The crisis has loomed for months. In February, the United States launched a war of choice on Iran. As Iran fired back with ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones, the United States, Israel, and various Persian Gulf countries began launching Patriot surface-to-air missiles at an unsustainable rate.

Before the war on Iran, US forces had around 2,300 PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for their Patriot batteries. Just two months into the war, the Americans had fired no fewer than half of the multi-million-dollar missiles, which are some of the only air defense munitions that can swat down cruise missiles, drones, and ballistic missiles.

A feature, NOT a bug, of the Iran War. Ukraine was betrayed by its "allies".

This places Ukraine into a position where it must counterattack. This is going to be a brutal winter for Ukrainian civilians but I also think about how that is only going to awaken the dragon more in Ukraine's military, I don't see how it can break resolve rather than harden it.

Pupils from Moldova’s Transnistria region taken to war zone to attend Kremlin’s ‘patriotic education’ programmes

Paywall?

https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-november-8-2026

More and more voices in the US and Europe say it’s time to push Ukraine into a peace deal. With the diesel deal and Trump’s talk of easing sanctions on Russia, the pressure is growing. But the argument rests on the assumption that there is a deal on the table that Ukraine could take if it wanted to — and there isn't.

Given the level of of Russia's dependence on long range air strikes, it's surprising that pilot-targeting hasn't been more common. It makes sense. Certainly easier than shooting down the planes once they're in the air.

Pilots are even more valuable than planes themselves. The BBC did a wargame scenario of a Russian attack on the UK and the response - the scenario started with Russians assassinating british F35 pilots outside their homes.

Maybe the pilots have good personal security. They might need more now. What about the ground techs? Would you imagine they get the same level of protection?

Ukraine has targeted high ranking officers in cities at times. Might be an interesting tactic if they started to target the tactical and operational staff critical to Russia's strategy.

Today we’re joined by Dylan Burns, an American journalist who has arguably spent more time documenting the war at the front than anyone else from the US. This conversation focused on his newest film “One Year on the Kostiantynivka Frontline”.

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=B7aRc1oqAw4&t=0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcDgj62zCkw

Great interview!

https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-november-7-2026

Ukrainian forces reported that they recently conducted Operation Cheburechna in northern Sumy Oblast and cleared 642 hectares of forested area, leveraging rigorous operational planning and deception. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 5 that Operation Cheburechna lasted seven weeks. Ukrainian forces first targeted Russian logistical routes, advanced deep into the forests, set up ambushes, pushed back Russian forces in the area, and transferred cleared positions to other Ukrainian units.[28] GUR noted that Ukrainian month-long operational planning and the use of radio deception prevented the Russian military command from identifying Ukrainian positions and recognizing the scale of Ukrainian assault. GUR reported that Operation Cheburechna completely halted Russian offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast, while preserving Ukrainian forces’ logistical routes and positions in the area.

One of the true revolutions of this war are practical unmanned ground vehicles.

The applications for these machines for peacetime work is huge, these are essentially all terrain self powered dollies that are also giant battery stores. Further, these kinds of machines are ideal for disaster response especially the amphibious ones... and more important than the machines for disaster response are all the Ukrainian veterans who have gained extensive experience deploying unmanned vehicles in coordinated ways to save lives and solve problems.

I think there is a symbolism to the way that UGVs were used very early on by Ukraine to evacuate wounded, it mirrors the history of how pilots quickly innovated with helicopters to evacuate wounded and it is a great sign for the future of the industry of UGVs given the kaleidoscope of uses helicopters went on to find in the world as a tool.

Ukraine struck the Yaroslavl refinery bringing their total to five refineries struck in the last seven days. An OZON warehouse in Adygea was also targeted by drones. Republicans got wiped out in the American midterm elections. MAGA is dead and Trump's power to help Russia has been severely reduced.

Public statements from spokesmen like Rutte always have a purpose.

There is a dreariness to this message - but take a step back. What are Russia and Ukraine's theories of victory at this point. This is a war of conquest for Russia - what they sit on now isn't worth what they have sacrificed. Russia's war plan right now is two parts:

• 1. Infantry infiltration/infestation
• 2. Stand-off Terror bombing
• 3. Repeat until Ukraine gives you something to make it stop

That's not a great plan. Two big problems:

#1 might work for infiltration, but it doesn't work as an occupation strategy. Occupation troops don't live in blasted puddles of rainwater and charred concrete rubble. They live in barracks and conquered territory needs to be peaceful enough to merit economic activity.

#2 has never been successful in history at achieving strategic goals. Ask the americans how it's going in Iran right now with a war of long range bombardment. Russia wants regime change and conquest of enough territory to justify what they've lost. Well...they want more than that, but even THEY seem to finally understand that ain't happening. Even the strategic bombing campaigns of WW2 - the most succesful in world history - still required huge armies grinding right into the very center German capital to end the war. Hell - in Japan's case, they had to use atomic weapons.

Russia's war plans can't possibly work for their strategic objectives. Highly unlikely their enabler China would allow the nuke threshold to be crossed. It's also unlikely nukes would make Ukraine stop fighting - this is alredy a war of annihilation for them. If Russia used nukes, you would see radiological weapons and suicide bombers all over Moscow in about 48 hours. Nobody wants that, and you don't nuke territory you claim belongs to you anyways. Enough about nukes - this war is a venn diagram of the intersection Russian brutalist hubris and sunk cost fallacy for Putin. But what about Ukraine's strategy?

Tactically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to defend hard points viciously, maximize russian casualties to make progress as painful as possible. When necessary, they fall back to the next prepared lines and continuously harass all aspects of the Russian lines with drones, artillery and opportunistic counter-assaults. In short - trading small slices of land for maximal russian blood. This will continue as long as Ukraine can man positions and deploy drones.

Strategically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to survive as a viable, sovriegn state with the means to defend itself and some reliable security guarantees. Ukraine does not have to eject Russia from the occupied territories now to win. It just has to make it impossible for the Russians to stay.

One of these sides' plans is better than the other.

There will be a post-Putin power struggle, which will create instablity in Russia and possibly opportunities to regain Crimean and Donbas territory without having to fight bloody battles for them. Ukraine is suffering, and they deserve a just victory, but is a bad peace that lets Putin, Trump and their black hearted stooges regain power in 5-10 years worth it? How does Ukraine actually secure long term peace? It may be in the long run better to bleed the russian war machine until it dies instead of letting them off the hook for the fatal mistake they've made. Easy for me to say at a keyboard, I understand. But Ukrainians are smart and know Russia's predatory nature. I don't know what they'll do, but I'm sure they know they can't trust Russia going forward.

In short - Rutte is telling the Russians here that they have to negotiate and compromise. Peace is an ugly process. Just like sausage - you don't want to see how it's made.