Public statements from spokesmen like Rutte always have a purpose.

There is a dreariness to this message - but take a step back. What are Russia and Ukraine's theories of victory at this point. This is a war of conquest for Russia - what they sit on now isn't worth what they have sacrificed. Russia's war plan right now is two parts:

• 1. Infantry infiltration/infestation
• 2. Stand-off Terror bombing
• 3. Repeat until Ukraine gives you something to make it stop

That's not a great plan. Two big problems:

#1 might work for infiltration, but it doesn't work as an occupation strategy. Occupation troops don't live in blasted puddles of rainwater and charred concrete rubble. They live in barracks and conquered territory needs to be peaceful enough to merit economic activity.

#2 has never been successful in history at achieving strategic goals. Ask the americans how it's going in Iran right now with a war of long range bombardment. Russia wants regime change and conquest of enough territory to justify what they've lost. Well...they want more than that, but even THEY seem to finally understand that ain't happening. Even the strategic bombing campaigns of WW2 - the most succesful in world history - still required huge armies grinding right into the very center German capital to end the war. Hell - in Japan's case, they had to use atomic weapons.

Russia's war plans can't possibly work for their strategic objectives. Highly unlikely their enabler China would allow the nuke threshold to be crossed. It's also unlikely nukes would make Ukraine stop fighting - this is alredy a war of annihilation for them. If Russia used nukes, you would see radiological weapons and suicide bombers all over Moscow in about 48 hours. Nobody wants that, and you don't nuke territory you claim belongs to you anyways. Enough about nukes - this war is a venn diagram of the intersection Russian brutalist hubris and sunk cost fallacy for Putin. But what about Ukraine's strategy?

Tactically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to defend hard points viciously, maximize russian casualties to make progress as painful as possible. When necessary, they fall back to the next prepared lines and continuously harass all aspects of the Russian lines with drones, artillery and opportunistic counter-assaults. In short - trading small slices of land for maximal russian blood. This will continue as long as Ukraine can man positions and deploy drones.

Strategically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to survive as a viable, sovriegn state with the means to defend itself and some reliable security guarantees. Ukraine does not have to eject Russia from the occupied territories now to win. It just has to make it impossible for the Russians to stay.

One of these sides' plans is better than the other.

There will be a post-Putin power struggle, which will create instablity in Russia and possibly opportunities to regain Crimean and Donbas territory without having to fight bloody battles for them. Ukraine is suffering, and they deserve a just victory, but is a bad peace that lets Putin, Trump and their black hearted stooges regain power in 5-10 years worth it? How does Ukraine actually secure long term peace? It may be in the long run better to bleed the russian war machine until it dies instead of letting them off the hook for the fatal mistake they've made. Easy for me to say at a keyboard, I understand. But Ukrainians are smart and know Russia's predatory nature. I don't know what they'll do, but I'm sure they know they can't trust Russia going forward.

In short - Rutte is telling the Russians here that they have to negotiate and compromise. Peace is an ugly process. Just like sausage - you don't want to see how it's made.

Been a cluster of radically reduced payments for signup, delays in soldier pay, and now a drastic reduction in death benefits just in the last few weeks.

Seems like boring economic news at one level - but this is very VERY important to the essential calculus of this war. A war, remember, that from the russian side is being fought - officially - by volunteers and mercenaires. They are financially driven by definition - Not ideologically or as conscripts who have no choice.

Millions of russians and have opted in because of the life-changing money they earn on signup and upon death. If those incentives are going away, it's a massive signal that:

• Russia is no longer willing or able to spend it's way out of this war
• There has been a change in strategic urgency to maintain their current recruitment pace
• Ukraine's attacks against oil & gas facilities and the russian economy has been succesful

These are loud and clear signals that they are ramping things down - whether Mordor wants to or not. And that the political regions Russia counts on to provide low-value grunts are not receiving sufficient economic support from Moscow.

I mean - take a step back. This will absolutely reduce recruitment to near zero in these regions. At a time where daily casualty rates are regularly breaking 2,000 per day as the Russian army flounders with their tactics of 'mush forward, sit in a hole and wait to die'.

Russia isn't going to TELL you when they're collapsing. But the signs are adding up. Think about the sequence of decisions that lead to local admins curtailing death benefits - the ESSENTIAL purpose for signing up for a failing invasion. Guys that no longer have an incentive to sigup today means there are less bodies to fill the line 3 months from now. Maybe less. Trump had his balls cut off. The lines aren't moving at all. Russia is at least going through the theatrics of formal peace talks, even if their starting positions are completely absurd. Since they only understand power and pain, they would only be asking for peace, even in their obtuse masochistic way, if they have no other options.

We're very likely in the endgame here.

Another indicator that the russians are struggling with the ongoing economics of the war. Deferring salaries by a month for non-Ukraine engaged personnel.

Not optimal. Russia isn't going to tell us when their ability to sustain this war is starting to crumble, but there will be signs.

For a state that relies on the security services brutalizing dissent to maintain control, missing soldiers' paycheques is bad juju.

It also suggests that there is a maximum size to how big an army Moscow can support, and that they're likely at that limit. "Bottomless, Infinite Russia". LAFF. Only in terms of their brutality and depravity.

Russian recruitment bonuses are worth paying attention to. It is a hard signal of what they think they need and where they're going in the mid-term. They can't really hide this number like they can their casualty or production rates. The signup bonus price is an indicator of both the demand from the Russian army and the labour cost from the general population

When it spiked to ludicrous numbers, it signalled commitment to their plan of conquest, and to spend their way out of failure. Seeing the rate drop like this in such a vital place like St. Petersburg shows both budget realities and resignation setting in. $40,000 is life changing money for many russians, and maybe worth dying for, at least for your family. $4,000 is not.

Their entire war strategy at this point is Infantry Inflitration (or Infestation) + Terror Bombing. That'a strategy that moves slowly and chews up men. Russia haven't mobilized post-election like they threatened, and they are ramping down their recruitment bonuses. All that while personnel losses are reaching their highest levels of the entire war.

Those points are all related - their strategy went from artillery and armor to mobile infantry infiltration, which skyrocketed the casualty volume and recruitment costs. It also didn't produce better soldiers. Infantry isn't like appliances where it's better if you pay more. If anything, it's the opposite. The quality of the Average Fighting Man seemed to have fallen as the recruiment costs got more and more expensive. Lots of people were fretting about the tired cliche that 'Russia is bottomless, resistance is pointless'. Those same voices said russia could always at least hold the line in terms of recruiment numbers compared to their losses (which they denied anyways). That barely comes up anymore, and the only thing that's bottomless is their depravity. Maybe it turns out that simply maintaining raw numbers of men in uniform doesn't make for an effective assuault strategy. Quality matters.

In short - this is a good sign that suggests they're winding things down.

I mean - the cynicism and greed just oozes out of all the recent U.S. efforts pretending to be peace initiatives. They care about restoring the money bridge, not about ending the war.

But - we live in an imperfect world of realpolitik. Their greed can be used in pusuit of peace, you suppose. The war ending would be an objectively good thing, despite the secondary motives of the soulless greaseball vampires pushing for it.

Take a step back. What does this American push to restore economic and energy ties tell us? Other than that they are black hearted gangsters consumed by greed first and compassion, not at all? Well, it shows Russia's dependence on oil and gas, and it's urgent need to restore cash inflows. That is a lingering weakness that can be attacked. Ukraine would like external security guarantees, but in the absence of that....they now how to make the petromafia gangsters squeal if they get all invade-y again.

It's gross, but remember what this all means: Ukraine is going to survive this war, as a sovreign, EU aligned country with no delusions about the threat Russia poses on an ongoing basis. And it will rebuild. Things won't be the same as they were before, but Ukraine's future is the same as Poland, Romania and Czechoslovakia. Different, but prosperous and independent. Out of the Russian sphere. This is a permament divorce, and Ukraine will be vigilant about future corrosive fuckery. It seems unlikely they'll allow a Viktor Orban to emerge there like he did in Hungary.

If you were a Ukrainian supporter honest with yourself in terms of what would happen 5 years on after an invasion, you'd be happy where we are today. Especially if we told you that for half of that war, a KGB agent was the president of the United States.

There are a number of small truces that point to non-public, ongoing negotiations that both sides are at least acknowledging, if not fully respecting.

Ukraine has held off attacking russian oil refineries for weeks. Russia did sent in engineering teams around Oleshky to remove mines and barriers for humanitarian corridors. There is some credible talk of a wider ceasefire around Kherson. What's being given and gotten is anybody's guess. And it's kind of besides the point, anyways.

Point being - the two sides are clearly talking and making concessions they seem to be able to live with, at least locally and temporarily. You could pick apart the relevance of each - but, there's already enough cynicism in this war. The glimmer of ongoing dialog is positive.

More than that, it suggests an open channel - Finally. A basis for future, more expansive peace talks. For that to happen, it suggests both sides are realizing they have to make some kind of compromises.

Peace is like sausage - you don't want to see the process of how it's made.

Few things.

1. Clearly Ukraine COULD continue to strike russian refineries.
2. They aren't doing it. They have not hit a refinery in three weeks. They've hit arms factories, not refineries
3. Ergo - an agreement is currently in place that the U.S. & Russia asked for, and Ukraine agreed to.

But what and why? What's in it for ukraine to pause refinery strikes and therefore help Putin and Trump? What did the Russians and Trump give to Zelensky to get Ukraine to pause? How could Ukraine trust any agreement made by these vile gangster goblins? Russian attacks haven't stopped at all.

In the context of the U.S. midterm election, it seems moot. Gas & Diesel prices haven't changed, and seems likely most americans have already decided who they're voting for. This isn't going to change anything there. But it definitely helps Putin with shortages and money.

Why would Zelensky agree to this pause? Thoughts?

What is the relevance of the date? Nov 4th is the day after the U.S. midterm elections, which says a lot about the state of the U.S. allegiances these days.

Trump, Elon and Putin have something planned, that is very clear from the coordinated actions of all of them. Their futures are completely intertwined, and you'd be foolish to expect they are just going to roll over and accept a Republican defeat in the midterms - it is literally their lives and fortunes at stake for them. They're going to cheat like hell to keep Trump where he is and their pet projects of misery running.

It also suggests Russia's basic framework is to have the U.S. bully Ukraine into a peace favorable to Russia that it can't get on it's own military and strategic merits.

Sounds bleak right? It is, but also - it shows desperation from Russia. They are the ones asking to normalize the U.S. imposing peace terms on Ukraine, despite the fact that the U.S. is no longer a backer of Ukraine in any way. Europe is specifically excluded. Russia's threat of mass mobilization didn't happen, and probably won't in meaningful numbers. They continue to try to bring in poor africans to die for them instead. There is essentially no movement on the battlefield and nothing Russia seems to be doing to change that fundamentally. Instead, they pivot to corrosive, bad-faith peace talks and the U.S. doing it's best to extort Ukraine by denying it support, Starlink and trying to make them diplomatically isolated.

It's absurd. Its also desparate. But that's not the story here - the story is Ukraine and Europe still 'hold the cards' about how this conflict ends. Russia, Trump and Elon fully understand the danger they're in.

In the longer term, if the Russians are successful at seating their corrosive populist stooges in France and Germany in the next couple of years - then things will get very bleak indeed for Ukraine. But we're not there yet, the russian army and economy will be even weaker by then and a lot may change with Trump if he isn't successful at pulling off his coup against american democracy, or better yet - if he croaks trying.

Are they serious? Hard to say, but every public statement has a purpose. It's serious work trying to understand what Russia's actions mean.

Both sides have some dark skies ahead. For the Russians, they are bleeding unsustainably and not achieving much. And Trump's usefulness is about to be curtailed. Xi is probably not convinced of much more progress to keep investing in.

Ukraine is suffering from Russian terror every day and sees some thunderclouds ahead with rising populists in France and Germany that aren't shy about reducing Ukrainian support in the coming years.

Maybe they're serious about ending this phase. Long term - that's another kettle of fish, but...maybe it's time. Wars are often indecisive and their conclusions unsatisfying. It's the years after that matter.

Why does this matter? China gets more than 50% discount on LNG imports from Russia is a massive sign of Russian desperation and China putting the screws to them.

Russia isn't doing this because they really like China. This shows they have no leverage or options at this point. The big picture of money coming in for Russia greatly affects their warfighting capability. This type of agreement is worth paying attention to.

ok. Things are getting really, really weird. But. Focus on the positive. Sauron is moving to a position of settling the war. By creating some alternate reality where he negotiates a favorable peace with Ukraine.....but only with Trump and Xi. The words barely make sense to even type out....it's totally absurd. But his open talk of peace is at least some kind of good.

What leverage does he imagine that Trump and Xi can use againt Ukraine and it's European backers? Pretending that Trump and Xi speak for Ukraine is not exactly a sign of towering strength - it's a sign of absolute deranged deathcment from reality. There's absoultely no way that Trump and Xi can find a way to stop Ukraine from turning your low functioning grunts into piles of burnt spaghetti and blowing up your industrial backbone into smouldering ash. If they were capable of that, they would have done it already. So here we are, where they will put on some kind of political theatre to decide the end of a failed invasion, without the participation of one side of the war. Wait...wut? I mean.....the reality is he knows he's trapped and their perverted RUSSIA STRONK psyche can't accept simply having lost. So they do this sort of weird bullshit.

Put the crazy aside for a second - let's be equally crazy and assume that it works - however we get there, the shooting stops. Then what? Russia will immediately retool, seek to corrode Ukraine's support network, and simply resume attacks in a year or two if they get favorable political partners in Paris and Berlin. You know, stooges. That plan is actually going way too well - it's actually pretty frightening. But that will still take a couple more years to happen and Russia and Trump probably don't survive that long.

What in the name of hot fudge sundaes is even going on?

. This is nuts. Objectively ridiculous. The plan is nuttier than squirrel shit. But....fine. It screams Russian weakness, and that's a good thing. While they throw impotent tantrums about Ukrainian war mongering, their position weakens further in the near term.

This would explain why Trump has also abandoned even the flimsy disguise he had on before as a completely bought and paid for russian asset. They understand what's coming, and it's time for him to fulfill his final duty before his nuts are cut off in the midterms. No matter what mischief he runs there, all of his illegality and corrosive fuckery becomes harder to execute as he pivots to personal survival mode for the last paranoid months of his life. Once again, where the hell has the CIA been for the last 10 years while the president himself continuously shows that he is a russian asset???? Please don't answer that, it's too gross and scary to think about.

It's not all good for Ukraine. Right now, they are able to attack Russian factories and cities daily pretty effectively. The russian public that matters is finally feeling it. But - their support may be substantially weaker in 2 years. But.....Trump will be politically neutured by then. Or maybe dead. 🤞 . Ukraine emerges free, viable, wounded, Europe-aligned and with the best army in the world for fighting the Russians. Maybe one of the best armies in the world, period. Certainly the most tested drone army.

Russia, on the other hand, is going to enter a SEVERE post-war period that will make the 90's gangsterism look like child's play. You have to re-build your army personnel and hardware, which is a decades-long project. Longer than Putin's lifespan, at any rate. Domestic problems will abound, and the scramble for post-putin succession plans is going to go into hyperdrive. This will create instability and ethno-corporate warlord factionalism that might create opportunities for Ukraine to regain control over the occupied territories. A post-trump America will almost certainly be harder on Russia than Krasnov is, and China is poised to solve all it's resource challenges by ripping Russia apart. India just wants cheap energy. Russia has no good friends for a Marshall Plan or reconstruction.

It's a wild, weird phase we're in. Upside - near term, Ukraine has survived what was plainly to be a complete genocide. Downside - the mid and long term are as clear as mud. If you get a bad peace now, the sooner the next invasion happens...but the weaker russia will be.

The best thing to do might be to keep Russia bleeding until something fundamentally changes, or the orcs will soon be back. They're squealing for peace, and in absurd ways. Tough to say what the 'right' next thing to do is for Ukraine. I usually have a theory, but..... I got nothing except Slava Ukraini. Hopefully someone else who's actually smart has some idea and Comments.

It's sad to see these final betrayals from Trump and Musk, but hardly surprising. Even now, there's room for optimism though. These are desperate measures from Putin's goon squad of supervillains. That isn't even hyperbole, and it's really shocking that we barely blink an eye that the president of the US and the richest man in the world are so obviously in cahoots with the Demon King of Moscow.

But - this is supposed to be optimistic. And here's why: This is ALL they can do, and Ukraine still has the capability to say "Fuck Off".

And also an upside - their masks are fully off. You can see who the teams are and what they care about.

This is not going to change the battlefield dynamics in a time frame where both Trump and Putin are alive and in power. It will force Ukraine to find some workarounds, and may reduce their capabilities, but does nothing to improve Russia's in the near term.

There are more threats from the populists on putin's payroll in Europe - but Ukraine doesn't have to accept a bad peace just yet. There's even cause for optimism that Trump and Musk have to do these things at all - it means that Russia is at a late stage of desperation and wants them to get Russia peace it doesn't deserve on military basis.