There are a number of small truces that point to non-public, ongoing negotiations that both sides are at least acknowledging, if not fully respecting.

Ukraine has held off attacking russian oil refineries for weeks. Russia did sent in engineering teams around Oleshky to remove mines and barriers for humanitarian corridors. There is some credible talk of a wider ceasefire around Kherson. What's being given and gotten is anybody's guess. And it's kind of besides the point, anyways.

Point being - the two sides are clearly talking and making concessions they seem to be able to live with, at least locally and temporarily. You could pick apart the relevance of each - but, there's already enough cynicism in this war. The glimmer of ongoing dialog is positive.

More than that, it suggests an open channel - Finally. A basis for future, more expansive peace talks. For that to happen, it suggests both sides are realizing they have to make some kind of compromises.

Peace is like sausage - you don't want to see the process of how it's made.

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[–] 2 points 1 week ago* (2 children)

Oleshky itself, suggest Russia's motives go far beyond addressing the humanitarian catastrophe it created itself.

As if they even care.

Regarding Ukraine not bombing oil refineries, I am pretty sure that is because Trump closed access to Starshield.
My guess is that after the election Ukraine will bomb oil facilities again.

it suggests both sides are realizing they have to make some kind of compromises.

I wonder what compromise Putin would agree to, because Zelenskyj has already suggested peace along the current front lines.
But Putin seems absolutely unyielding and demanding territory they don't control.
There is also a lot of speculation that the end of the war could also be the end of Putin.

Peace is like sausage - you don’t want to see the process of how it’s made.

🤣🤣🤣

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 child)

    No, of course Russias doesn't care in a humanitarian sense. They are purely transactional, and hence the curiosity around what they "get" for pausing their brutality. I mean - there are lots of reports of them funelling evacuees into Crimea or russian occupied land, so this is kidnapping by other means. Those people are now fresh slaves, and will never see Ukraine again without escaping.

    RE: your point about negotiations - Russia's tradition is maximalist demands. Demand everything, compromise nothing, and wait for the feckless pussies to give you something you didn't have before, because.....they always will. They want peace more than you do, so why compromise anything? This is a childish tactic, but they're a childish country. They don't have the same leverage than they have had in past conflicts though, becuase Ukraine is on what's called 'death's ground'. There is not really much for Ukraine to compromise on.

    Nobody expects this malevolent version of the Russian Federation to honor any peace long term, which wipes a lot of the tangible negotation pieces right off the board.

    If Putin died today, they war would end. But I think there are still a lot of ways he can survive for several more years even if they simply froze the conflict. Russians will be furious with the piddling return they got on this war, but what are they going to do? There is no organized resistance and Putin has shown high skill in staying on top of even the tiniest ember of local rivals. He is still the intelligence services' chosen avatar to run the state, and there's a case to be made that his Rough Daddy act might be exactly what Russia needs to endure the next decade of domestic gangsterism as the war veterans return home to a permanetly lessened economy at home.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    Good observations, and I 100% agree on everything. 👍😀
    The uncompromising negotiation tactic is not just a Putin thing, it's a Russian thing. This was kind of how Reagan forced the communists to their knees. Unfortunately Putin isn't any better.

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