China is “set up to hit grand slams,” longtime Chinese energy expert David Fishman told Fortune. “The U.S., at best, can get on base.”

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[–] 101 points 1 year ago

It's incredibly surprising that neglecting infrastructure investments for a mere few decades would have such an effect.

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  • [–] 71 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    The race to what?

    THE RACE TO WHAT MOTHERFUCKERS?

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  • [–] 16 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    The thinking goes 'if we don't build Skynet first, then China will, so it's better we be in charge of the Terminators...'

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    There's a school of thought that the first to get AGI/superintelligence can never be caught.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    And it's probably correct, but to put it in context, Stephen Hawking thought AGI was the greatest threat we will face in the not-to-distant future, and Daniel Schmachtenberger had pointed out that all the countries basically agree with this assessment, but (to synthesize both of our points), everyone is rushing to a future we nobody wants because it's a 21st century tragedy of the Commons, is we don't do it someone else will first...

    Best case scenario, great for one country, terrible for everyone else. Worst case scenario, bad for everyone.

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  • [–] 66 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Articles like this are being pushed by AI CEOs and investors to force the US public to pay for grid upgrades to support their profit making. Socialize costs, privatize profits.

    If, like most Americans, you've noticed an increase in your electric rates in the last year it is in no small part due to the increased demand put on the system by AI data centers. You're already paying more to prop this shit up because they're chasing gains with no regard to efficiency.

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  • [–] 25 points 1 year ago

    To be fair though, pur grid is absolutely ass and held together by electrical tape and broken dreams. Because it turns out apending the 40 years gutting the public sector of everything useful and not doing proper maintainence left the US unable to adapt. I apend a lot of time in Lakewood Ohio, a trendy and high density suburb of Cleveland, and they have had weekly blackouts all year because First Energy (of corruption infamy) has refused to do the necessary upkeep.

    Privatizing our utilities was a mistake

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    Articles like this are being pushed by AI CEOs and investors to force the US public to pay for grid upgrades to support their profit making. Socialize costs, privatize profits.

    Tone of article is more about the hopeless situation for US. It correctly highlights China's humanist economics of abundance. The US, as the most corrupt country in the world, not only makes policy for insider trader benefits, but is also committed to climate terrorist interests, and climate terrorist only energy expansion.

    In China, renewables are framed as a cornerstone of the economy because they make sense economically and strategically, not because they carry moral weight.

    Even under Biden, war on Russia was designed to boost climate terrorism energy and capture of EU markets, including blatant sabotage of Nordstream, despite moral gesticulations supporting renewables.

    To your point, every media guest, will tell us that it is a national security priority as great as nuclear weapons dominance to support the achievement of Skynet even if all electricity consumers other than trillionaire tech companies face triple electricity costs. If we are not made miserable through absolute pillage for oligarchs, then China will win, is the propaganda manipulation.

    In truth, and best way to understand article, is that if you prioritize AI dominance over climate terrorism, then cheap Chinese energy (solar) and batteries is the path to quickly develop AI datacenters. Climate terrorism and consumer extortion profits is the greater priority of US policy, which infact dooms the US to lose at its Skynet utopia objective.

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  • [–] 67 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    “This is a stark contrast to the U.S., where AI growth is increasingly tied to debates over data center power consumption and grid limitations”

    Won't anyone rid us off this troublesome democracy, so that tech companies may grow in peace ?

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    You don't need to change your political system to have sound energy policies.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Well, yes, we 100% do. But the above about shedding democracy was a joke. America needs to majorly reform our system. First and foremost by ending first past the post and the stranglehold of the two party system it enables.

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  • [–] 26 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    China decided to end their dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

    The USA decided to double down on oil.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    China decided to end their dependence on fossil fuels, and I decided to retire by age 45. Me and China are about equally close to achieving our goals.

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  • [–] 25 points 1 year ago* (4 children)

    Coal use isn’t cast as a sign of villainy, as it would be among some circles in the U.S. – it’s simply seen as outdated. This pragmatic framing, Fishman argued, allows policymakers to focus on efficiency and results rather than political battles.

    There's truly something for western politicians to learn from this

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  • [–] 31 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    Also: China’s construction of new coal-power plants ‘reached 10-year high’ in 2024

    It doesn't seem like this "AI expert" knows a lot about anything. Perhaps he is too high on his own supply, getting all his knowledge from hallucinating chatbots.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    I don't think the GOP is racing to build coal plants. They just use coal as a political tool to win votes. And when they win, the idiots that think Republicans are going to save their coal jobs get what they deserved.

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  • [–] 24 points 1 year ago* (3 children)

    This is all based on the assumption that AI will need exponential power.

    It will not.

    • AI is a bubble.

    • Even if it isn't, fab capacity is limited.

    • The actual 'AI' market is racing to the bottom with smaller, task focused models.

    • A bunch of reproduced papers (like bitnet, and sparsity schemes) that reduce power exponentially are just waiting for someone to try a larger test.

    • They're slowly getting less 'dumbly implemented' so they can actually reference real info for tasks.

    • Alltogether... that means inference moves to smartphones and PCs.

    This is just the finance crowd parroting Altman. Not that the US doesnt need a better energy grid like China, but the justification (AI scaling) is built on lies that aren't going to happen.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    But! Zuck said they recently saw AI able to work on tasks that involve improving the software that manages AI! He said that means we are not far from super intelligence!

    the extrapolation these guys make without new paradigm’s in mind is evidence of a wall and bubble for me

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago*

    The irony is Zuck shuttered the absolute best asset they have: the Llama team.

    Over one experimental failure trying to copy Deepseek. Which, you know, is normal in research, but at the same time was a pretty conservative choice instead of trying a new paper.

    Zuck's a fickle coward who would say and do anything to hide his insecurity.

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  • While AI (as it is currently done) is a bubble,

    the article is still rather interesting. It discusses that China's grid is superior because it has state backing, instead of being privately owned (and therefore short-sighted). Which is true, and America has a lesson to learn from that, if it wants to have a part of the future.

    By the way, the same goes for public infrastructure and housing. The state should invest heavily in these and provide them efficiently as a community service long-term, instead of relying on private parties to take care of these needs.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    The lazy western capitalists being out-competed at their own game, you say?

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Yeah, it's crazy what you can do when you don't have to pay people, and you can instantly stomp out all dissent.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago

    I'm not suggesting that China is some utopia - quite the opposite in a number of respects. But what I am arguing is that privileged classes and groups in the west have captured control of the wider narrative and tipped the scales to their benefit; we've ended up with financialised economies focusing on rent extraction which are stagnant and unable to support true innovation.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    And what kind of "grand slam" are we talking about? I know whatever it is they want it real bad, but to you're average human being: is filing out tps reports with 90 percent accuracy really that important?

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    No worries. AI will figure out a way out of our energy mess by consuming Immense amounts of ener.... WAIT...

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    China has been ramping up building of coal power plants, many of which are operating at 50% capacity: https://lemmy.ca/post/49779092

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    coal and NG electricity production declined in 2024. Building new coal plants doesn't mean using them. Another 1tw of solar this year will reduce this further.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    That's right - that's what the article is pointing out, and what my comment was pointing out: that despite usage of 50% capacity on current coal plants they are still building more. They are building capacity for the long term - for AI data centers which are giant power consumers. Power generation and transmission capacity can't be built over night. That's where top-down planning comes in.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    China builds coal plants for resilience, and national security. Its possible assholes will cut off their NG supplies, and Hydro is not guaranteed every year. Still, at 1TW new solar per year (10000 coal turbines equivalent), that capacity rate will keep going down. It does mean that China has no power constraints for AI/datacenters, and then no constraints on more solar or chip manufacturing.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    I think Trump open war against them helps, I mean, if you cut them our of critical supply, you push them to develop their own, they're not stupid.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    A bad joke I recall from middle school was "there's always an Asian smarter than you" but I think there was something telling about kids thinking that. Clearly, there is some noticeable difference at the very least when comparing to the US. The US takes pride in mediocre scores while maintaining a very broken education system. I guess in that regard, perhaps their average scoring is a miracle in of itself. That doesn't mean the rest of the world can't do better but neither does it mean there aren't dumb people everywhere. Also not trying to justify the very immoral education culture other countries have (which can lead to self harm) but just saying, it's maybe obvious to see gaps when looking at the US in particular.

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