So closer to average human intelligence than it would appear

No, zero intelligence.

It's like how people are fooled by optical illusions. It doesn't mean optical illusions are smart, it just means that they tickle a part of the brain that sees patterns.

a paper on a new architecture they developed that has serious promise

Oooh, a new architecture and serious promise? Wow! You should invest!

The metric is the code. We can look at the code, see what kind of mistakes it's making

No, we can't. That's the whole point. If that were possible, then companies could objectively determine who their best programmers were, and that's a holy grail they've been chasing for decades. It's just not possible.

and then alter the model to try to be better

Nobody knows how to alter the model to try to be better. That's why multi-billion dollar companies are releasing new models that are worse than their previous models.

Maybe it's next month

It's definitely not next month, or next year, or next century. Nobody has any idea how to get to actual intelligence, and despite the hype progress is as slow as ever.

Every new development could be the big one

Keep drinking that kool-aid.