Man there is nothing we love more than counting our chickens before they hatch, huh?
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Don't listen to polls, don't let people keep you from voting to improve things, don't put it off...
VOTE!!!
Nah, it'll be alright. Plenty of people are voting and I have things to do. Besides, both parties suck anyhow so nothing's gonna change.
Literally what a coworker said to me today.
What well be funny is when it is a blue wave and nothing changes. They stilll let him do whatever he wants. Is that the tipping point?
Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol
He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.
All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.
Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren't paying attention.
EDIT to correct typo.
People have a hard time separating people's expertise from their general opinions. Nate Silver the talking head is kind of an idiot. But Nate Silver the election modeling expert is worth taking seriously.
Shut up and Nate and fuck Ezra Klein.
I'd like to point out that in an interview where Nate Silver came out looking like an arrogant ass, he predicted Trump would lose the last election.
“People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged
Especially Nate Silver's interpretation of them.
If so, I hope the media constantly and always mentions this, if not in the title, above the fold, in all articles related to donnie for the rest of his term.
ha oh is the coin flipping on the uniparty! that must mean theyre going to switch to the rainbow colored genocide bombs instead soon. "democracy"
The worst part of right before an election is all the accounts spamming "don't vote it doesn't matter" out of nowhere...
This doesn’t work when people can see the difference with their own eyes. Your talking points are out of date. Возвращайся домой — получишь новые указания.
Enjoy your "Both sides bot" tag on lemmy. Don't care if you're a bot or not, might as well be.
dont forget election night 2016 when every one thought it was over then
Indeed. But many pollsters (like Nate) acknowledged this huge miscalculation in hindsight, and have tried to dissect that and predict with that in mind.
In fact, the original source addresses this and discusses the topic extensively. It’s most of the interview:
I think Democrats have the emotional feeling that when there’s a polling error, it is against them. Because Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and just in general — polls actually have repeatedly underestimated Donald Trump. But is that true? And is it particularly true in midterms? Have polling errors been consistently against Democrats?
Probably not the end, but likely a shifting into a new phase. One where he'll simply ignore outcomes, rules, boundaries, orders. You know - like he always does. Except worse. Always, always, somehow....worse.
There's gonna be violence. And death. You're not getting him out of there except in a body bag.
Also Trump and Iran are now in an escalation trap. The Iran war is very likely to continue to escalate, and the odds increase if(when) Trump loses the mid terms.
They will use the war to try to stop the Democrats from investigating them by characterizing investigations as an attack on the troops, treason, etc...
Expanding their failed air campaign against Iran has no bearing on the committee investigations that Democratic majorities can use if the midterms go as expected. Quite the opposite - it will provide more exposure since most of what they're doing is not just immoral and ineffective, but totally illegal. Even after Pearl Harbor, the president sought congressional approval for the war against Japan. Trump the Fool fell prey to Netanyahu's scheme to do the dirty work for him, assuming it would be as effortless as the Venezuelan Job.
I agree it will continue, but what does escalation look like? Boots on the ground will be a bloodbath, even the vulgar talking yam understands that and it's why he hasn't done it yet. The first footage of slaughtered Marines and smouldering Abrams tanks would be an instant impeachment and such a brutal display of wasted american casualties might well be enough to get the 2/3 majority required to impeach a lame duck presidency. There are probably more Republicans too than we realize who would welcome a way to get rid of a Trump. Nobody expects him to leave peacefully in 2028, other than waiting for a sufficiently large stroke. He is an obese octogenarian rageaholic troll who is blocking their own futures as much as he is the decent portion of the world's path forward.
Good content, Nate Silver knows what he’s talking about, but why didn’t you link the original source?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nate-silver.html
It’s not paywalled. And mediaite is a questionable source, to the extent that even Wikipedia advises against citing them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Reliable_sources/Perennial_sources
It’s generally best practice, most ethical, and good information hygiene, to link the original source instead of a downstream “repost,” or at least to link it in the post text.
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