.

    So even if things increase exponentially there's no way they can possibly know how long until we get AGI.

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