China is “set up to hit grand slams,” longtime Chinese energy expert David Fishman told Fortune. “The U.S., at best, can get on base.”

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[–] 24 points 1 year ago* (3 children)

This is all based on the assumption that AI will need exponential power.

It will not.

  • AI is a bubble.

  • Even if it isn't, fab capacity is limited.

  • The actual 'AI' market is racing to the bottom with smaller, task focused models.

  • A bunch of reproduced papers (like bitnet, and sparsity schemes) that reduce power exponentially are just waiting for someone to try a larger test.

  • They're slowly getting less 'dumbly implemented' so they can actually reference real info for tasks.

  • Alltogether... that means inference moves to smartphones and PCs.

This is just the finance crowd parroting Altman. Not that the US doesnt need a better energy grid like China, but the justification (AI scaling) is built on lies that aren't going to happen.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    But! Zuck said they recently saw AI able to work on tasks that involve improving the software that manages AI! He said that means we are not far from super intelligence!

    the extrapolation these guys make without new paradigm’s in mind is evidence of a wall and bubble for me

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago*

    The irony is Zuck shuttered the absolute best asset they have: the Llama team.

    Over one experimental failure trying to copy Deepseek. Which, you know, is normal in research, but at the same time was a pretty conservative choice instead of trying a new paper.

    Zuck's a fickle coward who would say and do anything to hide his insecurity.

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  • While AI (as it is currently done) is a bubble,

    the article is still rather interesting. It discusses that China's grid is superior because it has state backing, instead of being privately owned (and therefore short-sighted). Which is true, and America has a lesson to learn from that, if it wants to have a part of the future.

    By the way, the same goes for public infrastructure and housing. The state should invest heavily in these and provide them efficiently as a community service long-term, instead of relying on private parties to take care of these needs.

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