Been a cluster of radically reduced payments for signup, delays in soldier pay, and now a drastic reduction in death benefits just in the last few weeks.

Seems like boring economic news at one level - but this is very VERY important to the essential calculus of this war. A war, remember, that from the russian side is being fought - officially - by volunteers and mercenaires. They are financially driven by definition - Not ideologically or as conscripts who have no choice.

Millions of russians and have opted in because of the life-changing money they earn on signup and upon death. If those incentives are going away, it's a massive signal that:

  • Russia is no longer willing or able to spend it's way out of this war
  • There has been a change in strategic urgency to maintain their current recruitment pace
  • Ukraine's attacks against oil & gas facilities and the russian economy has been succesful

These are loud and clear signals that they are ramping things down - whether Mordor wants to or not. And that the political regions Russia counts on to provide low-value grunts are not receiving sufficient economic support from Moscow.

I mean - take a step back. This will absolutely reduce recruitment to near zero in these regions. At a time where daily casualty rates are regularly breaking 2,000 per day as the Russian army flounders with their tactics of 'mush forward, sit in a hole and wait to die'.

Russia isn't going to TELL you when they're collapsing. But the signs are adding up. Think about the sequence of decisions that lead to local admins curtailing death benefits - the ESSENTIAL purpose for signing up for a failing invasion. Guys that no longer have an incentive to sigup today means there are less bodies to fill the line 3 months from now. Maybe less. Trump had his balls cut off. The lines aren't moving at all. Russia is at least going through the theatrics of formal peace talks, even if their starting positions are completely absurd. Since they only understand power and pain, they would only be asking for peace, even in their obtuse masochistic way, if they have no other options.

We're very likely in the endgame here.


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[–] 1 point 1 day ago (4 children)

Absolutely, probably mostly like those prisoners they sent to the front, that were shot by their superiors if they tried to run back.
Most likely this will do little to nothing to actually help Russia winning. I could even imagine it will hurt morale among the professionals and make it worse.
Seeing your comrades killed can't be good for morale I would think.

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  • [–] [S] 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

    You would think. But I've seen enough videos of russians wading forwrad through their comrades' guts to question if I really understand their psyche.

    I mean - I have trouble grasping how they don't put 1+1 together, look at the guys who went out yesterday and never came back, then get told "right - we're going to , let's go" - and not say 'hold on a minute'.

    Worse - there's tons of footage of them literally marching through completely obliterated corpse fields of their fellow soldiers, and still pushing on. I understand coercion and can grasp having a very fatalist attitude to life in general if you accept that Russian life is a grey, grinding, living hell at the best of times. But how do you just waltz through open graveyards of deconstructed human pulp and think "this is okay, I know what I'M doing, I wont end up like these guys".

    Then the last confused seconds of their lives, they hear a buzzing noise, turn to face it, then they make a stupid, terrorized face and feel a hot pressure wave for a millsecond as the drones assplode them into canned pasta.

    How do they get them to leave the camp? Why do they keep moving forward into certain death? Are they literally that fucking stupid? You understand the institutional cruelty, the barrier troops, the brutal punishments for refusing orders. But - I mean - gruseome death seems certain when you leave that trench. I mean - the reality may be that they go off marching often all over the front, and we only see the aggregated videos of successful drone strikes. It's surprising that there aren't more reports of fragging and fratricide. Or maybe there are, and the overall shit performance of their assault forces is a reflection of their lack of motivation.

    I've also seen accounts from captured soldiers that they often don't even realize that they're on an assault. Their commanders lie to them and say "go to point x, there will be supplies and comrades waiting there, then await further instructions". But in reality, they're being sent to unsecure locations, often to try and expose Ukrainian firing positions and be bullet sponges that the Russians can then try to target with artillery, drones and higher quality assault forces. That deception would explain why you sometimes see low quality, poorly equipped troops just mushing across open fields in very undisciplined looking formation as they're attacked by drones.

    I don't know dude. This war is a vulgar, disgusting thing at every level. While I'm eager for it to end, I'm also callously thankful that Russia is so stupid and arrogant that they continue to destroy themselves hopelessly. Every dead vatnik today is a loss to the russian state's ability to invade again in the future.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (2 children)

    I don't understand it either, maybe for some a sentiment that they are practically dead already, so they might as well get it over with, but also sometimes under threat of being shot from behind if they don't go forward. That part has been well documented.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 day ago (1 child)

    given those options, wouldn't you rather go into Ukrainian custody? Join the russian free legions? I dunno. As much as I'd like to say that the average soldier isn't a dangerous animal that needs to be eliminated - there is LOTS of video evidence of Russians fighting pretty damn hard, long after you'd expect them to surrender. Whatever their reasons, there is still a lot of them that fight to the death.

    The russian mind is not singular, and even if it were, it's bloody hard to understand. They don't value anyone's life, including their own, like other cultures do.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago

    given those options, wouldn’t you rather go into Ukrainian custody?

    Absolutely, but the Russian soldiers are massively indoctrinated about how Ukraine Starve and torture their prisoners, exactly to prevent that. So the average Russian soldier is fighting something they consider worse than death. We also see Russian soldiers commit suicide rather than surrender!

    there is still a lot of them that fight to the death.

    Because they believe the alternative is worse.

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